Dec 192015

Buffalo Bills (6-7) at Washington Redskins (6-7)

The Bills are in a good spot here this week, hosting the Cowboys next week, while the Redskins have a key divisional matchup in Philadelphia, which could decide the division. All games are important for the Redskins going forward, as they’re currently locked in a 3-way tie atop the division, but next week’s game is even more important because a win isn’t just a win for them, it’s also a loss for the Eagles and it wins the Redskins the tiebreaker between them and the Eagles, because they’ll own the season series. Teams are 92-65 ATS since 2012 as road favorites (the Bills are favored by 2 in Washington this week) before being favored again, if their opponent will be underdogs again the following week. All other road favorites are 71-95 ATS over that time period.

However, the Bills do not deserve to be 2 point road favorites here in Washington. This line doesn’t make any sense. These teams rank 19th (Washington) and 20th (Buffalo) in rate of moving the chains differential, so they’re comparably talented, and the Bills are more banged up, missing tight end Charles Clay, middle linebacker Nigel Bradham, and cornerback Stephon Gilmore, while the Redskins are relatively healthy. The Redskins should be favored by 3 points, if not 3.5, here at home and yet they’re underdogs. That’s not enough for me to put money on the Redskins, but they’re my pick here and if this line moves up to a field goal, I’d consider bumping this pick up to a higher confidence bracket.

Update: The line has moved up to 3. I’m moving this up to medium. There’s no reason a banged up Bills team should be favored by a touchdown in Washington.

Washington Redskins 20 Buffalo Bills 17 Upset Pick +125

Pick against the spread: Washington +3

Confidence: Low

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