Nov 252014
 

Denver Broncos (8-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (7-4) The Chiefs lost to the Raiders last week. How are they going to beat the Broncos this week? The public is all over the Broncos as small road favorites here so that’s clearly what they’re thinking. I love fading the public whenever it makes sense as they [...]

Nov 082014
 

Denver Broncos (6-2) at Oakland Raiders (0-8) I’m completely torn on this one. On one hand, the Broncos are in their 2nd straight road game. Teams are 181-184 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.10 points per game, as opposed to 254-364 in their 1st of one road [...]

Oct 282014
 

Denver Broncos (6-1) at New England Patriots (6-2) On the season, the Patriots are just 11th in rate of moving the chains differential, despite their 6-2 record, as they’ve been overly reliant on a +11 turnover margin. They are moving the chains at a 74.91% rate, as opposed to 73.18% for their opponents, a differential [...]

Oct 182014
 

San Francisco 49ers (4-2) at Denver Broncos (4-1) I’m completely torn on this one as there’s conflicting stuff on both sides. On one hand, the Broncos have a big divisional game against the Chargers up next in just 4 days on Thursday Night Football. Teams are 33-55 ATS since 2008 as favorites before Thursday Night [...]

Oct 042014
 

Arizona Cardinals (3-0) at Denver Broncos (2-1) The Cardinals have been anointed one of the top few teams in the NFL as a result of their 3-0 start. That’s very short-sighted. There always one team that start 3-0 or better and goes on to miss the playoffs. The Dolphins started 3-0 last year. The Cardinals [...]

Sep 202014
 

Denver Broncos (2-0) at Seattle Seahawks (1-1) The Seahawks are usually at auto-bet at home. Since 2007, the Seahawks are 42-19 at home, including playoffs and they aren’t just having success straight up as they are 41-19-1 ATS. They outscore opponents on average by 7.75 points per game. This is opposed to a 22-40 record [...]

Sep 132014
 

Kansas City Chiefs (0-1) at Denver Broncos (1-0) The Chiefs had the fewest adjusted games lost last season. Now they’ve already lost two of their best players (Derrick Johnson and Mike DeVito) for the season with torn Achilles. On offense, Dwayne Bowe is back from suspension, but Donald Stephenson remains suspended and now Jeff Allen [...]

Sep 062014
 

Indianapolis Colts (0-0) at Denver Broncos (0-0) I don’t think we’re getting any line value with either side here. The Broncos are a very good team that deserves to be 7.5 point favorites over the Colts, who aren’t as good as their record has suggested over the past 2 seasons because of their improbable ability [...]

Aug 162014
 

QB Peyton Manning (Denver) Expecting Manning to come close to putting up 55 and 5500 again in 2014 (both records) is very naïve and short-sighted. Manning is now going into his age 38 season, has lost Eric Decker, and last season is simply impossible to repeat. He could still throw up 4800 and 40 (which [...]

Jan 302014
 

Denver Broncos (15-3) vs Seattle Seahawks (15-3) at MetLife Stadium The big matchup in this game is Denver’s offense vs. Seattle’s defense. Because the media loves hyperbole, the Broncos’ offense is being billed as one of the top offenses of all time, while the Seahawks’ defense is being billed as one of the top defenses [...]

Jan 132014
 

New England Patriots (13-4) at Denver Broncos (14-3) One of the keys to successful handicapping of NFL games is to figure out which situations certain teams tend to do well in. This is easier when the team has had the same quarterback and/or head coach for a long time. Well we’re in year 13 of [...]

Jan 092014
 

San Diego Chargers (10-7) at Denver Broncos (13-3) This is one I’m completely torn on. On one hand, the Chargers are in the better spot. The Broncos could be overconfident because they’re at home coming off of a bye. Teams are 14-22 ATS since 2003 as home favorites after a 1st round bye in the post-season, [...]

Dec 262013
 

Denver Broncos (12-3) at Oakland Raiders (4-11) I really don’t have a good feel for this game. We’re not getting any real line value either way, as this line is exactly where it should be. The Broncos are moving the chains at a ridiculous 80.75% rate, as opposed to 71.94% for their opponents, a differential [...]

Dec 192013
 

Denver Broncos (11-3) at Houston Texans (2-12) This is another one I’m completely split on. On one hand, the Broncos have no distractions upcoming that would distract them from be able to dominate a lesser opponent here and cover the spread. After this one, they just have to go to Oakland. Teams are 62-40 ATS [...]

Dec 112013
 

Denver Broncos (11-2) at San Diego Chargers (6-7) Peyton Manning has had some games this season where he didn’t look like a quarterback that was having arguably the best regular season by a quarterback in NFL history, but none of those have been at home. At home this season, he is completing 69.8% of his [...]

Dec 072013
 

Tennessee Titans (5-7) at Denver Broncos (10-2) Peyton Manning’s struggles in the cold are well documented. If you’ve been reading things about this game on the internet or watching ESPN or NFL Network this week, you might have heard this stat: in games where the game-time temperature  was 32 or below, Peyton Manning is 3-7, [...]