Oct 152016
 

Philadelphia Eagles (3-1) at Washington Redskins (3-2) This line was even last week, but has since shifted a full three points, with the Eagles now favored by a field goal in Washington, despite the fact that Philadelphia lost in Detroit and Washington won in Baltimore. Ordinarily, I like to fade significant line movements, but Philadelphia […]

Oct 152016
 

Los Angeles Rams (3-2) at Detroit Lions (2-3) This line at 3 suggests these two teams are equal. I disagree with that. Despite, having a worse record than the Rams, the Lions are the significantly superior team in this matchup. Despite having three wins, the Rams rank dead last in first down percentage differential and […]

Oct 152016
 

Dallas Cowboys (4-1) at Green Bay Packers (3-1) The Cowboys pulled an impressive home upset victory over the Cincinnati Bengals last week, winning 28-14. Ordinarily, teams struggle after a home upset victory, as teams are 53-77 ATS in that spot since 2012. One of the reasons for that is home upset wins tend to move […]

Oct 152016
 

Atlanta Falcons (4-1) at Seattle Seahawks (3-1) The Falcons have started an impressive 4-1, with wins over Oakland, Carolina, and Denver, three tough football teams. Last week, they beat the Broncos by a touchdown in Denver, as 4 point underdogs. This week, they’re 6.5 point underdogs in Seattle. The Seahawks are a better team than […]

Oct 152016
 

Cleveland Browns (0-5) at Tennessee Titans (2-3) Ordinarily, I like to go against significant week-to-week line movements, because they tend to be overreactions to a single week of play. The early line for this game had the Titans as 5.5 point favorites, but the line has since moved up to 7 this week. However, that’s […]

Oct 152016
 

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-3) at Chicago Bears (1-4) This one is tough. Despite similar records and arguably similar levels of talent, the Bears have significantly outplayed the Jaguars through the first 5 weeks of the season. Despite a ton of injuries (Pernell McPhee, Eddie Goldman, Kevin White, LaMarr Houston, Kyle Fuller, Jay Cutler), the Bears rank […]