Minnesota Vikings (6-4) at Chicago Bears (7-3) Jay Cutler might be the most undervalued player in the NFL. In the last 2 seasons, when he starts, the Bears are 14-5 and score 26.8 points per game. When he doesn’t, they are 1-6 and average just 13.1 points per game. That isn’t all him. For instance, [...]
Carolina Panthers (2-8) at Philadelphia Eagles (4-6) I was expecting the Eagles to be favored in this one and I was going to make a big play on Carolina for several reasons. The first and most obvious is that the Eagles appear to have quit. Even if they haven’t, they have really struggled to cover [...]
St. Louis Rams (4-6) at Arizona Cardinals (4-6) The rule of thumb in NFC West divisional matchups is to take the home team. Since 2007, no division covers more often at home than the NFC West, going 106-79 ATS at home, and conversely no team fails to cover more often on the road, going 74-102 [...]
Atlanta Falcons (9-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-4) The Falcons may be 9-1 and the Buccaneers may be 6-4, but the Buccaneers are playing better football right now. They’ve had 5 wins by a touchdown or less against sub .500 teams, including 4 at home. Denver is the only team better than .500 they beat [...]
Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4) at Cleveland Browns (2-8) Charlie Batch will start this one for the Steelers. He should have started against the Ravens to begin with. He’s always been a solid backup quarterback who can win games when Ben Roethlisberger is hurt (5-2 SU and 5-2 ATS since joining the Steelers). I think he’s a [...]
San Francisco 49ers (7-2) at New Orleans Saints (5-5) Colin Kaepernick will start this one for the 49ers. Kaepernick was incredibly impressive against a tough Bears defense on Monday Night, going 16 of 23 for 243 yards and 2 scores in a 32-7 win over the Jay Cutler-less Bears. Against St. Louis after Alex Smith [...]
Buffalo Bills (4-6) at Indianapolis Colts (6-4) I’ve called Indianapolis a perpetually underrated team all year. Starting week 2, they were home dogs for Minnesota, 3 point home favorites for Jacksonville, touchdown home dogs for the Packers, 3.5 point road dogs against the Jets, 1 point home favorites for Cleveland, 3.5 point road dogs against [...]
Denver Broncos (7-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-9) There are two trends that apply to this game, but both of them can be neutralized by the fact that this matchup is divisional. Home dogs are 57-40 ATS off a loss as home dogs since 2002, but that only 13-10 ATS as divisional home dogs after [...]
Seattle Seahawks (6-4) at Miami Dolphins (4-6) As I mentioned in the Tennessee/Jacksonville write up, one situation I love betting on is road favorites after a bye. It’s strong for divisional matchups, as teams are 22-3 ATS as divisional road favorites off a bye since 2002, but that trend is still 22-12 ATS for non-divisional [...]
Tennessee Titans (4-6) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-9) One of the most powerful trends applies to road favorites after a bye. Since 2002, teams are 44-15 ATS as road favorites right after a bye, including 22-3 ATS as divisional road favorites off a bye. I only heavily bet on this trend when the road favorite deserves [...]
Green Bay Packers (7-3) at New York Giants (6-4) What’s wrong with the Giants? That’s what everyone is asking. Well, they do this every year. Since Tom Coughlin took over, the Giants are 53-19 in the first 8 games of a season and 27-39 in the last 8 games of the season, including these last [...]
Baltimore Ravens (8-2) at San Diego Chargers (4-6) The Chargers haven’t beaten a team other than the Chiefs since week 2, when they beat the Titans, who aren’t exactly great either and then before that they beat Oakland. Why would anyone pick them to beat the Ravens? Well, that seems to be the public sentiment [...]
Oakland Raiders (3-7) at Cincinnati Bengals (5-5) Every year, one team goes from the playoffs to 5 wins or fewer. The Bengals now stand at 5-5, but I won’t rule out them losing out. The Lions at 4-6 are the favorite this year and I also won’t rule out that we won’t have one this [...]
Houston Texans (9-1) at Detroit Lions (5-5) Every year the Lions have a Thanksgiving home game and every year they struggle. They’ve covered just once in their last 9 Thanksgiving home games. Even last year when they were good and made the playoffs for the first time in a decade, they didn’t play well on [...]
New England Patriots (7-3) at New York Jets (4-6) The Patriots suffered a serious injury last week, losing Rob Gronkowski for at least 4 weeks with a broken arm. Gronkowski is an incredible football player and one of the top offensive players in the NFL and his absence obviously hurts. However, no one does the [...]
Washington Redskins (4-6) at Dallas Cowboys (5-5) People really seem to have soured on the Cowboys after their near loss to the Browns last week. This line was at Dallas -6 last week and now it’s at -3 and the public is still pounding the underdog. The fact that the public is pounding the underdog [...]
Week 11 Results ATS: 5-9 -8 units/$-1010 SU: 7-7 Upset Picks: 1-6 -$835 Over/Under: 1-0 +100 Total: -$1745 Public Results ATS*: 6-8 +5 units 2012 results to date ATS: 78-77-5 +11 units/-$755 SU: 100-59-1 Upset Picks: 27-30 +$1325 Over/Under: 7-4-1 +260 Parlays: 1-0 +100 Total: +$930 Survivor: 9-2 (HOU, NE, NO, BAL, SF, ATL, CHI, [...]