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  • Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings: 2016 Week 13 NFL Pick - Dallas Cowboys (10-1) at Minnesota Vikings (6-5) This line has shifted from 2 in favor of the visiting Cowboys on the early line last week to 4 now this week. Ordinarily, big week-to-week shifts like that are the result of overreactions to a single week of play and create line value, but I think this [...]
  • Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens: 2016 Week 12 NFL Pick - Cincinnati Bengals (3-6-1) at Baltimore Ravens (5-5) Already in the middle of a down year, the Bengals suffered two major injuries last week, as running back Giovani Bernard went down for the season with a torn ACL and #1 wide receiver AJ Green went down for an extended period of time with a strained hamstring. [...]
  • Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles: 2016 Week 12 NFL Pick - Green Bay Packers (4-6) at Philadelphia Eagles (5-5) I’ve been going back and forth on whether or not I want to put any money on the Packers this week. They should be the right side, but they’ve been so inconsistent this season that it’s tough to be confident in them. Early in the year, it [...]
  • Carolina Panthers at Oakland Raiders: 2016 Week 12 NFL Pick - Carolina Panthers (4-6) at Oakland Raiders (8-2) Along with Denver/Kansas City, this is another game where I’m holding out hope that the line drops to a field goal before gametime. This line is currently 3.5 in favor of the hometown Oakland Raiders, but 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal so [...]
  • Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos: 2016 Week 12 NFL Pick - Kansas City Chiefs (7-3) at Denver Broncos (7-3) The Chiefs are 7-3, but they’ve been overly reliant on close wins (4 of 7 wins by a touchdown or less), winning the turnover margin (+13 on the season, best in the NFL), and return touchdowns (+4 return touchdown margin). Those things tend to be very inconsistent [...]
  • New England Patriots at New York Jets: 2016 Week 12 NFL Pick - New England Patriots (8-2) at New York Jets (3-7) The Patriots are right in the middle of a very cushy stretch of their schedule, as they play the 49ers, Jets, and Rams in back-to-back-to-back weeks. Those are three of the worst teams in the league. As a result, they have no upcoming distractions and should [...]
  • San Francisco 49ers at Miami Dolphins: 2016 Week 12 NFL Pick - San Francisco 49ers (1-9) at Miami Dolphins (6-4) The Browns haven’t won a game this season, but there’s an argument to be made that the 1-9 49ers are the worst team in the league this season. They don’t rank dead last in first down rate differential, but that’s only because of a 28-0 blowout win [...]
  • San Diego Chargers at Houston Texans: 2016 Week 12 NFL Pick - San Diego Chargers (4-6) at Houston Texans (6-4) The Chargers are just 4-6, but they’ve been significantly better than their record this season. All 6 of their losses came by 8 points or fewer, so they’ve been competitive in every game. Their +14 point differential is solid and they rank 7th in first down rate [...]
  • New York Giants at Cleveland Browns: 2016 Week 12 NFL Pick - New York Giants (7-3) at Cleveland Browns (0-11) The Giants haven’t won a game by more than a touchdown all season and have a 7-2 record in games decided by a touchdown or less. Ordinarily, I like to pick against teams that are regularly squeaking out victories, especially as big favorites and especially as big [...]
  • Arizona Cardinals at Atlanta Falcons: 2016 Week 12 NFL Pick - Arizona Cardinals (4-5-1) at Atlanta Falcons (6-4) I picked the Cardinals as 2 point underdogs in Minnesota last week and they outplayed the Vikings for most of the game, but ultimately lost 30-24 thanks to not one, but two 100+ yard return touchdowns by Minnesota, the first team to do that in a game in [...]