Kansas City Chiefs (1-7) at Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3) The Chiefs have yet to lead in regulation through 8 games, the first time a team has done that since 1929 and that team folded after the season. Actually, they were also the first team to do that through 7 games since 1929 as well. However, they [...]
Denver Broncos (5-3) at Carolina Panthers (2-6) The Broncos sit at 5-3 and rank 2nd in yards per play differential and 9th in rate of sustaining drives differential with momentum on their side and they’ve done this despite one of the toughest schedules in the league thus far. From this point on, they have one of the [...]
Houston Texans (7-1) at Chicago Bears (7-1) I’ve called Chicago the best team in the NFL on several occasions. It’s close, but they are the team I’d least want to play right now. Atlanta may be undefeated, but they’ve had a very easy schedule and aren’t blowing guys out like the Bears are, winning 5 [...]
Tennessee Titans (3-6) at Miami Dolphins (4-4) Jake Locker returns this week for the Titans. It’s amazing. It’s almost as if his shoulder magically healed as soon as veteran backup Matt Hasselbeck had a bad game. Locker has more upside definitely and is the right quarterback for this team right now, because they’re not going [...]
Dallas Cowboys (3-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-5) Last week, I enjoyed a relatively successful week. I hit 4 of my 6 big plays and went 9-5 overall, but it could have been a lot better. I hit my first 4 big plays and if I had hit my last 2, I would have enjoyed my [...]
St. Louis Rams (3-5) at San Francisco 49ers (6-2) The rule of thumb in NFC West divisional matchups is to always take the home team. Since 2007, the NFC West is 104-77 in general at home and they have not only the best ATS winning percentage of any division in football in that time period, [...]
Detroit Lions (4-4) at Minnesota Vikings (5-4) Like Indianapolis +1 at Jacksonville, this game is one I really wished I would have made a play on last week. Like Jacksonville, Minnesota was a favorite last week in the early line for this game, -2.5, but now they are +2.5 here at home, a massive line [...]
San Diego Chargers (4-4) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-4) The Buccaneers are surging thanks to Doug Martin’s improved play and the improved chemistry between Josh Freeman and new free agent deep threat acquisition Vincent Jackson. Josh Freeman has a cannon for an arm, but he wasn’t using it last year, throwing 20 yards downfield or [...]
New York Giants (6-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-5) If it wasn’t for Hurricane Sandy, I would have picked against the Giants last week. I thought they were in a really bad spot at home for the Steelers, but because the Steelers had to travel on the day of the game because of the Hurricane, I [...]
Atlanta Falcons (8-0) at New Orleans Saints (3-5) The Falcons are an undefeated 8-0, but they have not played a tough schedule (it doesn’t really get harder) and they’ve won 5 of their 8 games by a touchdown or less, including 4 at home. Their +77 points differential is just 6th in the NFL. Typically, [...]
Buffalo Bills (3-5) at New England Patriots (5-3) Poor Bills. Last week they had to face the Texans and now they have to face the Patriots. Well, maybe it’s not so bad. While teams struggle as double digit dogs before being double digit dogs, 22-42 ATS since 2002, a situation the Bills lost in last [...]
Oakland Raiders (3-5) at Baltimore Ravens (6-2) The Ravens may be 6-2, but dating back to week 1, this team has not won a single game by 10 or more and only one was decided by more than a touchdown, last week at Cleveland, a game in which the lowly Browns actually scored more frequently [...]
New York Jets (3-5) at Seattle Seahawks (5-4) I’m so glad there isn’t a heavy public lean on Seattle this week. As some of you may know, the public killed the odds makers in unprecedented fashion last week, going 12-2 and winning every heavy lean. The odds makers aren’t going broke or anything. They killed [...]
Indianapolis Colts (5-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-7) Every once in a while I kick myself for not taking a line the week before. I’ve never put money on an early line, but here’s one instance I wish I had. Jacksonville was -1 last week. Even if Indianapolis had lost to Miami, I would have put [...]
Week 9 Results ATS: 9-5 +4 units/+$270 SU: 11-3 Upset Picks: 3-2 +600 Over/Under: 0-1 -110 Total: +$760 Public Results ATS*: 12-2 +32 units 2012 results to date ATS: 66-61-5 +14 units/-$115 SU: 85-47 Upset Picks: 25-24 +$2140 Over/Under: 5-3-1 +170 Parlays: 1-0 +100 Total: +2295 Survivor: 7-2 (HOU, NE, NO, BAL, SF, ATL, CHI, [...]