Oct 022015

Kansas City Chiefs (1-2) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-0) The Chiefs are only 1-2, but they’ve had the misfortune of playing both the 3-0 Broncos and the 3-0 Packers. They could have easily beaten the Broncos and, while they lost in Green Bay last week, doing so is not that uncommon. The schedule doesn’t get much […]

Sep 262015

Cincinnati Bengals (2-0) at Baltimore Ravens (0-2) I had the Ravens winning 11 games, the AFC North, and making the playoffs coming into the season, after finishing 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential in 2014. However, they have started the season 0-2. Losing in Denver was understandable, but their loss in Oakland was […]

Sep 122015

Cincinnati Bengals (0-0) at Oakland Raiders (0-0) To start the season, this week has 8 games that feature road favorites (and no game that features a line higher than a touchdown). Almost every single one of those 8 road favorites is heavily backed by the public.  I hate making big plays on road favorites that […]

Jan 022015

Cincinnati Bengals (10-5-1) at Indianapolis Colts (11-5) In addition to adjusting playoff teams’ rate of moving the chains differentials for strength of schedule, another thing I did differently this week was breaking out schedule adjusted differential into a team’s last 4 games and into a team’s last 8 weeks instead of just the whole season. […]

Dec 242014

Cincinnati Bengals (10-4-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5) The Bengals lost 42-21 at home to the Steelers a few weeks ago in Cincinnati, but they’re in a great revenge spot here as a result. Divisional home favorites are 27-52 ATS since 2002 against a divisional opponent that they previously beat as road underdogs during that same […]

Dec 202014

Denver Broncos (11-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (9-4-1) The Bengals had a huge performance in Cleveland last week, winning the first down battle 24-5 against the Browns and moving the chains at a 78.38% rate, as opposed to 35.71% for their opponents. However, they still rank just 17th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving […]

Dec 122014

Cincinnati Bengals (8-4-1) at Cleveland Browns (7-6) This line has shifted from the Bengals being favored by 1.5 earlier in the week to the Browns now being favored by 1.5. That erased a powerful trend working against the Bengals and replaced it with a powerful trend that works for the Bengals. That first trend says […]

Dec 062014

Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5) at Cincinnati Bengals (8-3-1) The Bengals have been very good at home over the past 2 seasons. The Bengals are 12-2-1 at home since 2013, outscoring opponents by an average of 10.40 points per game, going 11-4 against the spread. They are also in a good spot because they are projected to […]

Nov 282014

Cincinnati Bengals (7-3-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-9) At first glance, the Buccaneers are in a terrible spot. After this game, they have to go to Detroit, where they could easily be double digit underdogs. The early line was 9, but after Detroit looked good on national TV on Thanksgiving that line could be pushed […]

Nov 192014

Cincinnati Bengals (6-3-1) at Houston Texans (5-5) I love fading the public whenever it makes sense. The odds makers always make money in the long run and they always have a much better sense of how good each team actually is because it’s their job to set these lines. I especially love fading the public […]

Nov 152014

Cincinnati Bengals (5-3-1) at New Orleans Saints (4-5) The Saints lost at home last week after previously winning 20 straight games under Sean Payton at home. Still, I like them at home a lot. They are still 18-2-1 ATS at home over their last 21 home games with Drew Brees and Sean Payton, outscoring opponents […]

Nov 012014

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-7) at Cincinnati Bengals (4-2-1) Overall on the season, the Bengals really haven’t played well, as they rank way down at 27th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 71.36% rate, as opposed to 75.10% for their opponents, a differential of -3.74%. However, they’ve been much better at […]

Oct 232014

Baltimore Ravens (5-2) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-2-1) The Bengals were embarrassed on the road in Indianapolis last week, getting blown out by the final score of 27-0. Now they’re favored to beat the 5-2 Ravens. You should put all your money on Baltimore as underdogs right? Well, that’s ignoring the Bengals’ home dominance and the […]

Oct 092014

Carolina Panthers (3-2) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-1) The Bengals got destroyed last week by the Patriots, who got destroyed the previous week by the Chiefs, and now they’re without AJ Green, after already being without Marvin Jones and Tyler Eifert. How will they be able to bounce back? Well, for one thing, they’re getting Vontaze […]

Sep 302014

Cincinnati Bengals (3-0) at New England Patriots (2-2) The Patriots are in three spots this week that have easily been auto-bets for them in the Bill Belichick/Tom Brady era. They are 1.5 point underdogs here at home. They are coming off of a loss. And they are facing an opponent with a better record than […]

Sep 182014

Tennessee Titans (1-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (2-0) The Bengals beat the Falcons 24-10 last week in Cincinnati, making it 10 straight regular season home games that they’ve not only won but covered, winning by an average of 16.1 points per game. They moved the chains at a 75.00% rate, as opposed to 64.51% for their […]

Sep 112014

Atlanta Falcons (1-0) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-0) I had the Bengals going 12-4 before the season started. I thought they were better than their record last season because they were able to be a dominant team (11-5) without relying on always winning the turnover battle. Turnover margins are really unpredictable and inconsistent on a week-to-week […]