Nov 232016
 

Pittsburgh Steelers (5-5) at Indianapolis Colts (5-5) When this line opened at 3 in favor of the visiting Pittsburgh Steelers, I was going to put money on the Colts. The Colts have had great homefield advantage in recent years with Andrew Luck under center, going 23-11 ATS, including 8-1 ATS as home underdogs. I underestimated […]

Nov 052016
 

Indianapolis Colts (3-5) at Green Bay Packers (4-3) The Colts have been one of the worst teams in the league this season, entering this game with the 4th lowest first down percentage differential in the league, thanks largely to a defense that ranks 31st in first down percentage allowed. One of the oldest rosters in […]

Oct 292016
 

Kansas City Chiefs (4-2) at Indianapolis Colts (3-4) The Colts get wide receivers Donte Moncrief and Phillip Dorsett back from injury this week, but are still pretty banged up, missing starting defensive ends Kendall Langford and Henry Anderson, starting tight end Dwayne Allen, and top offensive lineman Jack Mewhort. Despite that, I think we’re getting […]

Oct 222016
 

Indianapolis Colts (2-4) at Tennessee Titans (3-3) The Titans may be just 3-3, but they actually rank 2nd in the NFL in first down percentage differential. They’ve been competitive in every game and have a -7 point differential on the season, despite being -4 in return touchdown differential. Aside from those 4 plays, they have […]

Oct 012016
 

Indianapolis Colts (1-2) vs Jacksonville Jaguars (0-3) at London Both of these teams come to London much healthier than they’ve been all season. Defensive end Jared Odrick remains out for the Jaguars for the second straight game, but they get back cornerback Prince Amukamara, left tackle Kelvin Beachum, and center Brandon Linder this week, after […]

Sep 242016
 

San Diego Chargers (1-1) at Indianapolis Colts (0-2) The Chargers’ offense continues to be bitten by the injury bug. After finishing last season with the 8th most adjusted games lost to injury of any offense in the league, the Chargers lost #1 wide receiver Keenan Allen for the season week 1 and running back Danny […]

Sep 172016
 

Indianapolis Colts (0-1) at Denver Broncos (1-0) Coming into the season, I thought the Colts were one of the most overrated teams in the league. They get Andrew Luck back after an 8-8 2015 season, but their passing offense wasn’t the problem last season, as Matt Hasselbeck was serviceable until the last couple weeks of […]

Jan 032016
 

Tennessee Titans (3-13) at Indianapolis Colts (7-8) This is another one where I wouldn’t touch either side with money. Both teams have serious quarterback problems. The Colts are on to their 4th quarterback of the year, Josh Freeman. Matt Hasselbeck was playing in the absence of starting quarterback Andrew Luck, but he got hurt last […]

Dec 202015
 

Houston Texans (6-7) at Indianapolis Colts (6-7) The Colts lost 51-16 in Jacksonville last week, but the good news is that teams are 51-27 ATS since 2002 off of a loss of 35+ points. It’s counter-intuitive, but it makes sense, as teams tend to be embarrassed, overlooked, and undervalued in that spot. The Colts lost […]

Dec 122015
 

Indianapolis Colts (6-6) at Jacksonville Jaguars (4-8) The Colts lost in Pittsburgh 45-10 last week, but still rank 16th in rate of moving the chains differential, as opposed to 28th. Given that, I think we’re getting at least some line value with the Colts as 1 point underdogs. That’s no surprise, considering teams are 51-26 […]

Dec 042015
 

Indianapolis Colts (6-5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5) Matt Hasselbeck is 4-0 as the Colts’ starter and the Colts have moved the chains at a 73.60% rate in his 4 starts, as opposed to 69.66% in Andrew Luck’s 7 starts. Certainly getting Luck back healthy for the stretch run and playoffs is very important because, at […]

Nov 282015
 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-5) at Indianapolis Colts (5-5) Matt Hasselbeck is 3-0 as the Colts’ starter and the Colts have moved the chains at a 72.04% rate in his 3 starts, as opposed to 69.66% in Andrew Luck’s 7 starts. Certainly getting Luck back healthy for the stretch run and playoffs is very important because, […]

Nov 222015
 

Indianapolis Colts (4-5) at Atlanta Falcons (6-3) The Falcons are 6-3, but not as good as their record. Their 3 losses came against New Orleans, Tampa Bay, and San Francisco. Just 2 of their 6 wins have come by more than a touchdown and the toughest team they’ve beaten is probably Philadelphia, who they only […]

Oct 312015
 

Indianapolis Colts (3-4) at Carolina Panthers (6-0) Andrew Luck hasn’t looked right this season. His recent shoulder injury hasn’t helped, but he wasn’t playing well before that either, as he’s graded out as Pro Football Focus’ worst ranked quarterback, only ahead of Matt Stafford, on the season. It might be in the Colts’ best interest […]

Oct 172015
 

New England Patriots (4-0) at Indianapolis Colts (3-2) Normally, I love fading huge line movements, I can fade a heavy public lean in the process, as huge line movements are typically because of week-to-week overreactions. This game had one of those line movements, as the Colts have gone from being 5 point underdogs to 9.5 […]

Oct 042015
 

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2) at Indianapolis Colts (1-2) This line has finally been posted as Andrew Luck has been ruled out and the Colts are 3.5 point favorites here at home for Jacksonville. For anyone who took Jacksonville earlier this week when they were +8 (like me) congratulations and if you took Indianapolis -8…well you shouldn’t […]