Aug 162014

QB Peyton Manning (Denver) Expecting Manning to come close to putting up 55 and 5500 again in 2014 (both records) is very naïve and short-sighted. Manning is now going into his age 38 season, has lost Eric Decker, and last season is simply impossible to repeat. He could still throw up 4800 and 40 (which [...]

Jan 302014

Denver Broncos (15-3) vs Seattle Seahawks (15-3) at MetLife Stadium The big matchup in this game is Denver’s offense vs. Seattle’s defense. Because the media loves hyperbole, the Broncos’ offense is being billed as one of the top offenses of all time, while the Seahawks’ defense is being billed as one of the top defenses [...]

Jan 132014

New England Patriots (13-4) at Denver Broncos (14-3) One of the keys to successful handicapping of NFL games is to figure out which situations certain teams tend to do well in. This is easier when the team has had the same quarterback and/or head coach for a long time. Well we’re in year 13 of [...]

Jan 092014

San Diego Chargers (10-7) at Denver Broncos (13-3) This is one I’m completely torn on. On one hand, the Chargers are in the better spot. The Broncos could be overconfident because they’re at home coming off of a bye. Teams are 14-22 ATS since 2003 as home favorites after a 1st round bye in the post-season, [...]

Dec 262013

Denver Broncos (12-3) at Oakland Raiders (4-11) I really don’t have a good feel for this game. We’re not getting any real line value either way, as this line is exactly where it should be. The Broncos are moving the chains at a ridiculous 80.75% rate, as opposed to 71.94% for their opponents, a differential [...]

Dec 192013

Denver Broncos (11-3) at Houston Texans (2-12) This is another one I’m completely split on. On one hand, the Broncos have no distractions upcoming that would distract them from be able to dominate a lesser opponent here and cover the spread. After this one, they just have to go to Oakland. Teams are 62-40 ATS [...]

Dec 112013

Denver Broncos (11-2) at San Diego Chargers (6-7) Peyton Manning has had some games this season where he didn’t look like a quarterback that was having arguably the best regular season by a quarterback in NFL history, but none of those have been at home. At home this season, he is completing 69.8% of his [...]

Dec 072013

Tennessee Titans (5-7) at Denver Broncos (10-2) Peyton Manning’s struggles in the cold are well documented. If you’ve been reading things about this game on the internet or watching ESPN or NFL Network this week, you might have heard this stat: in games where the game-time temperature  was 32 or below, Peyton Manning is 3-7, [...]

Nov 302013

Last week: 1 (+0) Record: 9-2 The Broncos really slowed down since their incredible start offensively. In his first 5 games, Peyton Manning completed 150 of 196 (76.5%) for 1884 yards (9.61 YPA), 20 touchdowns, and 1 interception. However, in his past 6 games, Peyton Manning has completed 155 of 253 (61.3%) for 1838 yards [...]

Nov 202013

Denver Broncos (9-1) at New England Patriots (7-3) Brady/Manning 14. That has to be some kind of record for non-divisional quarterbacks (I actually don’t know this. If someone does, let me know). This is the greatest quarterback battle in NFL history. What guys like Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck etc. have done in recent [...]

Nov 152013

Last week: 1 (+1) Record: 8-1 Peyton Manning’s ankle is a concern going into the biggest game of their season thus far against the Chiefs (followed by the Patriots, followed by the Chiefs again). However, it’s very good to see that the Broncos are favored by 8 points over the Chiefs. This is the latest [...]

Nov 062013

Denver Broncos (7-1) at San Diego Chargers (4-4) Dominant teams usually play very well off of a bye. Since 2002, road favorites of 3.5 or more are 29-8 ATS since 2002, including 12-1 ATS in a divisional game. This makes sense. Dominant teams are better suited to using an extra week off. Peyton Manning, for [...]

Oct 312013

Last week: 2 (+0) Record: 7-1 Peyton Manning threw 3 interceptions against the Redskins, matching his total from his first 7 games, but that was bound to happen. His level of play from earlier this season was simply unsustainable, even for him. Still, Manning played well and so did the defense, which has been rejuvenated [...]

Oct 262013

Washington Redskins (2-4) at Denver Broncos (6-1) The Broncos lost their first game of the season in Indianapolis last week. The good news is they return home here to play the Washington Redskins in a game in which they should win. The question is, by how much will they win? Fortunately for them, they have [...]

Oct 232013

Last week: 1 (-1) Record: 6-1 Remember when people thought the Broncos were definitely going 16-0 because they looked so dominant for the first 4 weeks. It was clear that was an unsustainable level of offense and that their defense would eventually be exposed. I’m kind of disappointed in myself for moving them up to [...]

Oct 182013

Denver Broncos (6-0) at Indianapolis Colts (4-2) The Broncos have failed to cover in their last 2 instances, barely winning in Dallas and sleepwalking to a 16 point win over the Jaguars at home. However, the odds makers continue boosting the spread on them as if they are some kind of perfect, invulnerable opponent. I [...]