Minnesota Vikings (4-1) at Washington Redskins (2-3) There’s still no line posted for this for some reason, even though Robert Griffin is widely expected to play, but I’m going to do this write up anyway. Last week, the line was Washington -2 for this game, so I’d be surprised if we got anything lower than [...]
Green Bay Packers (2-3) at Houston Texans (5-0) I feel pretty much exactly the same way about this one as I did about San Francisco/NY Giants. With the favorite, we are getting line value and the opportunity to fade a public underdog. However, with the dog, we’re getting a team that normally does well in [...]
Detroit Lions (1-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-2) The Detroit Lions sit at 1-3 and have yet to cover a spread. As someone who called them overrated to start the season and subsequently went against them in each of their first 4 games, I’m pretty happy about that. However, right now I think they might be [...]
Oakland Raiders (1-3) at Atlanta Falcons (5-0) Matt Ryan is 27-5 in his career at home, including 22-10 ATS and the Falcons are 5-0. The Raiders, meanwhile, are 1-3, coming off a blowout loss to the Broncos (before the bye) and have to travel to Atlanta and play a 1 PM ET game as a [...]
New York Giants (3-2) at San Francisco 49ers (4-1) The San Francisco 49ers are the best team in the league. At least that’s what yards per play differential says and it’s not even really close. They are gaining 1.9 yards per play more than they are allowing and they rank in the top-5 in both [...]
Denver Broncos (2-3) at San Diego Chargers (3-2) From 2003-2010, Peyton Manning was 14-2 ATS as an underdog. This year he is 0-3. Does that mean he’s done or not the same player? Not necessarily. His QB rating is actually 6 points higher than his career average and his completion percentage (66.0%), his YPA (7.7), [...]
Kansas City Chiefs (1-4) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-3) The Chiefs are more than a field goal underdog here against a Tampa Bay team that isn’t very good and yet the public still likes Tampa Bay this week. This is because the public sees Kansas City as a joke. As much as I love to [...]
Buffalo Bills (2-3) at Arizona Cardinals (4-1) Last week, I called the Arizona Cardinals one of the worst 4-0 teams ever. With Kevin Kolb as their quarterback, no offensive line, and no running game, last week’s offensive catastrophe was inevitable and I don’t think it’s the last one. There’s a reason I frequently ranked them [...]
Dallas Cowboys (2-2) at Baltimore Ravens (4-1) Since their impressive win over the Patriots week 3, the Ravens have fallen flat in back-to-back games against inferior opponents, winning by just 6 at home against Cleveland and winning by just 3 in Kansas City last week. Does this mean they’re not as good as they once [...]
St. Louis Rams (3-2) at Miami Dolphins (2-3) The Rams appear to be the public’s new hot young team. After an impressive defensive effort and a 14 point home win over the previously undefeated Cardinals, the Rams now stand at 3-2 and are over .500 for the first time since 2006. They are the publicly [...]
New England Patriots (3-2) at Seattle Seahawks (3-2) As you may know, the Seahawks have a huge home/road disparity. Since 2007, they are 29-14 ATS at home and 15-29 ATS on the road. Because of this, I love betting on their games and frequently make significant plays on them at home and against them on [...]
Indianapolis Colts (2-2) at New York Jets (2-3) Last week, I was very hesitant to make a big play on the Texans, even though I felt they were the significant superior team, because the Jets had so many things working in their favor. They were coming off an embarrassing home shutout and had to spend [...]
Cincinnati Bengals (3-2) at Cleveland Browns (0-5) Last week I noted that, assuming Cleveland, Jacksonville, and Washington don’t make the playoffs and Baltimore does, the Bengals were 12-0 against non-playoff teams since Andy Dalton took over week 1 last year, and 0-10 against playoff teams. For that reason, I didn’t make a big play on [...]
Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2) at Tennessee Titans (1-4) Week 3, the Steelers traveled to play a significantly inferior team, missing two of their top defenders, and yet were still heavily bet by the public as road favorites. They lost outright and a lot of people lost a lot of money. 3 weeks later, the Steelers have [...]
Week 5 Results ATS: 8-6 +0 units/-$150 SU: 10-4 Upset Picks: 1-1 +$425 Over/Under: 1-0-1 +$100 Total: +$375 Public Results ATS*: 7-7 -3 units 2012 results to date ATS: 40-34-3 +18 units/+$905 SU: 46-31 Upset Picks: 13-15 +$425 Over/Under: 3-0-1 +300 Total: +1630 Survivor: 3-2 (HOU, NE, NO, BAL, SF) Public Results ATS*: 34-42-1 -25 [...]