Dec 102016

New Orleans Saints (5-7) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-6) The Saints are just 5-7, but enter this game 5th in first down rate differential. That’s because, on the season, the Saints have 39 more first downs than their opponents (the 2nd best differential in the league) and 10 more offensive touchdowns than their opponents (tied […]

Dec 032016

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-5) at San Diego Chargers (5-6) The Buccaneers got an impressive home victory over the Seahawks last week, but teams tend not to cover coming off of a home upset victory, going 60-80 ATS the following week since 2012. Teams tend to be overrated off of a home upset victory, as they […]

Nov 262016

Seattle Seahawks (7-2-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-5) The Seahawks have always done very well in the second half of the regular season in the Pete Carroll era (since 2011), going 32-9-1 ATS in games 9-16 since Carroll arrived (including 2-0 ATS so far this season). This has been very noticeable on the stat sheet […]

Nov 192016

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (7-2) Much is being made of the fact that the Chiefs have won 17 of their last 19 regular season games, winning their final 10 regular season games in 2015 and starting this season 7-2. That’s impressive, but the Chiefs have won their last 2 games despite […]

Oct 282016

Oakland Raiders (5-2) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-3) The Raiders were one of my underrated teams coming into the season but, despite a 5-2 start, I’ve been very disappointed with them. Their record is misleading as their point differential is just +6 and they rank just 27th in first down percentage differential. Their offense, which […]

Oct 092016

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-3) at Carolina Panthers (1-3) Both of these two teams enter this game incredibly banged up. The Buccaneers are missing their two top running backs (Doug Martin and Charles Sims), their top two defensive linemen (Gerald McCoy and Robert Ayers), and starting defensive tackle Clinton McDonald. The Panthers, meanwhile, are missing starting […]

Oct 012016

Denver Broncos (3-0) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-2) One of my favorite things to do as a bettor is go against significant week-to-week line movements. In this game, the Buccaneers were 1.5 point home underdogs last week on the early line, but now are 3 point home underdogs. That’s significant because 1 in 6 games […]

Sep 172016

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-0) at Arizona Cardinals (0-1) The Cardinals lost in upset fashion to the Patriots last week, but could have easily won that game if they hadn’t missed a 47-yard field goal at the end of the game. They actually slightly outplayed the Patriots, moving the chains at a 80.00% rate, as opposed […]

Jan 022016

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-9) at Carolina Panthers (14-1) The Panthers’ undefeated season attempt ended with last week’s road loss in Atlanta, but that doesn’t mean that the Panthers are going take it easy in their final regular season game this week. In fact, it likely means the opposite because now their week 17 game is […]

Dec 242015

Chicago Bears (5-9) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-8) This line suggests that these two teams are even and that the Buccaneers have a standard homefield advantage, as the Buccaneers are favored by a field goal at home. I don’t agree with either of those. The Buccaneers are just 18-36 ATS at home since 2009 and […]

Dec 162015

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-7) at St. Louis Rams (5-8) Ordinarily, non-divisional home favorites do really well on Thursday nights, going 26-13 ATS since 2002. It makes sense. It’s tough for a team to face an unfamiliar and superior opponent on a short week on the road. The Rams are non-divisional home favorites on Thursday night […]

Dec 122015

New Orleans Saints (4-8) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-6) The Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat the Saints 26-19 as 10 point underdogs in New Orleans earlier this year. However, there are two reasons why the Saints could easily get revenge. For one, they’re in a great spot as divisional road underdogs are 54-31 ATS in a […]

Nov 282015

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-5) at Indianapolis Colts (5-5) Matt Hasselbeck is 3-0 as the Colts’ starter and the Colts have moved the chains at a 72.04% rate in his 3 starts, as opposed to 69.66% in Andrew Luck’s 7 starts. Certainly getting Luck back healthy for the stretch run and playoffs is very important because, […]

Nov 212015

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (4-5) The Eagles are only favored by 6 points here over the Buccaneers this week, after being favored by 8 points in the early line last week. I think that’s too low, as the Eagles rank 7th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Buccaneers rank […]