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2014 NFL Mock Draft Updated 5/8/14

  • Cincinnati Bengals at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2014 Week 13 NFL Pick - Cincinnati Bengals (7-3-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-9) At first glance, the Buccaneers are in a terrible spot. After this game, they have to go to Detroit, where they could easily be double digit underdogs. The early line was 9, but after Detroit looked good on national TV on Thanksgiving that line could be pushed [...]
  • Oakland Raiders at St. Louis Rams: 2014 Week 13 NFL Pick - Oakland Raiders (1-10) at St. Louis Rams (4-7) One of the most powerful trends says that teams that finish 6-10 or worse cover the spread as 6+ point favorites about a quarter of the time historically. The problem with this trend is it’s often very hard to know whether or not a team favored by 6 [...]
  • Carolina Panthers at Minnesota Vikings: 2014 Week 13 NFL Pick - Carolina Panthers (3-7-1) at Minnesota Vikings (4-7) This line is right about where it should be at 2.5 in favor of the Vikings. The Panthers are a little bit better than the Vikings on the season, moving the chains at a 71.84% rate, as opposed to 76.04% for their opponents, a differential of -4.21% that [...]
  • Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans: 2014 Week 13 NFL Pick - Tennessee Titans (2-9) at Houston Texans (5-6) The Titans are in their 2nd of two road games which is typically a good spot for teams. Teams are 110-74 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 93-52 ATS when it’s their 2nd straight (and not 3rd straight) road game and they next play [...]
  • New York Giants at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2014 Week 13 NFL Pick - New York Giants (3-8) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-10) At first glance, as bad as the Jaguars are, this line does make sense. The Jaguars rank 30th, moving the chains at a 65.53% rate, as opposed to 73.01% for their opponents, a differential of -7.48%. However, the Giants aren’t exactly great, moving the chains at a [...]
  • Miami Dolphins at New York Jets: 2014 Week 13 NFL Pick - Miami Dolphins (6-5) at New York Jets (2-9) The Jets were blown out last Monday, losing 38-3 in Detroit to the Bills in a game that had both its time and its location moved by a snow storm in Buffalo. Teams generally don’t do well off of a Monday Night blowout loss, going 18-28 ATS [...]
  • Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Bills: 2014 Week 13 NFL Pick - Cleveland Browns (7-4) at Buffalo Bills (6-5) I’m completely split on this one. On one hand, the Browns are in their 2nd of two road games, which tends to be a good spot for teams. Teams are 46-26 ATS since 2008 as road underdogs off of a win as road underdogs. This is because teams [...]
  • Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions: 2014 Week 13 NFL Pick - Chicago Bears (4-7) at Detroit Lions (7-4) The Lions are in a nice spot here, after a very tough and unrewarding road trip that sent them to Arizona and New England, who are a combined 18-4. Teams that lose back-to-back road games are 43-25 ATS in their next game as long as they still have [...]
  • New Orleans Saints at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2014 Week 13 NFL Pick - New Orleans Saints (4-7) at Pittsburgh Steelers (7-4) I am legitimately shocked. The Saints had won 20 straight home games as long as they had both Drew Brees under center and Sean Payton on the sideline and they had 3 straight home games as favorites to move to 7-4 and run away with the pathetic [...]
  • Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys: 2014 Week 13 NFL Pick - Philadelphia Eagles (8-3) at Dallas Cowboys (8-3) The Cowboys have been horrible as home favorites since 2010, going 7-22 ATS in that situation. This isn’t unique to them as the whole NFC East recently has had less homefield advantage than average recently. At home, the NFC East is 73-82 since 2010, outscoring opponents by an [...]

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