Oct 032015

Minnesota Vikings (2-1) at Denver Broncos (3-0) The Broncos are one of seven 3-0 teams in the league right now, but they only rank 13th in rate of moving the chains differential, worst among undefeated teams. Their defense has been great, improving on a strong 2014 in their first season with Wade Phillips as defensive […]

Jan 082015

Indianapolis Colts (12-5) at Denver Broncos (12-4) Last week was an overall successful weekend. I hit 3 out of 4 plays, including both of my big plays (Baltimore +3 and Carolina -6). The one I missed was the Indianapolis/Cincinnati game, as I made a low confidence pick on Cincinnati. I understood the AJ Green absence […]

Dec 202014

Denver Broncos (11-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (9-4-1) The Bengals had a huge performance in Cleveland last week, winning the first down battle 24-5 against the Browns and moving the chains at a 78.38% rate, as opposed to 35.71% for their opponents. However, they still rank just 17th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving […]

Dec 032014

Buffalo Bills (7-5) at Denver Broncos (9-3) Usually the public is all over favorites, particularly big favorites, because they don’t quite understand the value of the points they’re giving up. The public takes the favorite about 80% of the time or so and it’s a big part of the reason why the public always loses […]

Nov 252014

Denver Broncos (8-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (7-4) The Chiefs lost to the Raiders last week. How are they going to beat the Broncos this week? The public is all over the Broncos as small road favorites here so that’s clearly what they’re thinking. I love fading the public whenever it makes sense as they […]

Nov 082014

Denver Broncos (6-2) at Oakland Raiders (0-8) I’m completely torn on this one. On one hand, the Broncos are in their 2nd straight road game. Teams are 181-184 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.10 points per game, as opposed to 254-364 in their 1st of one road […]

Oct 282014

Denver Broncos (6-1) at New England Patriots (6-2) On the season, the Patriots are just 11th in rate of moving the chains differential, despite their 6-2 record, as they’ve been overly reliant on a +11 turnover margin. They are moving the chains at a 74.91% rate, as opposed to 73.18% for their opponents, a differential […]

Oct 182014

San Francisco 49ers (4-2) at Denver Broncos (4-1) I’m completely torn on this one as there’s conflicting stuff on both sides. On one hand, the Broncos have a big divisional game against the Chargers up next in just 4 days on Thursday Night Football. Teams are 33-55 ATS since 2008 as favorites before Thursday Night […]