Miami Dolphins (3-3) at New York Jets (3-4) The Jets beat the Dolphins in Miami earlier this year, therefore they should beat them in New York right? Well, that seems to be what the public thinks as the Jets are a heavily public lean, but I disagree for several reasons. The first one is that [...]
Carolina Panthers (1-5) at Chicago Bears (5-1) I normally hate laying more than a touchdown, but I like the Bears this week for several reasons. The first reason is simply that I think they’re the best team in the league in this wide open NFL (the undefeated Falcons have played a cupcake schedule and won [...]
San Diego Chargers (3-3) at Cleveland Browns (1-6) I normally hate taking teams that are heavily publicly backed, but that’s exactly what I’m doing by taking the Chargers this week. I’m also taking a West Coast team on the road in the Eastern Time Zone at 1 PM, a situation that is normally bad for [...]
Jacksonville Jaguars (1-5) at Green Bay Packers (4-3) So apparently Chad Henne is worse than Blaine Gabbert? I didn’t even know that was possible. Before he got hurt, Gabbert looked serviceable against Oakland’s terrible secondary last week, completing 8 of 12 for 110 yards and a touchdown. However, then Henne came in and went 9 [...]
New England Patriots (4-3) “at” St. Louis Rams (3-4) What’s wrong with the Patriots? That’s what people have been asking for 2 weeks. Last week, the answer to that question was nothing. Losing in Seattle to a tough Seahawks team is not an embarrassing loss or a huge upset as some were calling it. Green [...]
New York Giants (5-2) at Dallas Cowboys (3-3) This line opened as Cowboys -1 and I was ready to make a big play on the Giants for several reasons. For starters, in the Tom Coughlin era, they are 39-21 ATS as a dog. Also in the Tom Coughlin era, they are 49-25 ATS on the [...]
Oakland Raiders (2-4) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-5) Before the bye, I made a big play on the Chiefs to win in Tampa Bay because I felt they were undervalued because of their terrible turnover differential. I noted how they were on a record worst pace in turnover differential and that, at the very least, [...]
New Orleans Saints (2-4) at Denver Broncos (3-3) Drew Brees looks like Drew Brees again. He struggled, by his standards, in his first few games out of the gate, but you had to figure that eventually he’d get it together, even without Sean Payton, because he’s just too talented. In his last 3 games, he’s [...]
Seattle Seahawks (4-3) at Detroit Lions (2-4) I feel like I say this about the Seahawks every week when I pick their game, but I love picking their games because they have such a big home/road disparity. On the road, they are 16-29 ATS since 2007, as opposed to 30-14 ATS at home. As dogs, [...]
Indianapolis Colts (3-3) at Tennessee Titans (3-4) The winner of this game between the Colts and Titans will either be over .500 or at .500 and well in contention for a playoff spot in the AFC. I told you the AFC sucks. The Titans, however, will be hurt in this quest to do so this [...]
Washington Redskins (3-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (3-3) In a couple other of my picks this week, I said it would be reckless to pick a heavily public backed dog this week with one exception. Dogs are 63-39 ATS on the season. You might think, that’s a reason to take the dog, but eventually that’s going [...]
San Francisco 49ers (5-2) at Arizona Cardinals (4-3) In NFC West matchups, the rule of thumb is to pick the home team. Since 2007, no other division comes close to covering at home at a rate as high as the NFC West, which is 103-74 ATS at in that time period. San Francisco, St. Louis, [...]
Atlanta Falcons (6-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-3) The Falcons are 6-0 and they’re underdogs. Easy money right? That seems to be what the public thinks as most of the action is on the undefeated dog. However, that’s not necessarily always the case with undefeated dogs. Believe it or not, there’s no trend associated with undefeated [...]
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-4) at Minnesota Vikings (5-2) As I like to mention every week, the rule of thumb on Thursday Night is to take the home team. Home teams are 68-49 ATS in the history of Thursday Night football. It makes sense. On a short week, all the time to prepare, practice, and rest [...]
Week 7 Results ATS: 5-6-2 -2 units/-$340 SU: 9-4 Upset Picks: 1-4 -235 Over/Under: 1-0 +100 Parlays: 1-0 +100 Total: -$375 Public Results ATS*: 5-7-1 +5 units 2012 results to date ATS: 50-49-5 +11 units/-$125 SU: 63-41 Upset Picks: 19-21 +$1050 Over/Under: 4-1-1 +290 Parlays: 1-0 +100 Total: +1315 Survivor: 5-2 (HOU, NE, NO, BAL, [...]