Washington Redskins (7-6) at Cleveland Browns (5-8) Robert Griffin is expected to be a true game time decision for this one and we won’t know for sure about his status until tomorrow morning. Lines are slowly starting to trickle in spite of this and if you had to ask me, I’d said it’s more likely [...]
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-7) at New Orleans Saints (5-8) The Buccaneers lost last week as big home favorites against the Eagles, essentially eliminating themselves from playoff contention, but they are still better than their record. They haven’t lost a single game by more than 8 points, but 4 of their 6 wins have come by [...]
Green Bay Packers (9-4) at Chicago Bears (8-5) I’ve called the Packers overrated before. This was because they were really banged up with injuries and as a result, they weren’t really playing as well as people thought they are. Injuries to Cedric Benson and now James Starks left the mediocre Alex Green as the feature [...]
Denver Broncos (10-3) at Baltimore Ravens (9-4) Before losing to the Steelers at home a few weeks ago, the Ravens had ripped off 16 straight home wins, dating back to 2010. Given that, it’s kind of weird to see them as home dogs here. It’s also kind of funny to see how far this team [...]
Indianapolis Colts (9-4) at Houston Texans (11-2) The Texans were calling last week’s game in New England their biggest game in franchise history and rightfully so. This is a very young franchise that has played just 2 playoff games in its history and going to New England as an 11-1 #1 seed in week 14 [...]
Minnesota Vikings (7-6) at St. Louis Rams (6-6-1) The Vikings won last week as home dogs against the Bears, but I’m still not sure about them. Christian Ponder once again had a terrible game, completing 11 of 17 for 91 yards and an interception. In his last 7 games, he’s 107 of 191 (56.0%) for [...]
New York Giants (8-5) at Atlanta Falcons (11-2) Every year in the Tom Coughlin era, the Giants have a 2nd half slide. Since he took over in 2004, they are 53-19 in the first 8 games of the season and 29-40 in the second 8 games of the season. This year has been no different [...]
New York Jets (6-7) at Tennessee Titans (4-9) The Titans are 4-9, which isn’t very good at all, but if you can believe it, they’re even worse than their record. Of their 9 losses, 5 have come by 21 or more and only one of their 4 wins have come by more than a field [...]
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-11) at Miami Dolphins (5-8) I’ve mentioned the six and six trend here several times. Teams are 23-64 ATS since 2002 as favorites of 6 or more if they finish with 6 wins or fewer. The Dolphins might be a candidate for that here as 7.5 point favorites over the Jaguars. They are [...]
Seattle Seahawks (8-5) at Buffalo Bills (5-8) The Seahawks have the biggest home/road disparity over the last few years. They are 23-43 ATS on the road and 46-20 ATS at home since 2005. This year, they are a perfect 6-0 ATS at home, including 3-0 SU as home dogs, but on the road they are [...]
Detroit Lions (4-9) at Arizona Cardinals (4-9) One of the most powerful trends is known as the six and six trend. This says that teams that finish 6-10 or worse struggle to cover as favorites of 6 or more, going 23-64 ATS since 2002. The Lions are currently 4-9 and need to win out to [...]
Carolina Panthers (4-9) at San Diego Chargers (5-8) I picked the Chargers to win at home against the Ravens and Bengals respectively in week 12 and 13 because, among other reasons, they always start playing really well at this point in the season, even when their season has been lost. Well, they couldn’t quite close [...]
Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6) at Dallas Cowboys (7-6) After the Steelers’ loss last week, I was expecting them to be dogs here, especially after the Cowboys big win as dogs last week. There was no early line last week because Ben Roethlisberger’s status was still in doubt so I didn’t know really what to expect in [...]
Kansas City Chiefs (2-11) at Oakland Raiders (3-10) I picked the Chiefs as 6.5 point dogs last week in Cleveland because they were in such a good spot, but I made sure not to make it a huge play because I wasn’t sure how they’d respond once they had a week for the Jovan Belcher [...]
San Francisco 49ers (9-3-1) at New England Patriots (10-3) Normally, I like betting against big line movements because they tend to be overreactions based off 1 week. Last week, this line was -3 and now it’s -5, which is a pretty significant line movement. However, that’s reasonable in this case. Teams normally carry the momentum [...]
Cincinnati Bengals (7-6) at Philadelphia Eagles (4-9) After the Eagles’ 31-6 loss in Washington week 11, I assumed the Eagles had quit. They were losers of 6 straight, including 4 or more by 13 or more. It was Andy Reid’s first 6 game losing streak of his career and a team that had always gotten [...]