The 4-year, 20 million dollar deal the Bills gave McKelvin contains 7.5 million guaranteed and is an overpay just because I don’t know who else would have shelled out that kind of dough for him. However, it’s very possible he ends up being worth that for them. He’s a dynamic returner who led the NFL [...]
On paper, this deal isn’t a terrible value. Tarvaris Jackson can earn up to 4.5 million with incentives with this deal, which isn’t unreasonable for a solid backup quarterback, which is what I think Jackson is. No longer is Jackson the “project/developmental quarterback.” He turns 30 in a couple of months and he’s as good [...]
With an easy schedule and a revamped defense, the Bills were a popular sleeper team heading into the season. The defense looked good and as limited as Ryan Fitzpatrick is, their stellar offensive line and strong running game would be able to support him enough against an easy schedule. Well, that was about half true. [...]
New York Jets (6-9) at Buffalo Bills (5-10) Aside from this being a divisional matchup, this is a completely meaningless game for these two teams. Both are out of the playoffs by a long shot and both could easily have new Head Coaches and starting quarterbacks next season. I don’t like to make big plays [...]
Last week: 24 (+0) Record: 5-10 Net points per drive: -0.64 (28th) DVOA: -14.4% (24th) Weighted DVOA: -11.4% (24th) Studs RB CJ Spiller: Rushed for 138 yards (128 after contact) on 22 attempts, 6 broken tackles, caught 4 passes for 35 yards on 5 attempts, allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 9 pass block snaps CB [...]
Buffalo Bills (5-9) at Miami Dolphins (6-8) The Bills got blown out last week, losing 50-17 “at home” in Toronto to the Seahawks. As a result, they rank 28th in points per drive at -0.58. The Dolphins, on the other hand, rank 17th at -0.04. If you take the difference, multiply by 11 (average amount [...]
Last week: 23 (+0) Record: 5-9 Net points per drive: -0.58 (28th) DVOA: -10.0% (22nd) Weighted DVOA: -7.8% (22nd) The Bills have two divisional games left with equal caliber teams. They beat the Dolphins in Buffalo and now travel to Miami. They lost to the Jets in New York and now host them. Common logic [...]
Not a lot of people know who Kraig Urbik is, but he’s a starting right guard for the Buffalo Bills and he’s actually quite good. A 2 year starter, Urbik graded out as ProFootballFocus 18th ranked guard in 8 starts in 2011 and ranks 24th this season in 11 starts, making him an above average [...]
Seattle Seahawks (8-5) at Buffalo Bills (5-8) The Seahawks have the biggest home/road disparity over the last few years. They are 23-43 ATS on the road and 46-20 ATS at home since 2005. This year, they are a perfect 6-0 ATS at home, including 3-0 SU as home dogs, but on the road they are [...]
Last week: 19 (-4) Record: 5-8 Net points per drive: -0.41 (26th) DVOA: -6.5% (21st) Weighted DVOA: -2.0% (17th) Buffalo has two divisional games against comparable teams, one in Miami, who they already beat, and one at home for the Jets, who they already lost to. I say they split those 2 and the Seattle [...]
St. Louis Rams (5-6-1) at Buffalo Bills (5-7) This is a matchup of two teams that are below .500, but actually playing good football over the last few weeks. Since the bye, the Bills have played the Texans and Patriots close on the road, beaten Miami, lost in Indianapolis by only a special teams touchdown, [...]
Last week: 19 (+4) Record: 5-7 Net points per drive: -0.42 (24th) DVOA: -7.1% (22nd) Weighted DVOA: -1.3% (17th) Studs LT Cordy Glenn: Did not allow a pressured on 21 pass block snaps, run blocked for 7 yards on 2 attempts LG Andy Levitre: Did not allow a pressured on 21 pass block snaps, run [...]
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-9) at Buffalo Bills (4-7) One of the most powerful trends in betting is known as the six and six trend, meaning teams who finished with 6 wins or fewer are 23-64 ATS as favorites of 6 or more since 2002. There are two issues with this trend. One, it’s very rare (it [...]
Last week: 21 (-2) Record: 4-7 Net points per drive: -0.62 (28th) DVOA: -9.8% (22nd) Weighted DVOA: -8.9% (23rd) Tier 6: Not going to make the playoffs, but they can pull some upsets down the stretch Studs LG Andy Levitre: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 39 pass block snaps, run blocked for 36 yards on [...]
Buffalo Bills (4-6) at Indianapolis Colts (6-4) I’ve called Indianapolis a perpetually underrated team all year. Starting week 2, they were home dogs for Minnesota, 3 point home favorites for Jacksonville, touchdown home dogs for the Packers, 3.5 point road dogs against the Jets, 1 point home favorites for Cleveland, 3.5 point road dogs against [...]
Last week: 25 (+4) Record: 4-6 It’s looking more and more likely that Ryan Fitzpatrick will not be back as the starter next season, owed 7.25 million non-guaranteed. GM Buddy Nix is known for being an open book when it comes to his offseason plans and his draft plans in particular. In 2010, he mentioned [...]
Last week: 25 (+0) Record: 3-6 CJ Spiller is having a ridiculous year. He leads all eligible running backs in YPC by a yard and a half over Adrian Peterson, who is 2nd. Spiller is at 7.3. Peterson is at 5.8 He’s at 4.3 yards per carry after contact, which is about an average total [...]
Miami Dolphins (4-5) at Buffalo Bills (3-6) Things have really gone south for the Dolphins in the past few weeks. How south? 2 weeks ago they were in a playoff spot in the AFC and road favorites going to Indianapolis. Two weeks later, they are 4-5 and are dogs in Buffalo. Not only that, but [...]
Buffalo Bills (3-5) at New England Patriots (5-3) Poor Bills. Last week they had to face the Texans and now they have to face the Patriots. Well, maybe it’s not so bad. While teams struggle as double digit dogs before being double digit dogs, 22-42 ATS since 2002, a situation the Bills lost in last [...]
Last week: 26 (+1) Record: 3-6 The Bills actually move up a spot despite a 12 point loss to the Texans because I felt the Titans, who have the league’s worst points differential, were way less impressive (despite their head-to-head win over the Bills) and dropped the Titans 2 spots. The Bills were slightly more [...]
Buffalo Bills (3-4) at Houston Texans (6-1) Despite Houston’s embarrassing loss to the Packers on Sunday Night a few weeks ago, they still rank 2nd in the league in points differential at +88. Among teams that have already had their bye, they rank 1st. Only New England, who is on bye this week and who [...]
Last week: 26 (-2) Record: 3-4 On bye.
Tennessee Titans (2-4) at Buffalo Bills (3-3) These two teams are actually very, very similar. Tennessee ranks 29th in yards per play differential and Buffalo ranks 30th. Buffalo also ranks 30th in rate of sustaining drives differential, while Tennessee ranks 31st. I picked both teams for big plays last week because, in addition to other [...]
Last week: 20 (+0) Record: 3-3 I take schedule into account with these power rankings, which is why I always have the Bills higher than most of higher than their level of talent. They’ve be fortunate enough to be in the AFC East and play their non-divisional games against the AFC South and the NFC [...]
Buffalo Bills (2-3) at Arizona Cardinals (4-1) Last week, I called the Arizona Cardinals one of the worst 4-0 teams ever. With Kevin Kolb as their quarterback, no offensive line, and no running game, last week’s offensive catastrophe was inevitable and I don’t think it’s the last one. There’s a reason I frequently ranked them [...]