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2014 NFL Mock Draft Updated 5/8/14

  • Cleveland Browns at Atlanta Falcons: 2014 Week 12 NFL Pick - Cleveland Browns (6-4) at Atlanta Falcons (4-6) This is probably the game I have a least feel for this week. On one hand, the Browns are a little bit better than the Falcons and this line at 3 suggests that these two teams are even with homefield advantage. The Browns rank 17th in rate of [...]
  • St. Louis Rams at San Diego Chargers: 2014 Week 12 NFL Pick - St. Louis Rams (4-6) at San Diego Chargers (6-4) I’m completely split on this. On one hand, the Rams could easily be overconfident and off of a fluky win over the Broncos last week. The Broncos had more first downs (21 and 16) and an equal amount of offensive touchdowns (1), as the Rams were [...]
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears: 2014 Week 12 NFL Pick - Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-8) at Chicago Bears (4-6) The Bears have a much tougher game next week against the Lions in Detroit in just 4 days on Thanksgiving after this game against the Buccaneers. Favorites of 6 or more (which the Bears are here) are just 46-80 ATS before being underdogs of 6 or more [...]
  • Washington Redskins at San Francisco 49ers: 2014 Week 12 NFL Pick - Washington Redskins (3-7) at San Francisco 49ers (6-4) The San Francisco 49ers are 9 point favorites here at home over the Washington Redskins, but I think that line is much too high. For one thing, San Francisco has actually played significantly worse than their record this season, as they rank 19th in rate of moving [...]
  • Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings: 2014 Week 12 NFL Pick - Green Bay Packers (7-3) at Minnesota Vikings (4-6) The Packers have scored 108 points over the past two weeks, outscoring Chicago and Philadelphia by a combined total of 108-34 in back-to-back home games. However, now they have to go on the road, which has been a much bigger challenge for them. This season, they are [...]
  • Tennessee Titans at Philadelphia Eagles: 2014 Week 12 NFL Pick - Tennessee Titans (2-8) at Philadelphia Eagles (7-3) Both of these teams will be divisional road underdogs next week, Philadelphia in Dallas and Tennessee in Houston, so both of them are in bad spots. Teams are 86-106 ATS since 2002 as non-divisional home favorites before being divisional road underdogs, while non-divisional road underdogs are 51-80 ATS [...]
  • New York Jets at Buffalo Bills in Detroit: 2014 Week 12 NFL Pick - New York Jets (2-8) at Buffalo Bills (5-5) in Detroit In case you haven’t heard, this game is getting moved from Buffalo to Detroit as a result of the massive snowstorm that hit Buffalo this weekend. This line moved from 4.5 to 3 as a result, but I don’t think that’s nearly a big enough [...]
  • Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks: 2014 Week 12 NFL Pick - Arizona Cardinals (9-1) at Seattle Seahawks (6-4) It takes a lot for me to go against Seattle at home, given how consistently good they’ve been there in recent years. Since 2007, the Seahawks are 45-20 at home, including playoffs and they aren’t just having success straight up as they are 43-21-1 ATS. They outscore opponents [...]
  • Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants: 2014 Week 12 NFL Pick - Dallas Cowboys (7-3) at New York Giants (3-7) One of the more powerful trends says that road favorites of 3 or more are incredibly dominant off of a bye, going 40-12 ATS since 2002, including 21-4 ATS in divisional matchups, like this one here. It makes sense. The Cowboys are a significantly better team than [...]
  • Detroit Lions at New England Patriots: 2014 Week 12 NFL Pick - Detroit Lions (7-3) at New England Patriots (8-2) The Patriots have scored 243 points in the last 6 weeks since that embarrassing loss in Kansas City, more than 21 teams have scored all season. Over those past 6 weeks, they are moving the chains at an 82.74% rate, as opposed to 73.76% for their opponents. [...]

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