May 122012
 

You hear it every year. The Falcons should take Glenn Dorsey over Matt Ryan because there’s going to be more Matt Ryans in the 2nd round and Dorsey is a once in a lifetime prospect. The Lions should take Aaron Curry over Matt Stafford because there’s going to be more Matt Staffords in the 2nd round and Curry is a once in a lifetime prospect. The Rams should take Ndamukong Suh over Sam Bradford because there are more Sam Bradfords in the 2nd round and Suh is a once in a lifetime prospect. The Panthers should take Patrick Peterson/AJ Green/Marcell Dareus because there’s going to be more Cam Newtons in the 2nd round. Well, are there really more Matt Ryans, Matt Staffords, Sam Bradfords, and Cam Newtons in the 2nd round. History says no.

Giovanni Carmazzi- San Francisco 49ers

Pick 65 2000 (3rd round)

0 snaps, out of league in 2 years

Chris Redman- Baltimore Ravens

Pick 75 2000 (3rd round)

286-500 (57.2) 3179 yards (6.4) 21 TD 14 INT

Drew Brees- San Diego Chargers

Pick 32 2001 (2nd round)

4035-6149 (65.6) 45919 yards (7.5) 324 TD 165 INT

PRO BOWL

SUPER BOWL

Quincy Carter- Dallas Cowboys

Pick 52 2001 (2nd round)

542-960 (56.5) 6337 yards (6.6) 32 TD 37 INT

Marques Tuiasosopo- Oakland Raiders

Pick 59 2001 (2nd round)

49-90 (54.4) 554 yards (6.2) 2 TD 7 INT

Josh McCown- Arizona Cardinals

Pick 81 2002 (3rd round)

645-1113 (58.0) 6998 yards (6.3) 37 TD 44 INT

Dave Ragone- Houston Texans

Pick 88 2003 (3rd round)

20-40 (50.0) 135 yards (3.4) 0 TD 1 INT

Chris Simms- Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Pick 97 2003 (3rd round)

297-511 (58.1) 3117 yards (6.1) 12 TD 18 INT

Matt Schaub- Atlanta Falcons

Pick 90 2004 (3rd round)

1816-2823 (64.3) 21944 yards (7.8) 120 TD 70 INT

PRO BOWL

Charlie Frye- Cleveland Browns

Pick 67 2005 (3rd round)

419-677 (61.9) 4154 yards (6.1) 17 TD 29 INT

Andrew Walter- Oakland Raiders

Pick 69 2005 (3rd round)

174-333 (52.3) 1919 yards (5.8) 3 TD 16 INT

David Greene- Seattle Seahawks

Pick 85 2005 (3rd round)

0 snaps, out of league in 2 years

Kellen Clemens- New York Jets

Pick 49 2006 (2nd round)

196-378 (51.9) 2271 yards (6.0) 7 TD 13 INT

Tarvaris Jackson- Minnesota

Pick 64 2006 (2nd round)

625-1053 (59.4) 7075 yards (6.9) 38 TD 35 INT

Charlie Whitehurst- San Diego

Pick 81 2006 (3rd round)

84-155 (54.2), 805 yards (5.2), 3 TD, 4 INT

Brodie Croyle- Kansas City

Pick 85 2006 (3rd round)

181-319 (56.7) 1669 yards (5.2) 8 TD 9 INT

Kevin Kolb- Philadelphia

Pick 36 2007 (2nd round)

449-755 (59.5) 5620 yards (6.9) 28 TD 25 INT

John Beck- Miami

Pick 40 2007 (2nd round)

140-239 (58.6) 1417 yards (5.9) 3 TD 7 INT

Drew Stanton

Pick 43 2007 (2nd round)

104-187 (55.6) 1158 yards (6.2) 5 TD 9 INT

Trent Edwards

Pick 92 2007 (3rd round)

563-929 (60.5) 6031 yards (6.5) 26 TD 30 INT

Brian Brohm

Pick 56 2008 (2nd round)

27-52 (51.9) 252 yards (4.9) 0 TD 5 INT

Chad Henne

Pick 57 2008 (2nd round)

812-1373 (59.1) 9198 yards (6.7) 42 TD 387 INT

Kevin O’Connell

Pick 94 2008 (3rd round)

4-6 (66.7) 23 yards (3.8) 0 TD 0 INT

Pat White

Pick 44 2009 (2nd round)

0-5 0 yards 0 TD 0 INT

I am not using anyone from 2010-2013 drafts here because its too soon to tell with most of them what kind of quarterback they will be in this league. For the record, those quarterbacks are Jimmy Clausen, Colt McCoy, Andy Dalton, Colin Kaepernick, Ryan Mallett, Brock Osweiler, Russell Wilson, Geno Smith, and Mike Glennon.

Of the 27 quarterbacks drafted in the 2nd or 3rd round between 2000-2008, only 2 have made Pro Bowls. Only 1 has won a Super Bowl, Drew Brees and he was actually drafted in the top 32 picks, just not in the first round because the league just had 31 teams at that time. Only 5 have thrown more than 1000 passes in the NFL. Only 5 have even thrown more touchdowns than interceptions in their career. Only 4 have a career completion percentage of 60% or higher (minimum 100 throws).

So the verdict looks pretty clear, waiting until the 2nd round to draft your franchise signal caller, not a smart move. First round quarterbacks don’t always pan out all the time either, but they are a lot more likely to pan out than a 2nd or 3rd round pick. If you have a first round grade on a quarterback, and that quarterback is available to you in the first round, and you need a quarterback, pull the trigger.

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