Tennessee Titans (5-9) at Green Bay Packers (10-4) I’ve called Green Bay overrated because of all their injuries and I still think there’s a lot of truth to that. Injuries at running back have left them with a washed up Ryan Grant, an unproven DuJuan Harris, and fullback John Kuhn to carry the rock. The [...]
Minnesota Vikings (8-6) at Houston Texans (12-2) The Vikings kept their playoff hopes alive last week, as they are one of many 8-6 teams in the NFC. They are long shot hopes, however. Not only do they not control their own destiny, their final 2 games are against Houston and Green Bay, two of the [...]
Washington Redskins (8-6) at Philadelphia Eagles (4-10) Some situational trends say that the Redskins are the right side here. Teams are 35-19 ATS as divisional road favorites before being divisional home favorites since 2002. Meanwhile, on the Eagles side, divisional home dogs are 23-38 ATS before being divisional road dogs since 2002. That being said, [...]
San Diego Chargers (5-9) at New York Jets (6-8) Ugh. How am I supposed to pick between these two teams? The Chargers have been incredibly inconsistent and the Jets are a mediocre at best team who has just been eliminated from the playoff race making a controversial move to start a former 7th round pick [...]
Cleveland Browns (5-9) at Denver Broncos (11-3) Before last week, the Browns hadn’t really gotten blown out all year. They had been competitive in every other game. They only have 3 other losses by more than a touchdown. One of those, a 14 point loss in New York against the Giants, was a lot closer [...]
Chicago Bears (8-6) at Arizona Cardinals (5-9) The Bears started the season 7-1 and looked primed for a first round bye, but now stand at 8-6 and need help to even get into the playoffs. How did this happen? Well, the simple answer is that they started playing tougher competition. In their first 8 games, [...]
Atlanta Falcons (12-2) Detroit Lions (4-10) Normally I like going against huge line movements because I hate week to week overreactions. This line was Atlanta -1 last week and now it’s at -4.5, skipping over two key numbers of 3 and 4. At first glance, this appears warranted. The Lions got blown out by the [...]
New York Giants (8-6) at Baltimore Ravens (9-5) The Giants stunk it up last week in Atlanta, getting shut out, losing 34-0. I generally like taking teams off a blowout loss. Teams in this situation tend to be overlooked, undervalued, and embarrassed. The most recent case of this was the Cardinals’ blowing out the Lions [...]
San Francisco 49ers (10-3-1) at Seattle Seahawks (9-5) Everyone knows about the Seahawks’ home prowess, but it’s really, really significant, possibly even more than people realize. At home, they are 46-20 ATS since 2005, including 16-8 ATS as home dogs. They’ve already knocked off the Cowboys, Packers, and Patriots as home dogs this season, en [...]
New England Patriots (10-4) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-12) Tom Brady and the Patriots lost last week, but there was still a lot to like from that game. They scored 34 points on the league’s best defense, despite a season high 4 turnovers and despite missing Rob Gronkowski. Their defense surrendered 41 points, but that could [...]
Oakland Raiders (4-10) at Carolina Panthers (5-9) One of my favorite trends is the six and six trend, which says that teams who finish with 6 wins or fewer are 23-64 ATS since 2002 as favorites of 6 or more. So far this year, teams that are currently 5-9 or worse are 2-5 ATS as [...]
St. Louis Rams (6-7-1) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-8) The Buccaneers got destroyed in New Orleans last week, losing 41-0. I generally like taking teams off a blowout loss. Teams in this situation tend to be overlooked, undervalued, and embarrassed. The most recent case of this was the Cardinals’ blowing out the Lions as huge home [...]
Cincinnati Bengals (8-6) at Pittsburgh Steelers (7-7) Apparently the roof is falling in Pittsburgh. They’ve gone from favored by 4.5 to favored by 3 (passing two key numbers) and the public is still on Cincinnati. Why? Because they lost in overtime in Dallas in a game that was meaningless for them because they still control [...]
Indianapolis Colts (9-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (2-12) The Colts lost to the Texans last week and still only have one impressive win on their schedule and by impressive win I mean a win over a playoff team or a blowout of a bad team. They beat the Packers in that first ChuckStrong game and [...]
New Orleans Saints (6-8) at Dallas Cowboys (8-6) The Cowboys entered December at 6-6 after a rough month of November, traditionally a strong month for them, and it looked unlikely that they would be unable to choke again this December, mostly because there would be nothing to choke away. However, after two straight wins, they [...]
Buffalo Bills (5-9) at Miami Dolphins (6-8) The Bills got blown out last week, losing 50-17 “at home” in Toronto to the Seahawks. As a result, they rank 28th in points per drive at -0.58. The Dolphins, on the other hand, rank 17th at -0.04. If you take the difference, multiply by 11 (average amount [...]