Dec 032016
 

Los Angeles Rams (4-7) at New England Patriots (9-2) The Patriots enter this game 2nd in first down rate differential, despite the fact that they were missing starting quarterback Tom Brady for the first 4 games of the season, but there’s still plenty of reason to be concerned with them. Their defense hasn’t been the […]

Dec 032016
 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-5) at San Diego Chargers (5-6) The Buccaneers got an impressive home victory over the Seahawks last week, but teams tend not to cover coming off of a home upset victory, going 60-80 ATS the following week since 2012. Teams tend to be overrated off of a home upset victory, as they […]

Dec 032016
 

Kansas City Chiefs (8-3) at Atlanta Falcons (7-4) For weeks, the Chiefs have been at the top of my overrated teams list. They’re still on the list, as they are overly reliant on winning close games (5 wins by a touchdown or fewer), winning the turnover margin (+14 on the season), and getting return touchdowns […]

Dec 032016
 

Philadelphia Eagles (5-6) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-7-1) Before the season started, I had the Bengals on my list of teams that I thought would disappoint. They won 12 games last season and were 10-2 before losing quarterback Andy Dalton for the season with injury, but outside of Dalton they barely had an injuries last season, […]

Dec 032016
 

Washington Redskins (6-4-1) at Arizona Cardinals (4-6-1) I’ve lost money on the Cardinals in back-to-back weeks, but their price keeps dropping, so I’m going to keep buying. As a result of Arizona’s big loss in Atlanta last week, this line has dropped from 3.5 last week on the early line to 2.5 this week, a […]

Dec 032016
 

Miami Dolphins (7-4) at Baltimore Ravens (6-5) This line at 3.5 in favor of the hometown Baltimore Ravens suggests the Ravens are a slightly better team than the Dolphins. I think it’s the opposite. Both teams come into this game relatively healthy compared to most of the season, with the Dolphins getting left tackle Branden […]

Nov 292016
 

Week 12 Straight Up: 12-4 Against the spread: 9-6-1 Pick of the Week: 1-0 High Confidence: 1-1 Medium Confidence: 2-1 Low Confidence: 3-3 No Confidence: 2-1-1 Upset Picks: 0-1 Season Straight Up: 110-65-2 (62.86%) Against the spread: 83-85-9 (49.40%) Pick of the Week: 9-3 (75.00%) High Confidence: 10-10-2 (50.00%) Medium Confidence: 28-18-3 (60.87%) Low Confidence: […]