Jan 092014

San Diego Chargers (10-7) at Denver Broncos (13-3) This is one I’m completely torn on. On one hand, the Chargers are in the better spot. The Broncos could be overconfident because they’re at home coming off of a bye. Teams are 14-22 ATS since 2003 as home favorites after a 1st round bye in the post-season, [...]

Jan 022014

San Diego Chargers (9-7) at Cincinnati Bengals (11-5) The Chargers kind of tripped backwards into the playoffs. That sounds weird to say about a team that had to win 4 straight games, including one in Denver, just to get to this point, but they could have easily lost to Kansas City’s backups week 17. The [...]

Dec 112013

Denver Broncos (11-2) at San Diego Chargers (6-7) Peyton Manning has had some games this season where he didn’t look like a quarterback that was having arguably the best regular season by a quarterback in NFL history, but none of those have been at home. At home this season, he is completing 69.8% of his [...]

Dec 072013

New York Giants (5-7) at San Diego Chargers (5-7) The Chargers are in an incredibly tough situation this week because they have to face the Broncos a few days after this one in Denver on Thursday Night Football. That is undoubtedly the biggest game of their season. They’ll obviously not want to overlook the Giants [...]

Nov 272013

Cincinnati Bengals (7-4) at San Diego Chargers (5-6) I’m pretty torn on this one. On one hand, the Chargers could be completely flat off of last week’s insane last second win in Kansas City. Favorites generally struggle off of close road wins as underdogs, going 27-51 ATS off of a win by 3 or fewer [...]

Nov 212013

San Diego Chargers (4-6) at Kansas City Chiefs (9-1) I’ve maintained all along that the Chiefs are not as good as their record. Going into last week’s game, they had the NFL’s easiest schedule according to DVOA, which doesn’t even take into account all of the backup quarterbacks they faced. However, despite that, they were [...]

Nov 062013

Denver Broncos (7-1) at San Diego Chargers (4-4) Dominant teams usually play very well off of a bye. Since 2002, road favorites of 3.5 or more are 29-8 ATS since 2002, including 12-1 ATS in a divisional game. This makes sense. Dominant teams are better suited to using an extra week off. Peyton Manning, for [...]

Nov 022013

San Diego Chargers (4-3) at Washington Redskins (2-5) One of the most powerful trends in the NFL says that road favorites dominate off of a bye, going 45-18 ATS since 2002. It makes sense. Road favorites are significantly superior teams and significantly superior teams tend to use the extra week very well and dominate their [...]

Oct 172013

San Diego Chargers (3-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-6) What an accomplishment for the Jacksonville Jaguars! They covered the spread last week for the first time and this season, only losing to the Broncos by a mere 16 points. In all seriousness, the Jaguars could be kind of flat after putting everything they had into that [...]

Oct 162013

Last week: 23 (+2) Record: 3-3 I wasn’t shocked about the Chargers’ win over the Colts. The Colts were in an obvious trap game spot between a home upset win over the Seahawks and an impending battle with former quarterback Peyton Manning and the undefeated Broncos. The Chargers have a great offense that moves the [...]