Chicago Bears (6-1) at Tennessee Titans (3-5) This was the toughest game of the week for me. At first glance, this looked like a trap line which is normally a good thing to bet against when sportsbetting online. There is heavy public action on Chicago and yet the line is falling (it opened at -5 [...]
Detroit Lions (3-4) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-6) Nate Burleson getting hurt might have been the best thing that could possibly happen to the Lions’ offense. It forced the Lions to replace the mediocre Burleson, who was averaging 8.9 yards per catch and (5.6 yards per target), with explosive 2011 2nd round pick Titus Young and it’s [...]
Buffalo Bills (3-4) at Houston Texans (6-1) Despite Houston’s embarrassing loss to the Packers on Sunday Night a few weeks ago, they still rank 2nd in the league in points differential at +88. Among teams that have already had their bye, they rank 1st. Only New England, who is on bye this week and who [...]
Miami Dolphins (4-3) at Indianapolis Colts (4-3) Both of these teams sit at 4-3, meaning this game could easily have playoff implications and one or both of these teams could make the playoffs. I bet you didn’t see that coming. I would say these teams are pretty equal. I had Miami ranked 10th in my [...]
Philadelphia Eagles (3-4) at New Orleans Saints (2-5) Andy Reid’s perfect 13-0 career record off the bye is gone. The Eagles are 3-4 and the sky is falling in Philadelphia. This line has shifted 1 point since last week. That might not seem like a whole lot, but a shift from -2 to -3 is [...]
Minnesota Vikings (5-3) at Seattle Seahawks (4-4) I think I preface every single one of my picks on Seattle’s game by saying I love picking their games because of their huge home/road disparity. Dating back to 2007, they are 30-14 ATS at home and 16-30 ATS on the road. They’ve lost their last two after [...]
Pittsburgh Steelers (4-3) at New York Giants (6-2) Last week, the Giants won in Dallas in the exact type of game they normally win. They are now 18-7 ATS as road favorites under Tom Coughlin. On the road in general, they are 50-25 ATS under Tom Coughlin, as opposed to 34-38 ATS at home. As [...]
Arizona Cardinals (4-4) at Green Bay Packers (5-3) This is what I said about the Cardinals after their 3-0 start. “Almost every year, there’s a team that gets off to a good start and then fades away and misses the playoffs and makes their believers look dumb (“This Ryan Fitzpatrick is the real deal.” “Rex [...]
Carolina Panthers (1-6) at Washington Redskins (3-5) This is one of two trap lines I identified this week. According to this line, the Redskins and the Panthers are comparable teams with Washington as 3 point home favorites. However, Washington is at 3-5 and the Panthers are at 1-6. Because of that, the action is on [...]
Denver Broncos (4-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-4) The Broncos rank 2nd in the league in yards per play differential at 1.4, just .1 behind San Francisco, who has looked untouchable for weeks in that category. No one else is above 0.7. They rank just 9th in rate of sustaining drives differential, thanks to a 3rd down defense that’s [...]
Dallas Cowboys (3-4) at Atlanta Falcons (7-0) The Falcons are great at home, they’re undefeated, and the Cowboys are a laughing stock. How do they not win by 4 right? Well, as is often the case in betting, when something is too good to be true, it generally is. I think that’s the case here, [...]
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-4) at Oakland Raiders (3-4) After unimpressive wins over the Jaguars and Chiefs, the Raiders now sit at 3-4 and are somehow in the AFC playoff mix. However, they still aren’t very good. They have a point differential of -42. They got blown out in Oakland and in Miami and they weren’t [...]
Baltimore Ravens (5-2) at Cleveland Browns (2-6) Road favorites are 42-15 ATS off a bye. That makes sense. Road favorites tend to be very good teams and very good teams tend to be extra focused with a week off. The Browns kind of got screwed over by the schedulers because they have two straight games [...]
Kansas City Chiefs (1-6) at San Diego Chargers (3-4) Side note: It’s week 9 already?!?!? What?!?!?!? On Thursday Night, the rule of thumb is to take the home team, assuming they’re favorites, as home favorites are 45-27 ATS on Thursday Nights. This makes sense. The home team not only doesn’t have to travel on a short [...]
Week 8 Results ATS: 7-7 -1 unit/-$270 SU: 11-3 Upset Picks: 3-0 +490 Over/Under: 1-1 -10 Total: +$210 Public Results ATS*: 6-8 -1 unit 2012 results to date ATS: 57-56-5 +10 units/-$395 SU: 74-44 Upset Picks: 22-21 +$1540 Over/Under: 5-2-1 +280 Parlays: 1-0 +100 Total: +1535 Survivor: 6-2 (HOU, NE, NO, BAL, SF, ATL, CHI, [...]