Jan 022015

Cincinnati Bengals (10-5-1) at Indianapolis Colts (11-5) In addition to adjusting playoff teams’ rate of moving the chains differentials for strength of schedule, another thing I did differently this week was breaking out schedule adjusted differential into a team’s last 4 games and into a team’s last 8 weeks instead of just the whole season. […]

Jan 022015

Baltimore Ravens (10-6) at Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5) I’m glad the Ravens made the playoffs. If San Diego had been able to beat the Chiefs, it would have eliminated the Ravens, regardless of what the Ravens did in their game against the Browns, and they would have missed the playoffs despite finishing the season ranked 3rd […]

Jan 012015

Detroit Lions (11-5) at Dallas Cowboys (12-4) The Cowboys have been pretty inconsistent this season. They come into the playoffs red hot, ranking 3rd among playoff teams (only behind Seattle and Carolina) in rate of moving the chains differential adjusted for schedule. This makes sense as they won their final 4 to qualify for the […]

Dec 312014

Arizona Cardinals (11-5) at Carolina Panthers (7-8-1) The Panthers went into Atlanta last week and won 34-3, winning the NFC South and securing a home playoff game with a record of 7-8-1. After the game, Tony Dungy remarked that he believed the Panthers could go into Seattle and knock off the Seahawks the way they’re […]

Dec 302014

Week 17 Straight Up: 11-5 Against the Spread: 11-5 Pick of the Week: 1-0 High Confidence: 0-1 Medium Confidence: 5-2 Low Confidence: 2-1 No Confidence: 3-1 Upset Picks: 1-1 2014 Straight Up: 162-93-1 (.635) Against the Spread: 143-109-4 (.567) Pick of the Week: 9-7-1 High Confidence: 8-11 Medium Confidence: 54-30 Low Confidence: 34-29-2 No Confidence: […]