Chicago Bears (7-2) at San Francisco 49ers (6-2) I can’t make a final pick on this one because there are too many unknowns with injuries and with the line in general (it’s not yet posted). However, I can do a reasonable preview based on what we do know. Here’s what we know. We know Jay [...]
Jacksonville Jaguars (1-8) at Houston Texans (8-1) This week, when the Jacksonville Jaguars go to Houston to play the Texans it will be the latest a 1-win team has played a 1-loss team since 1990, when the Patriots played the Bills, also during week 11, How long ago was that? Well, here’s a clue. The [...]
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-4) at Carolina Panthers (2-7) The Buccaneers have really turned it around lately and are now road favorites in Carolina, pretty crazy considering they were road dogs in Oakland a couple weeks ago, 6 point dogs in Minnesota the week before that, home dogs for the Saints the week before that, and [...]
Cleveland Browns (2-7) at Dallas Cowboys (4-5) As many of you who read these picks regularly know, I love using yards per play differential and rate of sustaining drives differential to compute real line. Yards per play differential measures how well a team does on an average play (offensive or defensive) and overrates teams that [...]
San Diego Chargers (4-5) at Denver Broncos (6-3) In my Power Rankings this week I joked, “Why does it feel like the Chargers are going to lose to Denver, fall to 4-6, and then go on their annual late season run, finish 8-8 or 9-7, miss the playoffs barely, and save Norv Turner’s and AJ [...]
Arizona Cardinals (4-5) at Atlanta Falcons (8-1) The Falcons are 9.5 point favorites here at home, but they’ve struggled to blow teams out this year, winning 5 of their 8 games by a touchdown or less, including 4 against teams who, like the Cardinals, currently have a sub .500 record. 4 of those 5 close [...]
Green Bay Packers (6-3) at Detroit Lions (4-5) I don’t think it’s possible to talk about the Packers without first talking about how bad their injury situation has gotten. Already missing stud middle linebacker Desmond Bishop and replacement DJ Smith for the season, the Packers have also put starting right tackle Bryan Bulaga and starting [...]
Cincinnati Bengals (4-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-8) Almost every year, we have one team go from in the playoffs to 5 wins or fewer. Right now, every playoff team from last year has at least 4 wins. That means one of two things. We’re not going to have a team like that this year [...]
New Orleans Saints (4-5) at Oakland Raiders (3-6) The Saints are overrated. Yes, they knocked off Atlanta, but Dallas, Carolina, Washington, and Oakland almost did so. Their defense is still a joke. Because of their defense, they rank 28th in yards per play differential and 25th in rate of sustaining drives differential. Their defense ranks dead last [...]
Indianapolis Colts (6-3) at New England Patriots (6-3) The Colts have been underrated all year. From being home dogs against Minnesota and Miami to being just -3 at home for Jacksonville (though they did lose) and -1 at home for Cleveland to being +3.5 against the Jets in New York (another loss) and +3 against [...]
Philadelphia Eagles (3-6) at Washington (3-6) This line has shifted 2 points since last week because of Michael Vick’s injury (-1.5 last week to -3.5 this week), which makes no sense because Michael Vick sucks. Nick Foles went 22 of 32 for 219 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception in relief of Vick last week. [...]
New York Jets (3-6) at St. Louis Rams (3-5) Someone check me for a concussion because I really like the Jets this week. The Jets are one of two teams I have not picked to cover once this year, along with the Bengals. Yes, their fans hate me. It may seem weird that this is [...]
Baltimore Ravens (7-2) at Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3) Ben Roethlisberger is out for this one. How can the Steelers possibly beat the 7-2 Ravens? That’s the question that everyone seems to be asking this week and apparently no one can come up with an answer as the public is pounding Baltimore as road favorites here. However, [...]
Miami Dolphins (4-5) at Buffalo Bills (3-6) Things have really gone south for the Dolphins in the past few weeks. How south? 2 weeks ago they were in a playoff spot in the AFC and road favorites going to Indianapolis. Two weeks later, they are 4-5 and are dogs in Buffalo. Not only that, but [...]
Week 10 Results ATS: 7-7 +5 units/+$370 SU: 8-5-1 Upset Picks: 1-1 +20 Over/Under: 1-1 -10 Total: +$380 Public Results ATS*: 7-7 -3 units 2012 results to date ATS: 73-68-5 +19 units/+$255 SU: 93-52-1 Upset Picks: 26-24 +$2160 Over/Under: 6-4-1 +160 Parlays: 1-0 +100 Total: +2675 Survivor: 8-2 (HOU, NE, NO, BAL, SF, ATL, CHI, [...]