Oct 182014

San Francisco 49ers (4-2) at Denver Broncos (4-1) I’m completely torn on this one as there’s conflicting stuff on both sides. On one hand, the Broncos have a big divisional game against the Chargers up next in just 4 days on Thursday Night Football. Teams are 33-55 ATS since 2008 as favorites before Thursday Night [...]

Oct 042014

Arizona Cardinals (3-0) at Denver Broncos (2-1) The Cardinals have been anointed one of the top few teams in the NFL as a result of their 3-0 start. That’s very short-sighted. There always one team that start 3-0 or better and goes on to miss the playoffs. The Dolphins started 3-0 last year. The Cardinals [...]

Sep 202014

Denver Broncos (2-0) at Seattle Seahawks (1-1) The Seahawks are usually at auto-bet at home. Since 2007, the Seahawks are 42-19 at home, including playoffs and they aren’t just having success straight up as they are 41-19-1 ATS. They outscore opponents on average by 7.75 points per game. This is opposed to a 22-40 record [...]

Sep 132014

Kansas City Chiefs (0-1) at Denver Broncos (1-0) The Chiefs had the fewest adjusted games lost last season. Now they’ve already lost two of their best players (Derrick Johnson and Mike DeVito) for the season with torn Achilles. On offense, Dwayne Bowe is back from suspension, but Donald Stephenson remains suspended and now Jeff Allen [...]

Sep 062014

Indianapolis Colts (0-0) at Denver Broncos (0-0) I don’t think we’re getting any line value with either side here. The Broncos are a very good team that deserves to be 7.5 point favorites over the Colts, who aren’t as good as their record has suggested over the past 2 seasons because of their improbable ability [...]

Aug 162014

QB Peyton Manning (Denver) Expecting Manning to come close to putting up 55 and 5500 again in 2014 (both records) is very naïve and short-sighted. Manning is now going into his age 38 season, has lost Eric Decker, and last season is simply impossible to repeat. He could still throw up 4800 and 40 (which [...]

Jan 302014

Denver Broncos (15-3) vs Seattle Seahawks (15-3) at MetLife Stadium The big matchup in this game is Denver’s offense vs. Seattle’s defense. Because the media loves hyperbole, the Broncos’ offense is being billed as one of the top offenses of all time, while the Seahawks’ defense is being billed as one of the top defenses [...]

Jan 132014

New England Patriots (13-4) at Denver Broncos (14-3) One of the keys to successful handicapping of NFL games is to figure out which situations certain teams tend to do well in. This is easier when the team has had the same quarterback and/or head coach for a long time. Well we’re in year 13 of [...]

Jan 092014

San Diego Chargers (10-7) at Denver Broncos (13-3) This is one I’m completely torn on. On one hand, the Chargers are in the better spot. The Broncos could be overconfident because they’re at home coming off of a bye. Teams are 14-22 ATS since 2003 as home favorites after a 1st round bye in the post-season, [...]

Dec 262013

Denver Broncos (12-3) at Oakland Raiders (4-11) I really don’t have a good feel for this game. We’re not getting any real line value either way, as this line is exactly where it should be. The Broncos are moving the chains at a ridiculous 80.75% rate, as opposed to 71.94% for their opponents, a differential [...]

Dec 192013

Denver Broncos (11-3) at Houston Texans (2-12) This is another one I’m completely split on. On one hand, the Broncos have no distractions upcoming that would distract them from be able to dominate a lesser opponent here and cover the spread. After this one, they just have to go to Oakland. Teams are 62-40 ATS [...]

Dec 112013

Denver Broncos (11-2) at San Diego Chargers (6-7) Peyton Manning has had some games this season where he didn’t look like a quarterback that was having arguably the best regular season by a quarterback in NFL history, but none of those have been at home. At home this season, he is completing 69.8% of his [...]

Dec 072013

Tennessee Titans (5-7) at Denver Broncos (10-2) Peyton Manning’s struggles in the cold are well documented. If you’ve been reading things about this game on the internet or watching ESPN or NFL Network this week, you might have heard this stat: in games where the game-time temperature  was 32 or below, Peyton Manning is 3-7, [...]

Nov 302013

Last week: 1 (+0) Record: 9-2 The Broncos really slowed down since their incredible start offensively. In his first 5 games, Peyton Manning completed 150 of 196 (76.5%) for 1884 yards (9.61 YPA), 20 touchdowns, and 1 interception. However, in his past 6 games, Peyton Manning has completed 155 of 253 (61.3%) for 1838 yards [...]

Nov 202013

Denver Broncos (9-1) at New England Patriots (7-3) Brady/Manning 14. That has to be some kind of record for non-divisional quarterbacks (I actually don’t know this. If someone does, let me know). This is the greatest quarterback battle in NFL history. What guys like Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck etc. have done in recent [...]

Nov 152013

Last week: 1 (+1) Record: 8-1 Peyton Manning’s ankle is a concern going into the biggest game of their season thus far against the Chiefs (followed by the Patriots, followed by the Chiefs again). However, it’s very good to see that the Broncos are favored by 8 points over the Chiefs. This is the latest [...]