Jan 132017

Pittsburgh Steelers (12-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (12-4) The Chiefs have been on my overrated list for a while. Despite their 12-4 record, they rank dead last among remaining the 8 remaining playoff teams in first down rate differential. Their record is largely the result of 6 wins by 8 points or less (including two […]

Dec 172016

Tennessee Titans (7-6) at Kansas City Chiefs (10-3) One of these teams has 11 more offensive touchdowns on the season than their opponents and the other one has 3 fewer offensive touchdowns on the season than their opponents. By looking at their records, you’d think 10-win Kansas City had the +11 margin, but it’s actually […]

Dec 032016

Kansas City Chiefs (8-3) at Atlanta Falcons (7-4) For weeks, the Chiefs have been at the top of my overrated teams list. They’re still on the list, as they are overly reliant on winning close games (5 wins by a touchdown or fewer), winning the turnover margin (+14 on the season), and getting return touchdowns […]

Nov 262016

Kansas City Chiefs (7-3) at Denver Broncos (7-3) The Chiefs are 7-3, but they’ve been overly reliant on close wins (4 of 7 wins by a touchdown or less), winning the turnover margin (+13 on the season, best in the NFL), and return touchdowns (+4 return touchdown margin). Those things tend to be very inconsistent […]

Nov 192016

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (7-2) Much is being made of the fact that the Chiefs have won 17 of their last 19 regular season games, winning their final 10 regular season games in 2015 and starting this season 7-2. That’s impressive, but the Chiefs have won their last 2 games despite […]

Nov 122016

Kansas City Chiefs (6-2) at Carolina Panthers (3-5) Ordinarily, I love fading significant week-to-week line movements, as they tend to be overreactions to a single week of play. This line has moved from 2.5 in favor of the Panthers on the early line last week to 3 this week, which doesn’t seem like a huge […]

Nov 052016

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (5-2) The Jaguars have had a disappointing 2016 season. A perennial cellar dweller in recent years, the Jaguars entered the off-season with a lot of young talent and cap space to spend to add to their young talent, which they did with free agent additions like Malik Jackson, […]

Oct 292016

Kansas City Chiefs (4-2) at Indianapolis Colts (3-4) The Colts get wide receivers Donte Moncrief and Phillip Dorsett back from injury this week, but are still pretty banged up, missing starting defensive ends Kendall Langford and Henry Anderson, starting tight end Dwayne Allen, and top offensive lineman Jack Mewhort. Despite that, I think we’re getting […]

Oct 012016

Kansas City Chiefs (2-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1) The Steelers lost last week in Philadelphia 34-3, their biggest loss since 1989. It was also just the 15th time since 2003 that a favorite lost by 31 points or more. Obviously, the Steelers should not have been 4 point road favorites in Philadelphia, but that’s more […]

Jan 162016

Kansas City Chiefs (12-5) at New England Patriots (12-4) This one’s tough. The Patriots should be able to cover this 5 point spread at home against the Chiefs. The Chiefs have famously won 11 straight games since a 1-5 start, but who did they beat over that time period? Buffalo? Denver when Manning had a […]

Dec 192015

Kansas City Chiefs (8-5) at Baltimore Ravens (5-8) This has been the season from hell for the Ravens. After going 11-5, winning a playoff game, and finishing the season 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential a year ago, the Ravens lost outside linebacker Pernell McPhee, defensive tackle Haloti Ngata, wide receiver Torrey Smith, and […]