Dec 312016
 

Cincinnati Bengals (5-9-1) at Baltimore Ravens (8-7) When both are fully healthy, I have the Bengals a little higher than the Ravens, as they rank 14th in first down rate differential and the Ravens rank 21st, but the Bengals are far from fully healthy right now. Not only are they missing wide receiver AJ Green […]

Dec 312016
 

Houston Texans (9-6) at Tennessee Titans (8-7) The Titans had a week from hell last week. Not only did they suffer their biggest loss of the season, losing 38-17 in Jacksonville of all places (previously their biggest loss this season was by 9), but they also lost starting quarterback Marcus Mariota with a broken leg […]

Dec 312016
 

Oakland Raiders (12-3) at Denver Broncos (8-7) The Raiders were dealt a huge blow last week when quarterback Derek Carr broke his leg, likely knocking him out for the season, but, despite their record, the Raiders probably would have had trouble advancing deep in the playoffs regardless. Even though they are 12-3, they rank just […]

Dec 312016
 

New England Patriots (13-2) at Miami Dolphins (10-5) In a league with few top level teams, the Patriots have to stand out atop the league. Not only are they the Patriots and they’ve done this before, but they rank 1st in the NFL in first down rate differential and point differential, despite not even having […]

Dec 312016
 

Green Bay Packers (9-6) at Detroit Lions (9-6) I always talk about the inconsistency of turnover margins and why using past turnover margins as evidence for predictions of future turnover margins is basically useless. The Packers are a great example of that. Through the first 12 games of the season, the Packers were -5 in […]

Dec 312016
 

New York Giants (10-5) at Washington Redskins (8-6-1) I typically don’t like to bet on teams that are expected to rest their starters, but I’m making an exception here because, even though this line suggests the Giants are going to rest their starters and they don’t have anything to play for locked into the 5th […]

Dec 302016
 

Arizona Cardinals (6-8-1) at Los Angeles Rams (4-11) The Cardinals pulled the upset victory in Seattle last week, a shock to many people, considering they were 8 point underdogs. However, it shouldn’t have come as too much of a surprise, given that the Cardinals have played significantly better than their record this season. They’ve had […]