Nov 252015
 

Chicago Bears (4-6) at Green Bay Packers (7-3)

The Packers lost to the lowly Lions in their last home game, but they’ve generally had a ton of success at Lambeau recently. As long as Aaron Rodgers starts (minus any games he’s been knocked out very early with injuries), the Packers are 30-13-1 ATS at home since 2010 and 39-5 straight up, with an absurd +608 point differential, meaning they outscore opponents, on average, by 13.82 points per game. That homefield advantage seems to be priced into this line though, as the Packers are favored by 9 (up from 7 a week ago), despite the fact that they rank 9th in rate of moving the chains differential and the Bears rank 19th.

The Bears have also been better offensively with Jay Cutler healthy (72.62% rate of moving the chains differential in the 8 games he’s been healthy, 56.25% rate in their other 2 games) and are getting Matt Forte and Alshon Jeffery back from injury this week. Tight end Martellus Bennett, wide receiver Eddie Royal, and possibly safety Antrel Rolle are out with injury, but the Bears are still healthier than they’ve been for most of this season. The Packers are pretty healthy too, but could be without center Corey Linsley on a short week and haven’t been as good offensively all season without top receiver Jordy Nelson, who tore his ACL in the pre-season. They are a great home team, but are far from a lock to blow out a decent Bears team.

The Packers are in a good spot, with a trip to Detroit on deck. Teams are 109-85 ATS before being 3+ point road favorites since 2012 and 71-50 ATS before being 4+ point road favorites over that same time period. However, so are the Bears, who host the 49ers next week. Underdogs of 6+ are 146-97 ATS before being 6+ point favorites since 1989. Lines can change so neither team is a lock to be in the spot I mentioned, but, either way, the logic holds. Both teams are have easy games on deck and should be very focused for this game. I’m taking the Packers by default at home, but I can’t put money on them unless this line goes back down to 7.

Green Bay Packers 31 Chicago Bears 20

Pick against the spread: Green Bay -9

Confidence: Low

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