Sep 242016

Baltimore Ravens (2-0) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-2)

Through 2 games, the Ravens lead the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential (RMCD). Of course, it’s only two games and their competition hasn’t been hard (Buffalo and Cleveland), but the Jaguars don’t seem much better. Through 2 games, they’re 30th in RMCD, after finishing last season 27th in rate of moving the chains differential. They have a stronger roster than they did last season and figure to be better overall, but right now they’re not healthy. Left tackle Kelvin Beachum has already been ruled out, while center Brandon Linder, cornerback Prince Amukamara, and defensive tackle Jared Odrick are all highly questionable for this one. Those are 4 of their best players.

The Ravens, meanwhile, are relatively healthy (especially compared to last season) and may get Elvis Dumervil back from injury this week, after their top pass rusher missed the first 2 games of the season. The Jaguars are also in a tough spot with a trip to London to play the Colts on deck. Teams are just 6-18 ATS all-time before a game in London. It makes sense that a long trip would serve as a big distraction. As long as this line stays under a field goal, I like the Ravens enough to put money on them as road favorites.

Baltimore Ravens 24 Jacksonville Jaguars 20

Pick against the spread: Baltimore -1

Confidence: Medium

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