Nov 162012
 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-4) at Carolina Panthers (2-7) The Buccaneers have really turned it around lately and are now road favorites in Carolina, pretty crazy considering they were road dogs in Oakland a couple weeks ago, 6 point dogs in Minnesota the week before that, home dogs for the Saints the week before that, and [...]

Nov 162012
 

Cleveland Browns (2-7) at Dallas Cowboys (4-5) As many of you who read these picks regularly know, I love using yards per play differential and rate of sustaining drives differential to compute real line. Yards per play differential measures how well a team does on an average play (offensive or defensive) and overrates teams that [...]

Nov 162012
 

Green Bay Packers (6-3) at Detroit Lions (4-5) I don’t think it’s possible to talk about the Packers without first talking about how bad their injury situation has gotten. Already missing stud middle linebacker Desmond Bishop and replacement DJ Smith for the season, the Packers have also put starting right tackle Bryan Bulaga and starting [...]

Nov 152012
 

New Orleans Saints (4-5) at Oakland Raiders (3-6) The Saints are overrated. Yes, they knocked off Atlanta, but Dallas, Carolina, Washington, and Oakland almost did so. Their defense is still a joke. Because of their defense, they rank 28th in yards per play differential and 25th in rate of sustaining drives differential. Their defense ranks dead last [...]

Nov 152012
 

Indianapolis Colts (6-3) at New England Patriots (6-3) The Colts have been underrated all year. From being home dogs against Minnesota and Miami to being just -3 at home for Jacksonville (though they did lose) and -1 at home for Cleveland to being +3.5 against the Jets in New York (another loss) and +3 against [...]

Nov 152012
 

Philadelphia Eagles (3-6) at Washington (3-6) This line has shifted 2 points since last week because of Michael Vick’s injury (-1.5 last week to -3.5 this week), which makes no sense because Michael Vick sucks. Nick Foles went 22 of 32 for 219 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception in relief of Vick last week. [...]

Nov 142012
 

Baltimore Ravens (7-2) at Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3) Ben Roethlisberger is out for this one. How can the Steelers possibly beat the 7-2 Ravens? That’s the question that everyone seems to be asking this week and apparently no one can come up with an answer as the public is pounding Baltimore as road favorites here. However, [...]

Nov 132012
 

Week 10 Results ATS: 7-7 +5 units/+$370 SU: 8-5-1 Upset Picks: 1-1 +20 Over/Under: 1-1 -10 Total: +$380 Public Results ATS*: 7-7 -3 units 2012 results to date ATS: 73-68-5 +19 units/+$255 SU: 93-52-1 Upset Picks: 26-24 +$2160 Over/Under: 6-4-1 +160 Parlays: 1-0 +100 Total: +2675 Survivor: 8-2 (HOU, NE, NO, BAL, SF, ATL, CHI, [...]