Oct 092016

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-3) at Carolina Panthers (1-3) Both of these two teams enter this game incredibly banged up. The Buccaneers are missing their two top running backs (Doug Martin and Charles Sims), their top two defensive linemen (Gerald McCoy and Robert Ayers), and starting defensive tackle Clinton McDonald. The Panthers, meanwhile, are missing starting […]

Oct 012016

Denver Broncos (3-0) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-2) One of my favorite things to do as a bettor is go against significant week-to-week line movements. In this game, the Buccaneers were 1.5 point home underdogs last week on the early line, but now are 3 point home underdogs. That’s significant because 1 in 6 games […]

Sep 172016

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-0) at Arizona Cardinals (0-1) The Cardinals lost in upset fashion to the Patriots last week, but could have easily won that game if they hadn’t missed a 47-yard field goal at the end of the game. They actually slightly outplayed the Patriots, moving the chains at a 80.00% rate, as opposed […]

Jan 022016

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-9) at Carolina Panthers (14-1) The Panthers’ undefeated season attempt ended with last week’s road loss in Atlanta, but that doesn’t mean that the Panthers are going take it easy in their final regular season game this week. In fact, it likely means the opposite because now their week 17 game is […]

Dec 242015

Chicago Bears (5-9) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-8) This line suggests that these two teams are even and that the Buccaneers have a standard homefield advantage, as the Buccaneers are favored by a field goal at home. I don’t agree with either of those. The Buccaneers are just 18-36 ATS at home since 2009 and […]

Dec 162015

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-7) at St. Louis Rams (5-8) Ordinarily, non-divisional home favorites do really well on Thursday nights, going 26-13 ATS since 2002. It makes sense. It’s tough for a team to face an unfamiliar and superior opponent on a short week on the road. The Rams are non-divisional home favorites on Thursday night […]

Dec 122015

New Orleans Saints (4-8) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-6) The Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat the Saints 26-19 as 10 point underdogs in New Orleans earlier this year. However, there are two reasons why the Saints could easily get revenge. For one, they’re in a great spot as divisional road underdogs are 54-31 ATS in a […]

Nov 282015

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-5) at Indianapolis Colts (5-5) Matt Hasselbeck is 3-0 as the Colts’ starter and the Colts have moved the chains at a 72.04% rate in his 3 starts, as opposed to 69.66% in Andrew Luck’s 7 starts. Certainly getting Luck back healthy for the stretch run and playoffs is very important because, […]

Nov 212015

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (4-5) The Eagles are only favored by 6 points here over the Buccaneers this week, after being favored by 8 points in the early line last week. I think that’s too low, as the Eagles rank 7th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Buccaneers rank […]

Oct 312015

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-4) at Atlanta Falcons (6-1) The Falcons aren’t quite as good as their 6-1 record, as evidenced by their recent road loss in New Orleans and mere 3 point victory in Tennessee against a Titans team that was playing without Marcus Mariota. However, they still rank 7th in rate of moving the […]

Oct 242015

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-3) at Washington Redskins (2-4) The Redskins are going into a bye here, but that’s not a good thing, as counterintuitive as that might seem. Big home favorites (6+) typically do very well before a bye (59-20 ATS since 2002), but, for whatever reason, small home favorites like the Redskins are here […]

Oct 102015

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-3) The Buccaneers are going into a bye here, but that’s not a good thing, as counterintuitive as that might seem. Big home favorites (6+) typically do very well before a bye (59-19 ATS since 2002), but, for whatever reason, small home favorites like the Buccaneers are here […]

Oct 032015

Carolina Panthers (3-0) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-2) Typically, the better team not only prevails but also covers when they don’t have any distractions on the horizon and the Panthers are in a good situation as a result, as they are 3.5 point road favorites in Tampa Bay this week, ahead of their week 5 […]

Sep 262015

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-1) at Houston Texans (0-2) Ordinarily, I love fading significant week-to-week line movements because they tend to be overreactions to one week. For example, the Buccaneers were 8.5 point underdogs in this game in the early line last week, but now they’re only getting 6.5 points, as a result of an upset […]

Sep 122015

Tennessee Titans (0-0) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-0) These two teams are in very similar situations. Both were awful last season, as both went 2-14. Subsequently, they had the #1 (Tampa Bay) and #2 (Tennessee) overall picks in the draft. Both teams, as so many terrible teams before them have, drafted quarterbacks atop the draft. […]