Nov 232012
 

Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4) at Cleveland Browns (2-8) Charlie Batch will start this one for the Steelers. He should have started against the Ravens to begin with. He’s always been a solid backup quarterback who can win games when Ben Roethlisberger is hurt (5-2 SU and 5-2 ATS since joining the Steelers). I think he’s a [...]

Nov 232012
 

San Francisco 49ers (7-2) at New Orleans Saints (5-5) Colin Kaepernick will start this one for the 49ers. Kaepernick was incredibly impressive against a tough Bears defense on Monday Night, going 16 of 23 for 243 yards and 2 scores in a 32-7 win over the Jay Cutler-less Bears. Against St. Louis after Alex Smith [...]

Nov 232012
 

Buffalo Bills (4-6) at Indianapolis Colts (6-4) I’ve called Indianapolis a perpetually underrated team all year. Starting week 2, they were home dogs for Minnesota, 3 point home favorites for Jacksonville, touchdown home dogs for the Packers, 3.5 point road dogs against the Jets, 1 point home favorites for Cleveland, 3.5 point road dogs against [...]

Nov 232012
 

Seattle Seahawks (6-4) at Miami Dolphins (4-6) As I mentioned in the Tennessee/Jacksonville write up, one situation I love betting on is road favorites after a bye. It’s strong for divisional matchups, as teams are 22-3 ATS as divisional road favorites off a bye since 2002, but that trend is still 22-12 ATS for non-divisional [...]

Nov 222012
 

Tennessee Titans (4-6) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-9) One of the most powerful trends applies to road favorites after a bye. Since 2002, teams are 44-15 ATS as road favorites right after a bye, including 22-3 ATS as divisional road favorites off a bye. I only heavily bet on this trend when the road favorite deserves [...]

Nov 222012
 

Baltimore Ravens (8-2) at San Diego Chargers (4-6) The Chargers haven’t beaten a team other than the Chiefs since week 2, when they beat the Titans, who aren’t exactly great either and then before that they beat Oakland. Why would anyone pick them to beat the Ravens? Well, that seems to be the public sentiment [...]

Nov 202012
 

New England Patriots (7-3) at New York Jets (4-6) The Patriots suffered a serious injury last week, losing Rob Gronkowski for at least 4 weeks with a broken arm. Gronkowski is an incredible football player and one of the top offensive players in the NFL and his absence obviously hurts. However, no one does the [...]

Nov 202012
 

Week 11 Results ATS: 5-9 -8 units/$-1010 SU: 7-7 Upset Picks: 1-6 -$835 Over/Under: 1-0 +100 Total: -$1745 Public Results ATS*: 6-8 +5 units 2012 results to date ATS: 78-77-5 +11 units/-$755 SU: 100-59-1 Upset Picks: 27-30 +$1325 Over/Under: 7-4-1 +260 Parlays: 1-0 +100 Total: +$930 Survivor: 9-2 (HOU, NE, NO, BAL, SF, ATL, CHI, [...]