Last week: 2 (+1) Record: 10-3-1 Net points per drive: 0.90 (2nd) DVOA: 34.8% (4th) Weighted DVOA: 35.1% (4th) The 49ers won last week and earned this spot, at least until they lose in Seattle this week. Then would Seattle be #1 even though you can’t trust them to win a single road playoff game, [...]
Last week: 1 (-1) Record: 10-4 Net points per drive: 1.01 (1st) DVOA: 39.8% (1st) Weighted DVOA: 45.6% (1st) That game against the 49ers felt like it was 6 hours long. It was like 2 games, one the 49ers dominated and one the Patriots dominated. All I can say is I can’t wait for the [...]
Last week: 4 (+1) Record: 12-2 Net points per drive: 0.71 (4th) DVOA: 11.7% (9th) Weighted DVOA: 7.3% (12th) Atlanta finally got that one signature win last week, blowing out the Giants, even though the Giants might not even make the playoffs now. You can question their talent all you want and I think they [...]
Last week: 4 (+0) Record: 12-2 Net points per drive: 0.56 (6th) DVOA: 13.3% (8th) Weighted DVOA: 8.4% (10th) Here’s why the AFC’s top-3 is so interesting. The Patriots have beaten the other two, but have the worst record of the trio and thus they won’t have home field. The Broncos have lost to the [...]
Last week: 5 (+0) Record: 11-3 Net points per drive: 0.67 (5th) DVOA: 37.2% (3rd) Weighted DVOA: 39.5% (3rd) The NFC is the much deeper conference, but I think the AFC has more top level talent as they have 3 of the top-5 top tier teams. The Broncos are in 5th, 3rd out of the [...]
Last week: 6 (+0) Record: 9-5 Net points per drive: 0.77 (3rd) DVOA: 38.5% (2nd) Weighted DVOA: 44.8% (2nd) Seattle is in an interesting spot as well. Like Green Bay, I’m torn on them, whereas the 5 teams ahead of them on this list I’m less torn on. Seattle might be playing better than anyone [...]
Last week: 9 (+2) Record: 10-4 Net points per drive: 0.23 (10th) DVOA: 23.1% (5th) Weighted DVOA: 17.3% (5th) Green Bay is another team that I’m not sold on, but sometimes I wonder if they’re not the sleeper favorites to win the whole thing, once they get healthy, given their recent history. However, just this [...]
Last week: 7 (-1) Record: 9-5 Net points per drive: 0.21 (11th) DVOA: 9.2% (10th) Weighted DVOA: 3.3% (13th) The Ravens could easily lose their final 2 games and go into the playoffs on a 5 game losing streak and 9-7 as either a wild card or a weak division champion, depending on what happens [...]
Last week: 8 (-1) Record: 8-6 Net points per drive: 0.08 (14th) DVOA: 7.1% (11th) Weighted DVOA: 10.2% (9th) In a complicated NFC, the Redskins outcome seems easiest to predict. All they have to do is beat Philadelphia and Dallas and they win the NFC East and the 4th seed, which I think they will. [...]
Last week: 10 (+0) Record: 8-6 Net points per drive: 0.31 (9th) DVOA: 18.9% (6th) Weighted DVOA: 17.0% (6th) I detailed the Giants/Bears battle for the 6th seed in the Giants’ write up. The Bears should take care of their business and beat the Cardinals and Detroit. They’ve beaten everyone they’re supposed to, going 7-0 [...]
Last week: 12 (+1) Record: 9-5 Net points per drive: -0.32 (24th) DVOA: -21.0% (28th) Weighted DVOA: -18.8% (26th) The Colts lost to the Texans last week and still only have one impressive win on their schedule and by impressive win I mean a win over a playoff team or a blowout of a bad [...]
Last week: 11 (-1) Record: 7-7 Net points per drive: 0.10 (13th) DVOA: -3.0% (17th) Weighted DVOA: 0.0% (15th) The Steelers lost last week in Dallas, but that game didn’t mean anything to them. For Dallas it meant their season, but the Steelers still control their own destiny if they can win out at home [...]
Last week: 13 (+0) Record: 8-6 Net points per drive: 0.42 (8th) DVOA: 13.3% (7th) Weighted DVOA: 10.5% (8th) I went back and forth on Chicago/NY Giants for the final playoff spot. The Giants control their own destiny, but the Bears have very winnable games against Arizona and the team who lost to Arizona (Detroit) [...]
Last week: 20 (+6) Record: 8-6 Net points per drive: -0.07 (19th) DVOA: -5.3% (20th) Weighted DVOA: -10.0% (23rd) The Vikings are 8-6, but with games against the Texans and Packers left on their schedule, it’s going to be very, very hard for them to make the playoffs. 9-7 looks like a best case scenario [...]
Last week: 14 (-1) Record: 8-6 Net points per drive: 0.49 (7th) DVOA: 4.4% (12th) Weighted DVOA: 14.6% (7th) The Bengals are 8-6 and control their own destiny for a playoff spot, but their struggles against playoff caliber opponents should be their undoing. Andy Dalton was 0-8 against playoff teams last year and he’s just [...]
Last week: 19 (+3) Record: 8-6 Net points per drive: -0.06 (18th) DVOA: -1.9% (16th) Weighted DVOA: -4.0% (17th) Heading into December at 6-6, after a rough November, traditionally a strong month, it didn’t look like the Cowboys would choke it away in December again, because they didn’t really have anything to choke away. Now [...]
Last week: 16 (-1) Record: 6-8 Net points per drive: 0.14 (12th) DVOA: -1.3% (15th) Weighted DVOA: 1.5% (14th) The Saints still remain mathematically alive for a playoff spot at 6-8 off a huge blowout home win and now they head to Dallas, where the Cowboys really struggle as home favorites and really struggle in [...]
Last week: 18 (+0) Record: 6-7-1 Net points per drive: -0.43 (26th) DVOA: -5.1% (19th) Weighted DVOA: -5.2% (18th) It’s week 16 and the Rams are still mathematically alive for a playoff spot, even in the tougher NFC. It’s not an accomplishment for most teams, but given this team’s recent history, it is for them. [...]
Last week: 22 (+3) Record: 6-8 Net points per drive: -0.38 (25th) DVOA: -12.1% (24th) Weighted DVOA: -15.4% (25th) With the exception of last week’s Monday Night debacle and a game against the Dolphins (who they split the season series with), the Jets have beaten every mediocre or worse football team they’ve played this season. [...]
Last week: 15 (-5) Record: 6-8 Net points per drive: -0.02 (16th) DVOA: -6.1% (21st) Weighted DVOA: -7.0% (21st) The Buccaneers hadn’t lost a single game by more than 8 points all season this year, before getting blown out 41-0 against a sub .500 Saints team last week. They quit down the stretch last season [...]
Last week: 25 (+4) Record: 5-9 Net points per drive: -0.20 (21st) DVOA: 3.4% (14th) Weighted DVOA: 8.1% (11th) The Panthers have actually been playing some good football lately and have been an underrated team all year, losing just twice by more than 6 points (once on Thursday Night, in a game they were completely [...]
Last week: 21 (-1) Record: 6-8 Net points per drive: -0.04 (17th) DVOA: -4.7% (18th) Weighted DVOA: -6.4% (20th) The Dolphins are also done winning I think. They almost definitely won’t win in New England week 17, but they might be so distracted by that game that they get upset this week at home by [...]
Last week: 23 (+0) Record: 5-9 Net points per drive: -0.58 (28th) DVOA: -10.0% (22nd) Weighted DVOA: -7.8% (22nd) The Bills have two divisional games left with equal caliber teams. They beat the Dolphins in Buffalo and now travel to Miami. They lost to the Jets in New York and now host them. Common logic [...]
Last week: 17 (+7) Record: 5-9 Net points per drive: -0.23 (22nd) DVOA: -11.8% (23rd) Weighted DVOA: -10.3% (24th) The Chargers are 5-9 with 2 winnable games left on the schedule. The problem is, they don’t win winnable games. They’ve lost their last 4 games and 7 of their last 8 when favored or as [...]
Last week: 24 (-1) Record: 5-9 Net points per drive: -0.65 (29th) DVOA: -25.9% (29th) Weighted DVOA: -23.0% (28th) The Titans somehow pulled out a win at home on Monday Night Football, despite having more penalties (14) than first downs (12) and almost more punts (10). This is because the Jets turned the ball over [...]