I thought Desmond Bryant was an underrated free agent going into the off-season. Bryant played well for the Raiders on 645 snaps last year, taking over as a starter week 10 after Richard Seymour got hurt and grading out as ProFootballFocus’ #7 defensive tackle, excelling as a pass rusher and holding his own against the [...]
Paul Kruger was a very productive pass rusher down the stretch for the Ravens last year with 14 sacks, 14 hits, and 33 hurries in his final 12 games from week 10 on, but he didn’t really do anything until Terrell Suggs came back and had just 1 sack, 3 hits, and 10 hurries in [...]
4-3 to 3-4 Atlanta Falcons This one isn’t confirmed, but Falcons’ defensive coordinator Mike Nolan is a 3-4 guy. He did a great job in his first season with the Falcons, coaching them to a top-5 scoring defense, despite having to run a 4-3, because he wisely realized they didn’t have the personnel for an [...]
The Browns have played in just 1 playoff game since 1994 (they were deactivated for 3 years in that stretch, but still). Lack of continuity continues to be an issue for them and it won’t get any better for them next season. They have a new owner who has brought in a new GM and [...]
Cleveland Browns (5-10) at Pittsburgh Steelers (7-8) Aside from this being a divisional matchup, this is a completely meaningless game for these two teams. Both are out of the playoffs. I have a rule against making significant plays on completely meaningless games. If the teams might not care about a game, I shouldn’t either. There’s just [...]
Last week: 26 (+0) Record: 5-10 Net points per drive: -0.21 (22nd) DVOA: -12.8% (23rd) Weighted DVOA: -8.2% (22nd) Studs SS Eric Hagg: Did not allow a catch on 3 attempts, 1 solo tackle, 1 missed tackle Duds QB Colt McCoy: 9 of 17 for 79 yards and a touchdown, 1 hit as thrown, 68.6 [...]
Cleveland Browns (5-9) at Denver Broncos (11-3) Before last week, the Browns hadn’t really gotten blown out all year. They had been competitive in every other game. They only have 3 other losses by more than a touchdown. One of those, a 14 point loss in New York against the Giants, was a lot closer [...]
Last week: 26 (+0) Record: 5-9 Net points per drive: -0.11 (20th) DVOA: -12.4% (25th) Weighted DVOA: -5.5% (19th) That 17 point loss to the Redskins was actually the first time this season the Browns had been blown out. Their previous biggest loss was 14 and their biggest win (23) is still bigger than their [...]
Washington Redskins (7-6) at Cleveland Browns (5-8) Robert Griffin is expected to be a true game time decision for this one and we won’t know for sure about his status until tomorrow morning. Lines are slowly starting to trickle in spite of this and if you had to ask me, I’d said it’s more likely [...]
Last week: 25 (-1) Record: 5-8 Net points per drive: -0.03 (16th) DVOA: -10.3% (25th) Weighted DVOA: -6.5% (20th) Cleveland’s been better than their record all season and they’re finally catching up with 3 straight wins against the Charlie Batch led Steelers, the Raiders, and the Chiefs. However, the Redskins, the Broncos, and the Ben [...]
Kansas City Chiefs (2-10) at Cleveland Browns (4-8) One of the most powerful trends is known as the six and six trend. It says that teams who finish 6-10 or worse are 23-64 ATS against the spread since 2002 as favorites of 6 or more. That makes sense. Bad teams like that don’t deserve to [...]
Last week: 24 (-1) Record: 4-8 Net points per drive: -0.15 (20th) DVOA: -13.6% (26th) Weighted DVOA: -10.0% (24th) Studs LT Joe Thomas: Allowed 1 quarterback hit on 38 pass block snaps WR Josh Gordon: Caught 6 passes for 116 yards and a touchdown on 7 attempts on 35 pass snaps, 5.7 YAC per catch, [...]
Cleveland Browns (3-8) at Oakland Raiders (3-8) The Raiders seem to have completely quit. They’ve lost 4 straight by a combined score of 169-79. Reports out of their practices aren’t pretty either as middle linebacker Rolando McClain, actually one of their better defensive players, has been suspended for 2 games for conduct detrimental to the [...]
Last week: 24 (+4) Record: 3-8 Net points per drive: -0.19 (22nd) DVOA: -13.1% (25th) Weighted DVOA: -11.4% (25th) Tier 6: Not going to make the playoffs, but they can pull some upsets down the stretch Cleveland Studs LT Joe Thomas: Did not allow a pressure on 34 pass block snaps, run blocked for -3 [...]
Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4) at Cleveland Browns (2-8) Charlie Batch will start this one for the Steelers. He should have started against the Ravens to begin with. He’s always been a solid backup quarterback who can win games when Ben Roethlisberger is hurt (5-2 SU and 5-2 ATS since joining the Steelers). I think he’s a [...]
Last week: 28 (+0) Record: 2-8 The Browns haven’t been run out of the building by anyone this year. They’ve only lost one game by more than 10 this year and at was a game that was closer than the final score and one in which they led by 14 early. So that’s encouraging. However, [...]
Cleveland Browns (2-7) at Dallas Cowboys (4-5) As many of you who read these picks regularly know, I love using yards per play differential and rate of sustaining drives differential to compute real line. Yards per play differential measures how well a team does on an average play (offensive or defensive) and overrates teams that [...]
Last week: 28 (+0) Record: 2-7 On bye.
Last week: 28 (+0) Record: 2-7 Once again the Browns played a team close and came up short this week. Against Baltimore, they actually scored more frequently than the Ravens, scoring 5 field goals, which Baltimore just scored 4 times, though they got 3 touchdowns and a field goal. The Browns imploded once they got [...]
Baltimore Ravens (5-2) at Cleveland Browns (2-6) Road favorites are 42-15 ATS off a bye. That makes sense. Road favorites tend to be very good teams and very good teams tend to be extra focused with a week off. The Browns kind of got screwed over by the schedulers because they have two straight games [...]
Last week: 29 (+1) Record: 2-6 The Browns remain better than their record. At 2-6, they rank 25th in the league in yards per play differential and 28th in rate of sustaining drives differential. They’ve only lost one game by more than a touchdown and that was against the Giants in New York in a [...]
San Diego Chargers (3-3) at Cleveland Browns (1-6) I normally hate taking teams that are heavily publicly backed, but that’s exactly what I’m doing by taking the Chargers this week. I’m also taking a West Coast team on the road in the Eastern Time Zone at 1 PM, a situation that is normally bad for [...]
Last week: 31 (+2) Record: 1-6 Despite their loss, the Browns move up. Last week, I mentioned I consdered putting the Browns ahead of the rest of the 1 win teams and some of the 2 win teams because they’ve been competitive in every game despite their record (worst in the league at 1-6). This [...]
Pittsburgh Steelers (2-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-3) What is wrong with the Steelers? After their recent loss in Tennessee, that’s all anyone can ask. Well, the problem is twofold. The first reason is that they just suck on the road as favorites outside of the division. They won 12 games last year and still barely [...]
Cleveland Browns (1-5) at Indianapolis Colts (2-3) Indianapolis is in a tough spot this week as favorites before being dogs and after losing as dogs. Teams are 54-78 ATS in that spot since 2008. Last week, they lost 35-9 to the Jets as 3.5 point dogs and next week they travel to Tennessee, where they [...]