The great thing about the NFL is that there are so many positions that every year, there is almost always at least one player who has a breakout year on every team, no matter how good or bad the team is. This is one part in a 32 part segment detailing one potential breakout player [...]
Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie has a ton of talent and has definitely flashed in his career. He was the 16th overall pick in 2008 and made the Pro-Bowl in 2009, a year in which he graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 4th rated cornerback. However, he doesn’t always play up to his talent and he has inconsistent effort. He [...]
I didn’t like a lot of moves today. That’s normally how the first day goes. The desperate teams make the big splash moves and don’t get any better as a result and end up cutting him 2 or 3 years into the deal, while the smart teams let things come to them once the buyers [...]
Peyton Manning’s first season with the Broncos and first season back from 4 neck surgeries was amazing. He completed 68.9% of his passes for an average of 8.0 YPA, 37 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions, all above his career averages. His 105.8 QB rating was his best since his record setting 2004 season and the 2nd [...]
Both the Patriots and Broncos are both around 9.5 point favorites against the Texans and Ravens respectively. Both teams blew out their current opponent late in the same season. I took the points with the Texans because I thought the line was too big, but I’m not going to do the same thing here for [...]
It’s 2006 again. Tom Brady and Peyton Manning appear to be on a crash course. Both quarterbacked arguably the best teams in the league (the Broncos and Patriots ranked 2nd and 3rd in the NFL in DVOA, but I don’t trust #1 Seattle on the road). Both are MVP candidates. Peyton Manning is currently viewed [...]
Kansas City Chiefs (2-13) at Denver Broncos (12-3) This is the biggest line of the season, tied with San Francisco/Arizona at -16.5, but unlike that game, this game actually merits a 16.5 point line. This line really can’t be high enough. Kansas City ranks dead last in net points per drive, DVOA, and weighted DVOA, [...]
Last week: 5 (+0) Record: 12-3 Net points per drive: 0.74 (4th) DVOA: 35.3% (2nd) Weighted DVOA: 37.5% (2nd) Studs QB Peyton Manning: 30 of 43 for 339 yards, 3 touchdowns, 1 interception, 2 drops, 1 hit as thrown, 1 throw away, 1 batted pass, 97.4 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 6 of 43 drop [...]
Cleveland Browns (5-9) at Denver Broncos (11-3) Before last week, the Browns hadn’t really gotten blown out all year. They had been competitive in every other game. They only have 3 other losses by more than a touchdown. One of those, a 14 point loss in New York against the Giants, was a lot closer [...]
Denver Broncos (10-3) at Baltimore Ravens (9-4) Before losing to the Steelers at home a few weeks ago, the Ravens had ripped off 16 straight home wins, dating back to 2010. Given that, it’s kind of weird to see them as home dogs here. It’s also kind of funny to see how far this team [...]
Last week: 5 (+0) Record: 10-3 Net points per drive: 0.65 (4th) DVOA: 35.5% (3rd) Weighted DVOA: 37.9% (3rd) The Broncos are on an 8 game winning streak, but the Patriots control their own destiny for the #2 seed and if they beat the 49ers this weekend and I think they will win that one. [...]
Last week: 5 (+0) Record: 9-3 Net points per drive: 0.62 (5th) DVOA: 37.0% (2nd) Weighted DVOA: 38.1% (2nd) Studs C Dan Koppen: Did not allow a pressure on 43 pass block snaps, run blocked for 32 yards on 8 attempts LG Zane Beadles: Did not allow a pressure on 43 pass block snaps, run [...]
Denver Broncos (9-3) at Oakland Raiders (3-9) The Raiders actually gave a little bit of effort last week. They still lost at home to the previously 3-8 Browns in a game they trailed throughout, but that was sadly a big step up from where they were the week before. In their 3 games prior, they [...]
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-5) at Denver Broncos (8-3) The Buccaneers lost last week, snapping a 4 game winning streak, but it was once again a close game. The Buccaneers are still 5-2 since the bye and they’ve really looked like a different team since then. Josh Freeman is 134 of 220 for 1971 yards, 16 [...]
Last week: 6 (+2) Record: 8-3 Net points per drive: 0.66 (4th) DVOA: 35.0% (3rd) Weighted DVOA: 36.1% (3rd) Tier 1: Contenders Studs LG Zane Beadles: Did not allow a pressure on 40 pass block snaps, run blocked for 21 yards on 4 attempts, 1 penalty CB Champ Bailey: Allowed 4 catches for 33 yards [...]
Denver Broncos (7-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-9) There are two trends that apply to this game, but both of them can be neutralized by the fact that this matchup is divisional. Home dogs are 57-40 ATS off a loss as home dogs since 2002, but that only 13-10 ATS as divisional home dogs after [...]
Last week: 5 (-1) Record: 7-3 Right now, this is one of 6 upper echelon teams right now. They could be higher, but I’m putting Atlanta ahead of them because they won head-to-head and have a 2 game better record than them, but I think if these teams were to have a rematch this week, [...]
San Diego Chargers (4-5) at Denver Broncos (6-3) In my Power Rankings this week I joked, “Why does it feel like the Chargers are going to lose to Denver, fall to 4-6, and then go on their annual late season run, finish 8-8 or 9-7, miss the playoffs barely, and save Norv Turner’s and AJ [...]
Last week: 5 (+0) Record: 6-3 It’s weird to say, but Tracy Porter getting sick was the turning point for their season. Obviously, I wish the best for Porter in his recovery from him mysterious illness, but as well as Peyton Manning is playing, they wouldn’t be a complete team if it weren’t for Chris [...]
Denver Broncos (5-3) at Carolina Panthers (2-6) The Broncos sit at 5-3 and rank 2nd in yards per play differential and 9th in rate of sustaining drives differential with momentum on their side and they’ve done this despite one of the toughest schedules in the league thus far. From this point on, they have one of the [...]
Last week: 5 (+0) Record: 5-3 The Broncos sit at 5-3 and rank 2nd in yards per play differential and 9th in rate of sustaining drives differential with momentum on their side and they’ve done this despite one of the toughest schedules in the league thus far. From this point on, they have one of [...]
Denver Broncos (4-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-4) The Broncos rank 2nd in the league in yards per play differential at 1.4, just .1 behind San Francisco, who has looked untouchable for weeks in that category. No one else is above 0.7. They rank just 9th in rate of sustaining drives differential, thanks to a 3rd down defense that’s [...]
Last week: 9 (+3) Record: 4-3 The Broncos rank 2nd in the league in yards per play differential at 1.4, just .1 behind San Francisco, who has looked untouchable for weeks in that category. No one else is above 0.7. They rank just 9th in rate of sustaining drives differential, thanks to a 3rd down [...]
New Orleans Saints (2-4) at Denver Broncos (3-3) Drew Brees looks like Drew Brees again. He struggled, by his standards, in his first few games out of the gate, but you had to figure that eventually he’d get it together, even without Sean Payton, because he’s just too talented. In his last 3 games, he’s [...]
Last week: 9 (+0) Record: 3-3 On bye.