Detroit Lions (2-3) at Chicago Bears (4-1) This week, I put the Bears 1st in my Power Rankings. With the exception of the Thursday Night loss to Green Bay, the Bears have looked great this season, winning every game by 16 or more and only surrendering 7 sacks in 4 games. While you can’t completely [...]
Pittsburgh Steelers (2-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-3) What is wrong with the Steelers? After their recent loss in Tennessee, that’s all anyone can ask. Well, the problem is twofold. The first reason is that they just suck on the road as favorites outside of the division. They won 12 games last year and still barely [...]
Dallas Cowboys (2-3) at Carolina Panthers (1-4) Why does it seem like no matter who is coaching the Cowboys, they seem to continue to make the same dumb mistakes? Last week, they dominated throughout essentially, but were frequently penalized, something that’s been an issue for them all year and dating back to last year. They [...]
Arizona Cardinals (4-2) at Minnesota Vikings (4-2) Wow. Who would have thought when these two teams met week 7, it would be a game of 4-2 teams with potential future playoff ramifications. In a year that has once again been full of surprises, these two are probably the league’s two most surprisingly good teams. However, [...]
Jacksonville Jaguars (1-4) at Oakland Raiders (1-4) In the write up for Colts/Browns, I mentioned Bill Simmons’ theory from his picks column this week that because dogs are doing so well this year (57-32 ATS), the odds makers would start shrinking the spreads to compensate so the general public won’t catch on and just starting [...]
Cleveland Browns (1-5) at Indianapolis Colts (2-3) Indianapolis is in a tough spot this week as favorites before being dogs and after losing as dogs. Teams are 54-78 ATS in that spot since 2008. Last week, they lost 35-9 to the Jets as 3.5 point dogs and next week they travel to Tennessee, where they [...]
Green Bay Packers (3-3) at St. Louis Rams (3-3) It’s funny how much the general public likes to overreact to one game. Last week, everyone was talking about “what’s wrong with the Packers?” and now some people are calling them the best team in the NFL once again. On top of that, they are being [...]
Baltimore Ravens (5-1) at Houston Texans (5-1) This is a very interesting game for a number of reasons. The most obvious is Baltimore’s injuries. This line was at -4 a week ago, but because of Baltimore’s injuries, it’s shifted 3 points, even though Baltimore won and Houston got blown out at home. In spite of [...]
Tennessee Titans (2-4) at Buffalo Bills (3-3) These two teams are actually very, very similar. Tennessee ranks 29th in yards per play differential and Buffalo ranks 30th. Buffalo also ranks 30th in rate of sustaining drives differential, while Tennessee ranks 31st. I picked both teams for big plays last week because, in addition to other [...]
New York Jets (3-3) at New England Patriots (3-3) You gotta love the public overreaction with the Patriots. Last week, they were one of the best teams in the league. Now you get guys like Tony Dungy saying they’re “not very good” and an “average team” just because they lost by 1 point to a [...]
New Orleans Saints (1-4) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-3) The Saints got their first win 2 weeks ago at home on Sunday Night Football over the Chargers, but their problems are far from solved. They still have a horrific defense, which is a contributing factor to them ranking 26th in the league in yards per [...]
Washington Redskins (3-3) at New York Giants (4-2) When I first saw this line, I instantly thought, trap line. The Giants were coming off a huge win in San Francisco and yet this line was suspiciously only at -7. My belief was furthered when the line started to actually fall even more and now it’s [...]
Seattle Seahawks (4-2) at San Francisco 49ers (4-2) On Thursday Night, the rule of thumb is to always take a home favorite. It makes sense. Favorites tend to be proven, veteran teams, or at least in comparison to the road team. Meanwhile, the road team has to travel on a short week, which is an [...]
Week 5 Results ATS: 5-9 -5 units/-$690 SU: 8-6 Upset Picks: 5-2 +$860 Over/Under: 0-1 -$110 Total: +$60 Public Results ATS*: 6-8 -10 units 2012 results to date ATS: 40-34-3 +13 units/+$215 SU: 54-37 Upset Picks: 18-17 +$1285 Over/Under: 3-1-1 +190 Total: +1690 Survivor: 4-2 (HOU, NE, NO, BAL, SF, ATL) Public Results ATS*: 40-50-1 [...]