Nov 282015
 

Baltimore Ravens (3-7) at Cleveland Browns (2-8) This has been the season from hell for the Ravens. After going 11-5, winning a playoff game, and finishing the season 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential a year ago, the Ravens lost outside linebacker Pernell McPhee, defensive tackle Haloti Ngata, wide receiver Torrey Smith, and […]

Nov 282015
 

Miami Dolphins (4-6) at New York Jets (5-5) This might sound weird considering they’re 5-5 and have struggled on offense, but the Jets actually rank 5th in rate of moving the chains differential. It makes more sense when you consider two things. One, while their offense has really struggled, ranking 26th in rate of moving […]

Nov 282015
 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-5) at Indianapolis Colts (5-5) Matt Hasselbeck is 3-0 as the Colts’ starter and the Colts have moved the chains at a 72.04% rate in his 3 starts, as opposed to 69.66% in Andrew Luck’s 7 starts. Certainly getting Luck back healthy for the stretch run and playoffs is very important because, […]

Nov 282015
 

San Diego Chargers (2-8) at Jacksonville Jaguars (4-6) The Chargers’ 2-8 record is tied for the worst in the NFL, but they have played better than their record. Their defense has been horrendous, ranking 29th in rate of moving the chains allowed, but their offense ranks 5th, as quarterback Philip Rivers has played very well […]

Nov 272015
 

Arizona Cardinals (8-2) at San Francisco 49ers (3-7) The Cardinals were favored by just 8 points in this game against the 49ers on the early line last week, but the line has since moved to 10. Ordinarily, I like to fade significant week-to-week line movements because they tend to be overreactions to a single week, […]

Nov 272015
 

Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4) at Seattle Seahawks (5-5) The Seahawks are favored by 3.5 points here at home, where they are 21-4 straight up (outscoring opponents by an average of 11.38 points per game) in their last 25 games, since the start of the 2013 season. Over those 25 games, they were favored by fewer than […]

Nov 252015
 

Carolina Panthers (10-0) at Dallas Cowboys (3-7) Carolina is undefeated and Dallas is 3-7, but the Cowboys are the ones favored here in Dallas (albeit by 1 point). That’s because 5 of the Cowboys’ 7 losses have come by less than a touchdown and they’re finally healthy offensively. Tony Romo made just his 3rd start […]

Nov 252015
 

Chicago Bears (4-6) at Green Bay Packers (7-3) The Packers lost to the lowly Lions in their last home game, but they’ve generally had a ton of success at Lambeau recently. As long as Aaron Rodgers starts (minus any games he’s been knocked out very early with injuries), the Packers are 30-13-1 ATS at home since […]

Nov 242015
 

Week 11 Straight Up: 6-8 Against the Spread: 5-9 Pick of the Week: 0-1 High Confidence: 0-2 Medium Confidence: 1-1 Low Confidence: 2-3 No Confidence: 2-2 Upset Picks: 0-3 2015 Straight Up: 94-66 Against the Spread: 66-90-4 Pick of the Week: 5-6 High Confidence: 8-8 Medium Confidence: 18-21-1 Low Confidence: 17-29-1 No Confidence: 18-26-2 Upset […]