Oct 032015

Carolina Panthers (3-0) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-2) Typically, the better team not only prevails but also covers when they don’t have any distractions on the horizon and the Panthers are in a good situation as a result, as they are 3.5 point road favorites in Tampa Bay this week, ahead of their week 5 […]

Sep 262015

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-1) at Houston Texans (0-2) Ordinarily, I love fading significant week-to-week line movements because they tend to be overreactions to one week. For example, the Buccaneers were 8.5 point underdogs in this game in the early line last week, but now they’re only getting 6.5 points, as a result of an upset […]

Sep 122015

Tennessee Titans (0-0) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-0) These two teams are in very similar situations. Both were awful last season, as both went 2-14. Subsequently, they had the #1 (Tampa Bay) and #2 (Tennessee) overall picks in the draft. Both teams, as so many terrible teams before them have, drafted quarterbacks atop the draft. […]

Apr 032015

Trade for Tampa Bay: Goldson topped my list of cap casualty candidates for the Buccaneers. In fact, I was confused why he wasn’t cut earlier in the off-season, a move that would have saved the Buccaneers 4 million in cash and cap space. The Buccaneers signed Goldson to a 5-year, 41.25 million dollar contract 2 […]

Dec 232014

New Orleans Saints (6-9) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-13) The Saints were eliminated from the playoffs last week with their 5th straight home loss, a loss to Atlanta which dropped them to 6-9 on the season. However, they’ve played well enough this season to suggest that if they played an infinite amount of 16 game […]

Dec 182014

Green Bay Packers (10-4) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-12) The Packers haven’t been nearly the same team on the road this season. That was evident last week in a loss in Buffalo and it’s been evident all year as they’ve beaten just one team by more than 4 points on the road all season, relevant […]

Nov 282014

Cincinnati Bengals (7-3-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-9) At first glance, the Buccaneers are in a terrible spot. After this game, they have to go to Detroit, where they could easily be double digit underdogs. The early line was 9, but after Detroit looked good on national TV on Thanksgiving that line could be pushed […]

Nov 152014

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-8) at Washington Redskins (3-6) The Redskins stand at 3-6, but they are still favored by 7.5 points here over the Buccaneers. They’re almost definitely going to finish 6-10 or worse and teams that finish that badly almost never cover as a favorite of 6 or more, doing so only about 25% […]

Nov 082014

Atlanta Falcons (2-6) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-7) The Falcons are coming off of a bye in this game. One of the more powerful trends says that road favorites dominant off of a bye, going 50-21 ATS since 2002, including 24-6 ATS in divisional matchups, like this one here. It makes sense as road favorites […]

Oct 212014

Minnesota Vikings (2-5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-5) Last week, the Vikings lost in Buffalo on a last second touchdown. However, it was still only a one point loss. I like the Vikings’ chances of actually getting the win here this week a good amount for several reasons. One, they’re playing an inferior opponent as […]

Oct 112014

Baltimore Ravens (3-2) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-4) The Ravens have been very good at home over the past few seasons, since 2008 when Joe Flacco and John Harbaugh came to town. However, they haven’t been as good on the road.  Since 2008, the Ravens are 43-10 at home, outscoring opponents by an average of […]

Sep 232014

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1) The Buccaneers were blown out in Atlanta last week 56-14. A similar thing should happen this week in Pittsburgh right? Not necessarily. Teams are 45-24 ATS since 2002 coming off of 35+ point losses. Teams tend to be undervalued, overlooked, and embarrassed in that situation and the […]

Sep 182014

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-2) at Atlanta Falcons (1-1) The Falcons looked pretty good week 1 against the Saints, but they fell flat on their face in Cincinnati last week. However, I expect them to bounce back here for three reasons. One, Jake Matthews is back from injury and will take over again on the blindside. […]

Sep 132014

St. Louis Rams (0-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-1) The Buccaneers are in a bad spot here with a Thursday Night game against the Falcons on deck. Teams are 14-30 ATS since 2008 as favorites before a divisional Thursday Night game. I also think we’re getting some line value with the Rams. The Buccaneers aren’t […]