San Francisco 49ers (8-3) at St. Louis Rams (4-7) Colin Kaepernick is now officially quarterback of the 49ers and it’s definitely the right move. I don’t think the 49ers ever really scared anyone with Alex Smith under center. He wasn’t why they were winning. Kaepernick gives this team such a higher upside. He allows them [...]
Houston Texans (10-1) at Tennessee Titans (4-7) Tennessee may be 4-7, which isn’t a terrible record, but they are a terrible team. Of their 7 losses, 5 have come by 21 or more points and only one of their wins came by more than a field goal. Because of this, they are -97 in points [...]
Arizona Cardinals (4-7) at New York Jets (4-7) I’ve started using net points per drive to compute real line. It makes sense. Net points per drive measures how much you outscore opponents by on a given drive and if you take the difference between the two team’s net points per drive and you multiply that [...]
Minnesota Vikings (6-5) at Green Bay Packers (7-4) Aaron Rodgers is normally deadly off a loss, going 14-9 ATS in that situation in his career, including 10-4 ATS since 2009, which excludes 2008, his first year as a starter. However, as favorites of a touchdown or more, he’s just 4-3 ATS in that situation in [...]
Seattle Seahawks (6-5) at Chicago Bears (8-3) The Seahawks were 6-4 coming out of their bye last week and looked like they were in prime position to take one of the NFC’s two Wild Card spots. However, they lost on the road to the Dolphins and now all of a sudden, the sky is falling [...]
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-5) at Denver Broncos (8-3) The Buccaneers lost last week, snapping a 4 game winning streak, but it was once again a close game. The Buccaneers are still 5-2 since the bye and they’ve really looked like a different team since then. Josh Freeman is 134 of 220 for 1971 yards, 16 [...]
Carolina Panthers (3-8) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-10) Obviously, I can’t do this write up without mentioning the tragedy that happened Saturday Morning. Early Saturday morning, Chiefs’ starting middle linebacker Jovan Belcher murdered his girlfriend at their house and then came to the Chiefs’ practice facility and committed suicide in front of several teammates and [...]
Cleveland Browns (3-8) at Oakland Raiders (3-8) The Raiders seem to have completely quit. They’ve lost 4 straight by a combined score of 169-79. Reports out of their practices aren’t pretty either as middle linebacker Rolando McClain, actually one of their better defensive players, has been suspended for 2 games for conduct detrimental to the [...]
New York Giants (7-4) at Washington Redskins (5-6) Since Tom Coughlin took over as Head Coach of the New York Giants before the 2004 season, the Giants have always been a much better 1st half of the season team than 2nd half of the season team. In the first 8 games of the season, they [...]
Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5) at Baltimore Ravens (9-2) 2 weeks ago, the Steelers were riding high at 6-3, including a recent win over the Giants in New York and looked like they had a chance to take control of the division with a win at home against the then 7-2 Baltimore Ravens. However, Ben Roethlisberger got [...]
New England Patriots (8-3) Miami Dolphins (5-6) The Patriots are on quite a roll right now. Once called an “average team” by Tony Dungy when they stood at 3-3, the Patriots have now won 5 games in a row including their last 2 by a combined 65 points and 3 of 4 by 30 or [...]
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-9) at Buffalo Bills (4-7) One of the most powerful trends in betting is known as the six and six trend, meaning teams who finished with 6 wins or fewer are 23-64 ATS as favorites of 6 or more since 2002. There are two issues with this trend. One, it’s very rare (it [...]
Cincinnati Bengals (6-5) at San Diego Chargers (4-7) Last week, I took the Chargers for a big play for several reasons. Philip Rivers was 31-19 ATS in week 11 or later. In the last 3 years, as mediocre as they’ve been, they were still 10-5 ATS in week 11 or later, including a cover the [...]
Philadelphia Eagles (3-8) at Dallas Cowboys (5-6) 2 weeks ago, the Cowboys stood at 4-5, but many people still gave them a chance to win this division. The Giants weren’t looking great and the Cowboys, having played a very tough schedule in their first 9 games, had a very easy schedule down the stretch with [...]
Indianapolis Colts (7-4) at Detroit Lions (4-7) The Lions are in a bad spot and normally this is the type of team I like to stay away from. They are favorites after a loss as dogs and will next be dogs. Last week, they lost to the Texans and next week they have to go [...]
New Orleans Saints (5-6) at Atlanta Falcons (10-1) On principle, this line is too small. This line essentially suggests that the Saints and Falcons are equals (3 points for home field advantage) and while I agree that the Falcons aren’t as good as their record, I don’t think the Saints and Falcons are equals right [...]
Last week was one of the worst weeks I’ve ever had. I actually went 8-8 ATS somehow (I was shocked when I saw that), but I lost 7 of my top 8 plays. Fortunately I’m doing so well with prop bets that I’m going to end up in the black no matter what happens these [...]