Dec 202015
 

Tennessee Titans (3-10) at New England Patriots (11-2) The Titans rank just 26th in rate of moving the chains differential, but have been pretty solid offensively, outside of the 2 games that talented rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota missed with injury. In those 2 games, they moved the chains at a 53.57% rate, as opposed to […]

Dec 202015
 

Arizona Cardinals (11-2) at Philadelphia Eagles (6-7) The Cardinals rank first in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential, despite having a couple losses. In those 2 losses, they won the first down battle by a combined 20 first downs and only lost because they had a -3 turnover margin in both games. […]

Dec 202015
 

Detroit Lions (4-9) at New Orleans Saints (5-8) The Saints were favored by just 1.5 points over the Lions on the early line last week, but have since jumped to 3 point favorites, following their upset victory in Tampa Bay and the Lions’ upset loss in St. Louis. That’s a significant line movement, considering about […]

Dec 202015
 

Houston Texans (6-7) at Indianapolis Colts (6-7) The Colts lost 51-16 in Jacksonville last week, but the good news is that teams are 51-27 ATS since 2002 off of a loss of 35+ points. It’s counter-intuitive, but it makes sense, as teams tend to be embarrassed, overlooked, and undervalued in that spot. The Colts lost […]

Dec 192015
 

Atlanta Falcons (6-7) at Jacksonville Jaguars (5-8) This line was even a week ago on the early line, but the Jaguars have since become field goal favorites, a significant line movement, considering about 1 in 4 games are decided by a field goal or less. I love fading significant line movements whenever it makes sense […]

Dec 192015
 

Kansas City Chiefs (8-5) at Baltimore Ravens (5-8) This has been the season from hell for the Ravens. After going 11-5, winning a playoff game, and finishing the season 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential a year ago, the Ravens lost outside linebacker Pernell McPhee, defensive tackle Haloti Ngata, wide receiver Torrey Smith, and […]

Dec 192015
 

Cincinnati Bengals (10-3) at San Francisco 49ers (4-9) The 49ers are the worst team in rate of moving the chains differential by a mile, coming in at -11.92%, while no one else is worse than -7.14%. That was on display last week, as they lost 24-10 in Cleveland, against a terrible Browns team. The Bengals, […]

Dec 192015
 

Buffalo Bills (6-7) at Washington Redskins (6-7) The Bills are in a good spot here this week, hosting the Cowboys next week, while the Redskins have a key divisional matchup in Philadelphia, which could decide the division. All games are important for the Redskins going forward, as they’re currently locked in a 3-way tie atop […]

Dec 192015
 

Denver Broncos (10-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (8-5) The Steelers are on fire right now. They’ve been fantastic since Ben Roethlisberger came back from injury. They lost to Cincinnati and Seattle, but both of those games were close and both of those opponents are very tough. They also beat Cincinnati in the rematch last week (though […]

Dec 192015
 

Cleveland Browns (3-10) at Seattle Seahawks (8-5) The Seahawks’ home dominance is well documented. Since 2007, they are 54-23 at home (outscoring opponents by an average of 7.77 points per game), as opposed to 31-45 on the road (getting outscored by an average of 1.72 points per game). However, their home dominance might be too […]

Dec 162015
 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-7) at St. Louis Rams (5-8) Ordinarily, non-divisional home favorites do really well on Thursday nights, going 26-13 ATS since 2002. It makes sense. It’s tough for a team to face an unfamiliar and superior opponent on a short week on the road. The Rams are non-divisional home favorites on Thursday night […]