Nov 272015
 

Arizona Cardinals (8-2) at San Francisco 49ers (3-7)

The Cardinals were favored by just 8 points in this game against the 49ers on the early line last week, but the line has since moved to 10. Ordinarily, I like to fade significant week-to-week line movements because they tend to be overreactions to a single week, but I still don’t think this line is high enough, even with the Cardinals being the first double digit road favorites of the season. The Cardinals rank 1st in rate of moving the chains differential, while the 49ers rank dead last by a wide margin. This is a matchup of easily the worst team in the league and possibly the best so even 10 points isn’t enough to scare me off of taking the Cardinals on the road.

The Cardinals are also in a way better spot, as they go to St. Louis next, where the early line has them as 6 point favorites, while the 49ers have to go to Chicago, where the early line has them as 6.5 point underdogs. Teams are 73-52 ATS since 2010 before being road favorites of 6+, which the Cardinals are expected to be. On top of that, favorites of 6+ are 113-73 ATS before being favorites of 6+ again, since 2010.  On the other side, 6+ point underdogs are 73-101 ATS before being 6+ point underdogs again, since 2010. Combining everything, 6+ point favorites are 36-13 ATS since 2010 before being 6+ point favorites again when their opponent will next be 6+ point underdogs. While the 49ers could definitely be distracted with another tough game on deck, the Cardinals have a very easy game on deck and should be completely focused to blow out a significantly inferior opponent this week. I’m confident enough in Arizona to put money on them.

Arizona Cardinals 31 San Francisco 49ers 13

Pick against the spread: Arizona -10

Confidence: Medium

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