Oct 152016
 

Baltimore Ravens (3-2) at New York Giants (2-3)

This line has shifted a half point since the early line last week, as the Giants are now 3.5 point favorites. That might not seem like a huge line movement, but, considering 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal, it’s a very significant half point. Ordinarily, I like to fade significant week-to-week line movements, but in this case the movement makes sense, as the Ravens are expected to be without edge rusher Elvis Dumervil, wide receiver Steve Smith, middle linebacker CJ Mosley, right guard Marshal Yanda, and left tackle Ronnie Stanley. That’s a huge chunk of their team they’re missing.

Smith, Mosley, and Yanda are missing their first games of the season, while Dumervil is out again after re-injuring his foot, which originally cost him the first 3 games of the season. Yanda is an especially big loss, as he’s one of the best guards in the league. Without him and Stanley (who will miss his 3rd straight game) on the line, this offense figures to continue to struggle. All that being said, I’m still taking the Ravens because the Giants have a London game on deck and teams understandably are 7-19 ATS before a London game all-time and because 1 in 4 games are decided by a field goal or less. I have no confidence in Baltimore, but they’re the pick at 3.5. At 3, I might change my pick. That’s how close this is.

New York Giants 20 Baltimore Ravens 17

Pick against the spread: Baltimore +3.5

Confidence: None

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