Jan 172015
 

Indianapolis Colts (13-5) at New England Patriots (13-4) After the Ravens beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh, ensuring that they would go to New England in the 2nd round for yet another Patriots/Ravens playoff matchup, I started discussing on Twitter who the Patriots would choose to play in the 2nd round if they had the choice, [...]

Jan 082015
 

Indianapolis Colts (12-5) at Denver Broncos (12-4) Last week was an overall successful weekend. I hit 3 out of 4 plays, including both of my big plays (Baltimore +3 and Carolina -6). The one I missed was the Indianapolis/Cincinnati game, as I made a low confidence pick on Cincinnati. I understood the AJ Green absence [...]

Jan 022015
 

Cincinnati Bengals (10-5-1) at Indianapolis Colts (11-5) In addition to adjusting playoff teams’ rate of moving the chains differentials for strength of schedule, another thing I did differently this week was breaking out schedule adjusted differential into a team’s last 4 games and into a team’s last 8 weeks instead of just the whole season. [...]

Dec 232014
 

Indianapolis Colts (10-5) at Tennessee Titans (2-13) The Colts were embarrassed last week in a 42-7 loss in Dallas. I had Colts +3 as my Pick of the Week and I messed up big time. I failed to take into account the Colts’ relative road struggles, their struggles with quality opponents in recent years, including [...]

Dec 162014
 

Indianapolis Colts (10-4) at Dallas Cowboys (9-5) The Cowboys got an impressive victory in Philadelphia last week and that moved this line from even to 3 over the past week. I love fading significant line movements whenever it makes sense. This is a significant movement, going as it’s now at a key number, and fading [...]

Dec 062014
 

Indianapolis Colts (8-4) at Cleveland Browns (7-5) The Browns are in a bad spot here with the Bengals coming to town net week. Teams are 15-30 ATS since 2002 as non-divisional home underdogs before being divisional home underdogs. However, they should still be the right side. This line is too high at 3.5. That means [...]

Nov 262014
 

Washington Redskins (3-8) at Indianapolis Colts (7-4) The Redskins stand at 3-8, but they aren’t as bad as their record. Their -56 point differential isn’t as bad as their record. They have just 2 losses by more than 11 points. They’ve also been killed by the turnover battle (-9) and the return touchdown battle (-4), [...]

Nov 202014
 

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-9) at Indianapolis Colts (6-4) The Jaguars aren’t the worst team in the NFL, as the Raiders are winless at 0-10 and have looked really, really bad in the process, but they’ve still been horrible over the past two seasons. They have covered just 9 of their last 27 games, dating back to [...]

Nov 152014
 

New England Patriots (7-2) at Indianapolis Colts (6-3) The Patriots are usually an auto-bet as a small favorite or an underdog, as Tom Brady is 45-18 ATS in his career as an underdog or a favorite of fewer than 3 points. However, the usual conditions that accompany the Patriots being in this situation are not [...]

Oct 292014
 

Indianapolis Colts (5-3) at New York Giants (3-4) The Colts surprisingly lost in Pittsburgh last week by the final score of 51-34 as 3.5 point favorites. This week, they are once again 3.5 point road favorites here in New York against the Giants, but I think the result will be different for four reasons. The [...]

Oct 072014
 

Indianapolis Colts (3-2) at Houston Texans (3-2) The Texans lost a hard fought battle with the Cowboys last week in Dallas, losing by a field goal in overtime. Now they have to turn around and play another game after 3 days rest. That will really hurt them here. Teams generally struggle as home underdogs off [...]

Oct 042014
 

Baltimore Ravens (3-1) at Indianapolis Colts (2-2) I think the Ravens are an underrated team. They are 3-1 and they’ve moved the chains at a higher rate than their opponent in all 4 games they’ve played. Even in their home loss to undefeated Cincinnati, they moved the chains at a 75.68% rate, as opposed to [...]

Sep 232014
 

Tennessee Titans (1-2) at Indianapolis Colts (1-2) The Titans were 7 point underdogs in Cincinnati last week and got blown out by the score of 33-7. Now they’re 7.5 point underdogs in Indianapolis. I think this week will go a little differently for several reasons. For one, the Colts aren’t as good as the Bengals, [...]