Dec 302012
 

Carolina Panthers (6-9) at New Orleans Saints (7-8) Aside from this being a divisional matchup, this is a completely meaningless game for these two teams. Both are out of the playoffs. I have a rule against making significant plays on completely meaningless games. If the teams might not care about a game, I shouldn’t either. [...]

Dec 302012
 

Oakland Raiders (4-11) at San Diego Chargers (6-9) Aside from this being a divisional matchup, this is a completely meaningless game for these two teams. Both are out of the playoffs by a long shot. I have a rule against making significant plays on completely meaningless games. If the teams might not care about a [...]

Dec 302012
 

Cleveland Browns (5-10) at Pittsburgh Steelers (7-8) Aside from this being a divisional matchup, this is a completely meaningless game for these two teams. Both are out of the playoffs. I have a rule against making significant plays on completely meaningless games. If the teams might not care about a game, I shouldn’t either. There’s just [...]

Dec 302012
 

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-13) at Tennessee Titans (5-10) Aside from this being a divisional matchup, this is a completely meaningless game for these two teams. Both are out of the playoffs by a long shot. I have a rule against making significant plays on completely meaningless games. If the teams might not care about a game, [...]

Dec 302012
 

Kansas City Chiefs (2-13) at Denver Broncos (12-3) This is the biggest line of the season, tied with San Francisco/Arizona at -16.5, but unlike that game, this game actually merits a 16.5 point line. This line really can’t be high enough. Kansas City ranks dead last in net points per drive, DVOA, and weighted DVOA, [...]

Dec 302012
 

Baltimore Ravens (10-5) at Cincinnati Bengals (9-6) In spite of that big win in Pittsburgh last week, Andy Dalton and these Bengals still have a lack of success against playoff teams over the past two years. After going 0-8 against playoff teams last year, they’ve had very limited action against playoff teams this year. They [...]

Dec 302012
 

Green Bay Packers (11-4) at Minnesota Vikings (9-6) There are many reasons to like the Vikings here. They’ve played great football at home, going 6-1 with wins over San Francisco and Chicago, as opposed to 3-4 on the road. They played the Packers tight a few weeks back and that was in Green Bay. They’re [...]

Dec 292012
 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-9) at Atlanta Falcons (13-2) I can’t handicap week 17 games like I do other games (maybe that’s a good thing because I’ve had a rough few weeks), because one of the things I do is look for upcoming distractions and dynamic changes on their schedule. In week 17, I can’t do [...]

Dec 292012
 

St. Louis Rams (7-7-1) at Seattle Seahawks (10-5) Everyone knows about the Seahawks’ home prowess, but it’s really, really significant, possibly even more than people realize. At home, they are 47-20 ATS since 2005, including 6-0 ATS as double digit favorites and 16-3 ATS as touchdown plus home favorites. For contrast, they are 24-43 ATS [...]

Dec 282012
 

Arizona Cardinals (5-10) at San Francisco 49ers (10-4-1) It’s usually a smart thing to take well coached teams off a loss. They’re generally extra focused in a bounce back game the following week. Bill Belichick is 35-20 ATS off a loss since 2000. Mike McCarthy is 22-13 ATS in that spot since 2006. Mike Tomlin [...]

Dec 282012
 

Philadelphia Eagles (4-11) at New York Giants (8-7) The Giants are in a must win game here, but that doesn’t mean that this means more to them. The Eagles would love nothing more here than to play spoiler and eliminate a division rival. That being said, I actually really like the Eagles here. There’s absolutely [...]