Sep 272014
 

New England Patriots (2-1) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-2) This is another game where there’s been significant line movement as the Patriots were 6.5 point favorites last week in this game and now they’re 3.5 point favorites, after the Patriots barely beat the Raiders in New England and the Chiefs won big time as underdogs [...]

Sep 202014
 

Kansas City Chiefs (0-2) at Miami Dolphins (1-1) One of my favorites trends involves road underdogs off of a road loss. Teams are 101-67 ATS in that situation since 2008, including 86-45 ATS when it’s their 2nd straight road game and they next play a home game. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate [...]

Sep 132014
 

Kansas City Chiefs (0-1) at Denver Broncos (1-0) The Chiefs had the fewest adjusted games lost last season. Now they’ve already lost two of their best players (Derrick Johnson and Mike DeVito) for the season with torn Achilles. On offense, Dwayne Bowe is back from suspension, but Donald Stephenson remains suspended and now Jeff Allen [...]

Aug 162014
 

QB Alex Smith (Kansas City) Smith was never really on the fantasy football radar as a starter, but the arrow is trending downward for him. He lost arguably his best 3 offensive linemen this off-season and the receiving corps wasn’t fixed. He’ll have a tougher schedule this season and have more injuries around him, after [...]

Jan 022014
 

Kansas City Chiefs (11-5) at Indianapolis Colts (11-5) This is the game I’m staying away from, simply because of how inconsistent Indianapolis has been this season. They’ve been alternating multiple game stretches where they’ve looked like a 13-3 team and a 6-10 team, with nothing really in between. Last season, they were nowhere near as [...]

Dec 192013
 

Indianapolis Colts (9-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (11-3) I’m completely split on this one. Not only do I not have a convincing argument for either side, but both of these two teams are essentially locked in to their current seed. Kansas City would need Denver to lose to either Houston or Oakland for them to [...]

Nov 302013
 

Last week: 7 (+0) Record: 9-2 There’s not a lot of shame in allowing 41 points in a game to the Chargers when you’re missing your top two pass rushers, especially considering the Chiefs were probably pretty distracted in between two games against Denver that would essentially decide the division regardless of what happened in [...]

Nov 212013
 

San Diego Chargers (4-6) at Kansas City Chiefs (9-1) I’ve maintained all along that the Chiefs are not as good as their record. Going into last week’s game, they had the NFL’s easiest schedule according to DVOA, which doesn’t even take into account all of the backup quarterbacks they faced. However, despite that, they were [...]

Nov 092013
 

Last week: 8 (+1) Record: 9-0 It’s worth noting that the Bills’ offense led by Jeff Tuel outscored the Chiefs’ offense led by Alex Smith. The Bills won by 10 because of two return touchdowns, but that’s not a sustainable method of offense. Their schedule gets a lot harder from here on out. Their first [...]

Nov 022013
 

Kansas City Chiefs (8-0) at Buffalo Bills (3-5) Damnit. I was so ready to pick an upset here for Buffalo. Buffalo is better than their record, especially at home. In 4 home games, they’ve beaten a pair of top-15 teams on these Power Rankings (Carolina, Baltimore) and almost beat another pair of top-10 teams (New [...]

Oct 172013
 

Houston Texans (2-4) at Kansas City Chiefs (6-0) If Matt Schaub were starting in this one, Houston would have been my Pick of the Week. Seriously. I think they’re significantly better than their record right now. They are just getting killed in turnovers and points off of turnovers, two things that tend to be inconsistent [...]