Sep 212013

Buffalo Bills (1-1) at New York Jets (1-1)

It’s really early, but the Jets have the best defense in the NFL, by far, in terms of preventing their opponent from moving the chains. They’ve allowed just 51.2% of first and 10s to be converted for a subsequent first down. Getting Tampa Bay week 1 and then a Thursday Night Game in the rain week 2 definitely helps, but you have to be impressed with how their defense played against the Patriots last week, even if Tom Brady was working with arguably the worst receiving corps of his career that night. Nose tackle Damon Harrison and middle linebacker Demario Davis have been breakout stars through 2 weeks.

The Bills have also done some impressive things this season and I don’t think either of these teams are quite as bad as we expected them to be before the season, but I like the fact that we’re getting the Jets as very short favorites at home. They aren’t moving the chains offensively, converting 62.7% of 1st and 10s for a subsequent first down, but because of how well they are doing defensively, they ranked 3rd in the NFL in that differential in this early season. The Bills, meanwhile, rank 24th. The Jets also have an extended week to recover and game plan for the Bills, coming off Thursday Night Football. There’s a very good chance the Jets hold the Bills to close to single digits and win an ugly one.

New York Jets 16 Buffalo Bills 9

Pick against spread: NY Jets -1.5

Confidence: Low

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