Dec 242014
 

Arizona Cardinals (11-4) at San Francisco 49ers (7-8) This line has shifted from 4 to 6 over the past week. Normally, I love fading significant line movements because they tend to be overreactions. Rate of moving the chains also says this line is too high, as the Cardinals rank 16th, moving the chains at a […]

Dec 242014
 

Dallas Cowboys (11-4) at Washington Redskins (4-11) I’m torn on this one. On one hand, this line has shifted from 8 to 6 over the past week. I love fading significant line movements as they’re often overreactions. This line movement could very well be an overreaction. While the Redskins beat the Eagles last week, they […]

Dec 242014
 

Carolina Panthers (6-8-1) at Atlanta Falcons (6-9) This line is off as it suggests the Falcons are the better of these two teams, considering they are favored by 4. Meanwhile, rate of moving the chains suggests the Panthers are the better team, as they rank 15th in the NFL, moving the chains at a 73.82% […]

Dec 242014
 

Cincinnati Bengals (10-4-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5) The Bengals lost 42-21 at home to the Steelers a few weeks ago in Cincinnati, but they’re in a great revenge spot here as a result. Divisional home favorites are 27-52 ATS since 2002 against a divisional opponent that they previously beat as road underdogs during that same […]

Dec 232014
 

St. Louis Rams (6-9) at Seattle Seahawks (11-4) The Seahawks had easily the most impressive win of the week last week, going into Arizona, where the Cardinals were 7-0 at home this season and 29-11 ATS since 2007 before the game started, and winning 35-6, despite two missed makeable field goals. Holding a Ryan Lindley […]

Dec 232014
 

San Diego Chargers (9-6) at Kansas City Chiefs (8-7) The Chiefs beat the Chargers in San Diego earlier this season, but that’s because the Chargers were in a terrible spot (the worst spot I’ve seen all since), with a Thursday Night road game in Denver on deck, while the Chiefs only had a home game […]

Dec 232014
 

Cleveland Browns (7-8) at Baltimore Ravens (9-6) The Browns’ offense ranks 27th in the NFL, moving the chains at a 67.55% rate, and they’ve gotten progressively worse as the season has gone on. They’re moving the chains at a pathetic 63.44% rate over the past 10 games since Alex Mack went down. The returns of […]

Dec 232014
 

Jacksonville Jaguars (3-12) at Houston Texans (8-7) This game involves a significant line movement as the Texans were 7.5 point favorites according to the early line last week, while they are now 10 point favorites. I love fading a significant line movement whenever it makes sense, as significant line movements are usually overreactions. It makes […]

Dec 232014
 

New York Jets (3-12) at Miami Dolphins (8-7) The Jets said it themselves (or at least safety Calvin Pryor did). Last week’s game at home against the Patriots was their Super Bowl. Unfortunately for the Jets, they can’t even win pretend Super Bowls, but they did only lose by 1, the 4th straight Patriots/Jets game […]

Dec 232014
 

Chicago Bears (5-10) at Minnesota Vikings (6-9) The Bears made a curious move last week, benching big money quarterback Jay Cutler for journeyman backup Jimmy Clausen. Cutler wasn’t necessarily living up to his contract, but the offense wasn’t the issue with the team, as they were moving the chains at a 74.43% rate in Cutler’s […]

Dec 232014
 

Indianapolis Colts (10-5) at Tennessee Titans (2-13) The Colts were embarrassed last week in a 42-7 loss in Dallas. I had Colts +3 as my Pick of the Week and I messed up big time. I failed to take into account the Colts’ relative road struggles, their struggles with quality opponents in recent years, including […]

Dec 232014
 

New Orleans Saints (6-9) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-13) The Saints were eliminated from the playoffs last week with their 5th straight home loss, a loss to Atlanta which dropped them to 6-9 on the season. However, they’ve played well enough this season to suggest that if they played an infinite amount of 16 game […]

Dec 222014
 

Last week Against the Spread: 7-8-1 Straight Up: 8-8 Pick of the Week: 0-1 High Confidence: 0-0 Medium Confidence: 4-1 Low Confidence: 2-3 No Confidence: 1-3-1 Upset Picks: 0-1 On the season Against the Spread: 132-104-4 (.559) Straight Up: 151-88-1 (.632) Pick of the Week: 8-7-1 High Confidence: 8-10 Medium Confidence: 49-28 Low Confidence: 32-28-2 […]