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2014 NFL Mock Draft Updated 5/8/14

  • Minnesota Vikings at Buffalo Bills: 2014 Week 7 NFL Pick - Minnesota Vikings (2-4) at Buffalo Bills (3-3) The Bills have generally been very good at home over the past 2 seasons, going 7-3 ATS in Buffalo, but they’re only 1-1 ATS as favorites. I think this line is way too high at 5.5. The Bills are 3-3, but they’re not as good as their record, [...]
  • Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams: 2014 Week 7 NFL Pick - Seattle Seahawks (3-2) at St. Louis Rams (1-4) The Seahawks had a very disappointing loss at home to the Cowboys last week, a 30-23 game that wasn’t nearly as close as the final score. That was just the Seahawks 2nd home loss since they drafted Russell Wilson in 2012. However, they generally bounce back off [...]
  • San Francisco 49ers at Denver Broncos: 2014 Week 7 NFL Pick - San Francisco 49ers (4-2) at Denver Broncos (4-1) I’m completely torn on this one as there’s conflicting stuff on both sides. On one hand, the Broncos have a big divisional game against the Chargers up next in just 4 days on Thursday Night Football. Teams are 33-55 ATS since 2008 as favorites before Thursday Night [...]
  • Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2014 Week 7 NFL Pick - Houston Texans (3-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (3-3) People are pretty down on the Steelers here after their loss to the Browns as the public is all over the Texans. I love fading the public, especially when the public is on the underdog. If the Texans are really as likely to win as the public thinks, [...]
  • Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2014 Week 7 NFL Pick - Cleveland Browns (3-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-6) There are reasons to take the Jaguars this week. Teams that are 0-5 or worse are 43-20 ATS since 1989 as underdogs off of a loss of 1-8 points. The Jaguars almost got their first win of the season last week in a two point loss in Tennessee [...]
  • Arizona Cardinals at Oakland Raiders: 2014 Week 7 NFL Pick - Arizona Cardinals (4-1) at Oakland Raiders (0-5) The Cardinals are 4-1 and have one of the best records in football, but they’re a very flawed, fraudulent 4-1. The Cardinals are just +10 in point differential despite their record and they’ve needed to win the turnover battle by 8 just to do that. Winning the turnover battle [...]
  • Miami Dolphins at Chicago Bears: 2014 Week 7 NFL Pick - Miami Dolphins (2-3) at Chicago Bears (3-3) All the trends say the Dolphins are the right side here. While the Bears have to go to New England next week, one of the toughest places in the NFL to win, the Dolphins go to Jacksonville, arguably the easiest place in the NFL to win. Teams usually [...]
  • Seattle Seahawks trade WR Percy Harvin to the New York Jets - Trade for Seahawks: A lot of people are saying this move was a mistake for the Seahawks because trading him now means they’re going to end up paying him 18.3 million for 27 catches and 238 snaps played (including post-season). That’s about 678K per catch and about 64.6K per snap played. The Seahawks gave up [...]
  • Tennessee Titans at Washington Redskins: 2014 Week 7 NFL Pick - Tennessee Titans (2-4) at Washington Redskins (1-5) At first glance, it looks like we’re getting line value with the Redskins. Despite the Redskins’ 1-5 record, they are 10th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 73.50% rate, as opposed to 71.74% for their opponents. Meanwhile, the Titans are 29th at -7.00%, moving [...]
  • New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions: 2014 Week 7 NFL Pick - New Orleans Saints (2-3) at Detroit Lions (4-2) I still believe in the Saints. They’re 9th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a rate 81.82%, while their opponents are moving them at a 78.71%, a differential of 3.11% for the Saints. Why are they 2-3 then? Well, two of their [...]

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