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  • Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots: 2016 AFC Championship Pick - Pittsburgh Steelers (13-5) at New England Patriots (15-2) Like the Packers in the NFC, the Steelers enter this game on a long winning streak, winning 9 straight games to go from 4-5 to 11-5, the 3rd seed in the AFC, 2 playoff wins, and an AFC Championship appearance. However, the Steelers have two big obstacles [...]
  • Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons: 2016 NFC Championship Pick - Green Bay Packers (12-6) at Atlanta Falcons (12-5) Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are red hot right now and understandably getting a lot of attention. Since an unimpressive 4-6 start, the Packers have won 8 straight games to make the playoffs with a 10-6 record and to win two playoff games and advance to the [...]
  • Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs: 2016 AFC Divisional Round Pick - Pittsburgh Steelers (12-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (12-4) The Chiefs have been on my overrated list for a while. Despite their 12-4 record, they rank dead last among remaining the 8 remaining playoff teams in first down rate differential. Their record is largely the result of 6 wins by 8 points or less (including two [...]
  • Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys: 2016 NFC Divisional Round Pick - Green Bay Packers (11-6) at Dallas Cowboys (13-3) This is another game I’ve gone back and forth on all week. On one hand, the Packers are hot right now and the Cowboys haven’t had much homefield advantage in recent years.  Since 2010, they are 31-24 ATS on the road, as opposed to 20-36 ATS at [...]
  • Houston Texans at New England Patriots: 2016 AFC Divisional Round Pick - Houston Texans (10-7) at New England Patriots (14-2) The Patriots are 16 point favorites here in this matchup with the Houston Texans, the first time a team has been favored by that many points in the playoffs since the 1998 Minnesota Vikings blew out the Arizona Cardinals 41-21 as 16 point home favorites in the [...]
  • Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons: 2016 NFC Divisional Round Pick - Seattle Seahawks (11-5-1) at Atlanta Falcons (11-5) This might sound weird considering they finished with the 2nd best record in the NFC and secured a first round bye, but I think the Falcons are an underrated team. In a year with so few top level teams, I don’t understand why the Falcons are not regularly [...]
  • New York Giants at Green Bay Packers: 2016 NFL Wild Card Round Pick - New York Giants (11-5) at Green Bay Packers (10-6) I always talk about the inconsistency of turnover margins and why using past turnover margins as evidence for predictions of future turnover margins is basically useless. On average, a team that wins the turnover battle by 4 in a game has a turnover margin of +0.0 [...]
  • Detroit Lions at Seattle Seahawks: 2016 NFL Wild Card Round Pick - Detroit Lions (9-7) at Seattle Seahawks (10-5-1) Detroit made the playoffs with a 9-7 record, despite losing their final 3 games of the regular season, but they’re one of a few playoff teams I don’t think much of (Houston, Oakland, and Miami are the others). They’re the only playoff team that hasn’t beaten another playoff [...]
  • Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans: 2016 NFL Wild Card Round Pick - Oakland Raiders (12-4) at Houston Texans (9-7) The Texans won the AFC South and will host a home playoff game, but they had probably the worst regular season of any team that made the playoffs. Their 9 wins came by a combined 44 points with their biggest margin of victory being 9 points, back in [...]
  • Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2016 NFL Wild Card Round Pick - Miami Dolphins (10-6) at Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5) The Dolphins made the playoffs for the first time since 2008 thanks to a 10-6 record, but they still have a lot of problems and are not as good as their record suggests. Many of their wins were close, while many of their losses were not. They went [...]