As tempting as it is to go against Matt Schaub, whose team is reeling right now, especially since this is Matt Schaub’s first playoff start (quarterbacks are 5-13 ATS at home in their first playoff start since 2002), I’m going with the Texans. Andy Dalton has only legitimately beaten one playoff team in his career (against a banged up and still inexperienced Washington team that wasn’t as good as they are now). I also feel like this line would have been -7.5 a few weeks ago. I think people are overreacting too much to the Texans’ recent struggles. It’d have to be an even 3 for me to make Houston a significant play, but they should be the right side.
Houston Texans 24 Cincinnati Bengals 16
Pick against spread: Houston -4.5 (-110) 1 unit