Dec 032016

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-5) at San Diego Chargers (5-6) The Buccaneers got an impressive home victory over the Seahawks last week, but teams tend not to cover coming off of a home upset victory, going 60-80 ATS the following week since 2012. Teams tend to be overrated off of a home upset victory, as they […]

Nov 262016

San Diego Chargers (4-6) at Houston Texans (6-4) The Chargers are just 4-6, but they’ve been significantly better than their record this season. All 6 of their losses came by 8 points or fewer, so they’ve been competitive in every game. Their +14 point differential is solid and they rank 7th in first down rate […]

Nov 122016

Miami Dolphins (4-4) at San Diego Chargers (4-5) The Chargers have been one of the most banged up teams in the league in each of the last two seasons. This season, the Chargers have been missing wide receiver Steve Johnson, running back Danny Woodhead, wide receiver Keenan Allen, middle linebacker Manti Te’o, and cornerback Jason […]

Nov 052016

Tennessee Titans (4-4) at San Diego Chargers (3-5) The Titans may be just 4-4, but they actually rank 5th in the NFL in first down percentage differential. They’ve been competitive in every game and have a -1 point differential on the season, despite being -5 in return touchdown differential. Aside from those 5 plays, they […]

Oct 222016

San Diego Chargers (2-4) at Atlanta Falcons (4-2) I’m torn on this one. On one hand, the Chargers are in a tough spot. Because of a weird scheduling quirk, this road game against the Falcons is wedged between two meetings in a three week period with division rival Denver on San Diego’s schedule. The Chargers […]

Sep 242016

San Diego Chargers (1-1) at Indianapolis Colts (0-2) The Chargers’ offense continues to be bitten by the injury bug. After finishing last season with the 8th most adjusted games lost to injury of any offense in the league, the Chargers lost #1 wide receiver Keenan Allen for the season week 1 and running back Danny […]

Sep 172016

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1) at San Diego Chargers (0-1) Before the season started, the Chargers were one of the teams I expected to have a significant jump in wins this season, after winning just 4 in 2015. That theory was based on the assumptions that the Chargers would have better luck both in winning close games […]

Nov 282015

San Diego Chargers (2-8) at Jacksonville Jaguars (4-6) The Chargers’ 2-8 record is tied for the worst in the NFL, but they have played better than their record. Their defense has been horrendous, ranking 29th in rate of moving the chains allowed, but their offense ranks 5th, as quarterback Philip Rivers has played very well […]

Nov 212015

Kansas City Chiefs (4-5) at San Diego Chargers (2-7) The Chargers had their bye last week and it came at a perfect time, as it allowed them to get much healthier. Left tackle King Dunlap, left guard Orlando Franklin, tight end Antonio Gates, and safety Eric Weddle, all of whom have missed significant time with […]

Nov 072015

Chicago Bears (2-5) at San Diego Chargers (2-6) These two teams both only have 2 wins, but the Chargers are significantly better. While the Bears rank 26th in rate of moving the chains differential, the Chargers rank 7th. Obviously that seems weird given their record, but they actually lead the league in yards per game […]