Jan 062017
 

New York Giants (11-5) at Green Bay Packers (10-6) I always talk about the inconsistency of turnover margins and why using past turnover margins as evidence for predictions of future turnover margins is basically useless. On average, a team that wins the turnover battle by 4 in a game has a turnover margin of +0.0 […]

Jan 062017
 

Detroit Lions (9-7) at Seattle Seahawks (10-5-1) Detroit made the playoffs with a 9-7 record, despite losing their final 3 games of the regular season, but they’re one of a few playoff teams I don’t think much of (Houston, Oakland, and Miami are the others). They’re the only playoff team that hasn’t beaten another playoff […]

Jan 062017
 

Miami Dolphins (10-6) at Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5) The Dolphins made the playoffs for the first time since 2008 thanks to a 10-6 record, but they still have a lot of problems and are not as good as their record suggests. Many of their wins were close, while many of their losses were not. They went […]

Jan 052017
 

2016 Straight Up: 160-94-2 (62.99%) Against the Spread: 123-123-10 (50.00%) Pick of the Week: 11-6-0 (64.71%) High Confidence: 12-17-2 (41.38%) Medium Confidence: 40-26-4 (60.61%) Money Picks (Medium confidence and higher): 63-49-6 (56.25%) Low Confidence: 30-39-2 (43.48%) No Confidence: 30-35-2 (46.15%) Upset Picks: 25-25 (50.00%) Since 2013 Straight Up: 666-387-4 (63.25%) Against the Spread: 545-484-28 (52.96%) […]