Sep 202012
 

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-2) at Indianapolis Colts (1-1) Before the season, I identified 5 overrated and 5 underrated teams, with the idea of betting on them (or against them) until they proved me wrong or the odds makers caught up. This served me well as I’m 10-4 this year on games involving those 10 teams (and one [...]

Sep 202012
 

Oakland Raiders (0-2) at Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1) Before the season, I made a list of underrated and overrated teams, with the intent of betting them (or against them) until the odds makers caught up and I was proven wrong. This approach has worked well for me because I’m 10-4-2 ATS on games involving those teams. [...]

Sep 202012
 

Green Bay Packers (1-1) at Seattle Seahawks (1-1) I love exploiting home/road differentials and, for that reason, Seahawks games are always my favorite to bet. Last week, this is what I said about the subject, “No team has a bigger home/road disparity over the past few years than the Seattle Seahawks. Since 2007, they’re 11-32 [...]

Sep 202012
 

Cincinnati Bengals (1-1) at Washington Redskins (1-1) Before the season, I identified 5 overrated and 5 underrated teams, with the idea of betting on them (or against them) until they proved me wrong or the odds makers caught up. This served me well as I’m 10-4 this year on games involving those 10 teams  (and [...]

Sep 202012
 

Kansas City Chiefs (0-2) at New Orleans Saints (0-2) I don’t think anyone really knew how the Saints would respond to BountyGate and the corresponding BountyGate penalties. Would they fall flat? Would they go into eff you mode? Would it not really matter? I leaned more on the positive side because Sean Payton was an [...]

Sep 192012
 

Philadelphia Eagles (2-0) at Arizona Cardinals (2-0) Believe it or not, this is a matchup of 2-0 teams. Philadelphia being 2-0 isn’t that farfetched, but anyone who told you that they had Arizona starting 2-0, with a week 2 clash in New England on the schedule, is either lying or the biggest Arizona homer in [...]

Sep 192012
 

San Francisco 49ers (2-0) at Minnesota Vikings (1-1) The 49ers have been the best team in the league over the first two games. As a result, they’ve been atop almost every Power Ranking I’ve seen. It’s a very interesting dynamic. This is the prototypical “nobody believes in us” team. Before last year, they were seen [...]

Sep 192012
 

New York Giants (1-1) at Carolina Panthers (1-1) If you haven’t read Jason Whitlock’s article about how hypocritical Roger Goodell is pretending he cares about player safety, while simultaneously expanding Thursday Night Football to a season long thing and trying to expand the season to 18 games, here it is. It’s a very good read [...]

Sep 182012
 

Team OYPP YPP Differential Philadelphia 4.3 5.8 1.5 Carolina 5.4 6.9 1.5 Denver 4.1 5.5 1.4 Dallas 5 6.4 1.4 Minnesota 4.6 5.8 1.2 New England 4.3 5.4 1.1 Houston 4.1 5 0.9 San Francisco 5.1 5.9 0.8 Buffalo 6 6.8 0.8 Green Bay 4.6 5.1 0.5 Detroit 5.2 5.7 0.5 Baltimore 5.6 6.1 0.5 [...]