Mar 142015

Maclin had a great 2014 season, as he had career highs across the board in Chip Kelly’s offense, despite quarterback problems, catching 85 passes for 1318 yards and 10 touchdowns, while grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 14th ranked wide receiver. However, he’s a one-year wonder. From 2009-2013, he missed 21 games with injury, including all […]

Dec 232014

San Diego Chargers (9-6) at Kansas City Chiefs (8-7) The Chiefs beat the Chargers in San Diego earlier this season, but that’s because the Chargers were in a terrible spot (the worst spot I’ve seen all since), with a Thursday Night road game in Denver on deck, while the Chiefs only had a home game […]

Dec 212014

Kansas City Chiefs (8-6) at Pittsburgh Steelers (9-5) This is the toughest game of the week for me to predict. These two teams are almost identical in terms of rate of moving the chains differential this year, with Pittsburgh coming in 6th, and Kansas City coming in 7th. The Steelers have the better offense, moving […]

Dec 132014

Oakland Raiders (2-11) at Kansas City Chiefs (7-6) The Raiders pulled the improbable upset over the 49ers last week as 8 point home underdogs and they did so in convincing fashion, but we’re still getting line value with the Chiefs as 10 only point home favorites here. The Raiders still rank dead last in rate […]

Dec 052014

Kansas City Chiefs (7-5) at Arizona Cardinals (9-3) The wheels are starting to fall off for the Arizona Cardinals. They have lost 2 straight by double digits in Seattle and Atlanta and they have one offensive touchdown in their last 11 quarters. I’ve said all season that this team had not been playing as well […]

Nov 252014

Denver Broncos (8-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (7-4) The Chiefs lost to the Raiders last week. How are they going to beat the Broncos this week? The public is all over the Broncos as small road favorites here so that’s clearly what they’re thinking. I love fading the public whenever it makes sense as they […]

Nov 182014

Kansas City Chiefs (7-3) at Oakland Raiders (0-10) The Chiefs beat the Seahawks last week, but this line still doesn’t reflect how good they are. They rank 2nd in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 77.45% rate, as opposed to 71.38% for their opponents, a differential of 6.07%. It makes […]

Sep 272014

New England Patriots (2-1) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-2) This is another game where there’s been significant line movement as the Patriots were 6.5 point favorites last week in this game and now they’re 3.5 point favorites, after the Patriots barely beat the Raiders in New England and the Chiefs won big time as underdogs […]

Sep 202014

Kansas City Chiefs (0-2) at Miami Dolphins (1-1) One of my favorites trends involves road underdogs off of a road loss. Teams are 101-67 ATS in that situation since 2008, including 86-45 ATS when it’s their 2nd straight road game and they next play a home game. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate […]

Sep 132014

Kansas City Chiefs (0-1) at Denver Broncos (1-0) The Chiefs had the fewest adjusted games lost last season. Now they’ve already lost two of their best players (Derrick Johnson and Mike DeVito) for the season with torn Achilles. On offense, Dwayne Bowe is back from suspension, but Donald Stephenson remains suspended and now Jeff Allen […]