Kansas City Chiefs (0-1) at Buffalo Bills (0-1) I had the Bills as one of my underrated teams going into the season, thinking that they’d be that team this year that makes the playoffs on the combination of a strong running game, strong defense, decent quarterback play, and an easy schedule. Well, it turns out [...]
Washington Redskins (1-0) at St. Louis Rams (0-1) I had the Rams as one of my underrated teams coming into the season. They improved 6 games in 2010, but, as could have been predictable, regressed 5 games last year. Teams that have a large improvement in win total typically regress the following season and vice [...]
New Orleans Saints (0-1) at Carolina Panthers (0-1) I thought the Saints would be alright even after the offseason they just had. Their defensive losses weren’t huge (Will Smith was even reinstated for the opener and Jonathan Vilma is incredibly overrated) and the loss of the coaches would mostly effect the offense, where Drew Brees [...]
Houston Texans (1-0) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1) Blaine Gabbert looked serviceable in the opener against the Vikings, completing 23 of 39 for 260 yards, 2 touchdown, and no interceptions. Minnesota’s secondary is crap, but I was very impressed with Gabbert’s poise under pressure. I didn’t like the matchup for Gabbert because of his struggles under [...]
Denver Broncos (1-0) at Atlanta Falcons (1-0) If it wasn’t for Green Bay/Chicago, this would be the game of the week. Actually, scratch that, Green Bay/Chicago was an incredibly ugly game that should have been the game of the week, but wasn’t because teams only had 3 days to prepare and played much worse than [...]
Detroit Lions (1-0) at San Francisco 49ers (1-0) Both of these teams were in my overrated group heading into the season. The idea with the overrated/underrated teams was to bet the underrated teams and against the overrated teams until the odds makers caught up or I was proven wrong. Detroit didn’t prove me wrong as [...]
Arizona Cardinals (1-0) at New England Patriots (0-1) Kevin Kolb looked good in relief of an injured John Skelton last week, leading the game winning drive to beat the Seahawks, but the Seahawks are a mediocre to average team that always seems to flop on the road. The Patriots in Foxboro are going to obviously [...]
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-0) at New York Giants (0-1) I had the Buccaneers as one of my underrated teams coming into the season. In 2010, everything went right for this team. They had an easy schedule and went 9-1 against sub .500 teams (1-5 against everyone else). They turned the ball over just 19 times [...]
Dallas Cowboys (1-0) at Seattle Seahawks (0-1) No team has a bigger home/road disparity over the past few years than the Seattle Seahawks. Since 2007, they’re 11-32 SU and 14-28 ATS on the road, but 24-18 SU and 27-14 ATS at home. That’s why it was predictable that they would lose to an inferior Cardinals [...]
Oakland Raiders (0-1) at Miami Dolphins (0-1) Before the season, I had the Raiders as one of my overrated teams. The Raiders’ Pythagorean Expectation last year suggested they should have won 6 games, not 8, as they went 7-2 in games decided by a touchdown or less, the most wins of that kind of any [...]
New York Jets (1-0) at Pittsburgh Steelers (0-1) If I had remembered how bad the Steelers were on the road last year, I probably would not have picked them in Denver. Seriously, look at this, lose by 28 in Baltimore, win by 3 in Indianapolis, lose by 7 in Houston, win by 12 in Arizona, [...]
Tennessee Titans (0-1) at San Diego Chargers (1-0) Never bet on the Chargers early in the season. Prior to last year, when the Chargers went 4-1 early against a cupcake schedule, the Chargers were 14-12 from weeks 1-6 under Philip Rivers and 41-11 (41-11!!!) from weeks 6-17. Including last year, they’re actually 3-7 ATS as [...]
Baltimore Ravens (1-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (1-0) Before the season started, I identified 5 teams I thought were overrated and 5 I thought were underrated. The idea was to bet these teams (or against these teams) until I was proven wrong or until the odds makers caught up. It served me well last week. Of [...]
Minnesota Vikings (1-0) at Indianapolis Colts (0-1) Before the season started, I identified 5 teams I thought were overrated and 5 I thought were underrated. The idea was to bet these teams (or against these teams) until I was proven wrong or until the odds makers caught up. It served me well last week. Of [...]
Cleveland Browns (0-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (0-1) Before the season started, I identified 5 teams I thought were overrated and 5 I thought were underrated. The idea was to bet these teams (or against these teams) until I was proven wrong or until the odds makers caught up. It served me well last week. Of [...]
Chicago Bears (1-0) at Green Bay Packers (0-1) This is the game of the week right here. I’ve been high on the Bears all offseason, naming them as one of my underrated teams. In fact, I thought they were the 2nd best team in the NFC, but couldn’t have them winning the division because the [...]
Week 1 Results ATS: 8-8 -4 units/-$655 SU: 9-7 Upset Picks: 3-4 -$250 Survivor: 1-0 (HOU) Public Results*: 7-9 -6 units 2012 results to date N/A yet *I’m doing this to see how the general public does. Based on percent of bets on each team, if the more popularly bet team covers, it’s a public [...]