Dec 132014
 

Oakland Raiders (2-11) at Kansas City Chiefs (7-6) The Raiders pulled the improbable upset over the 49ers last week as 8 point home underdogs and they did so in convincing fashion, but we’re still getting line value with the Chiefs as 10 only point home favorites here. The Raiders still rank dead last in rate [...]

Dec 052014
 

Kansas City Chiefs (7-5) at Arizona Cardinals (9-3) The wheels are starting to fall off for the Arizona Cardinals. They have lost 2 straight by double digits in Seattle and Atlanta and they have one offensive touchdown in their last 11 quarters. I’ve said all season that this team had not been playing as well [...]

Nov 252014
 

Denver Broncos (8-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (7-4) The Chiefs lost to the Raiders last week. How are they going to beat the Broncos this week? The public is all over the Broncos as small road favorites here so that’s clearly what they’re thinking. I love fading the public whenever it makes sense as they [...]

Nov 182014
 

Kansas City Chiefs (7-3) at Oakland Raiders (0-10) The Chiefs beat the Seahawks last week, but this line still doesn’t reflect how good they are. They rank 2nd in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 77.45% rate, as opposed to 71.38% for their opponents, a differential of 6.07%. It makes [...]

Sep 272014
 

New England Patriots (2-1) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-2) This is another game where there’s been significant line movement as the Patriots were 6.5 point favorites last week in this game and now they’re 3.5 point favorites, after the Patriots barely beat the Raiders in New England and the Chiefs won big time as underdogs [...]

Sep 202014
 

Kansas City Chiefs (0-2) at Miami Dolphins (1-1) One of my favorites trends involves road underdogs off of a road loss. Teams are 101-67 ATS in that situation since 2008, including 86-45 ATS when it’s their 2nd straight road game and they next play a home game. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate [...]

Sep 132014
 

Kansas City Chiefs (0-1) at Denver Broncos (1-0) The Chiefs had the fewest adjusted games lost last season. Now they’ve already lost two of their best players (Derrick Johnson and Mike DeVito) for the season with torn Achilles. On offense, Dwayne Bowe is back from suspension, but Donald Stephenson remains suspended and now Jeff Allen [...]

Aug 162014
 

QB Alex Smith (Kansas City) Smith was never really on the fantasy football radar as a starter, but the arrow is trending downward for him. He lost arguably his best 3 offensive linemen this off-season and the receiving corps wasn’t fixed. He’ll have a tougher schedule this season and have more injuries around him, after [...]

Jan 022014
 

Kansas City Chiefs (11-5) at Indianapolis Colts (11-5) This is the game I’m staying away from, simply because of how inconsistent Indianapolis has been this season. They’ve been alternating multiple game stretches where they’ve looked like a 13-3 team and a 6-10 team, with nothing really in between. Last season, they were nowhere near as [...]

Dec 192013
 

Indianapolis Colts (9-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (11-3) I’m completely split on this one. Not only do I not have a convincing argument for either side, but both of these two teams are essentially locked in to their current seed. Kansas City would need Denver to lose to either Houston or Oakland for them to [...]

Nov 302013
 

Last week: 7 (+0) Record: 9-2 There’s not a lot of shame in allowing 41 points in a game to the Chargers when you’re missing your top two pass rushers, especially considering the Chiefs were probably pretty distracted in between two games against Denver that would essentially decide the division regardless of what happened in [...]