Nov 282015

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-5) at Indianapolis Colts (5-5) Matt Hasselbeck is 3-0 as the Colts’ starter and the Colts have moved the chains at a 72.04% rate in his 3 starts, as opposed to 69.66% in Andrew Luck’s 7 starts. Certainly getting Luck back healthy for the stretch run and playoffs is very important because, […]

Nov 222015

Indianapolis Colts (4-5) at Atlanta Falcons (6-3) The Falcons are 6-3, but not as good as their record. Their 3 losses came against New Orleans, Tampa Bay, and San Francisco. Just 2 of their 6 wins have come by more than a touchdown and the toughest team they’ve beaten is probably Philadelphia, who they only […]

Oct 312015

Indianapolis Colts (3-4) at Carolina Panthers (6-0) Andrew Luck hasn’t looked right this season. His recent shoulder injury hasn’t helped, but he wasn’t playing well before that either, as he’s graded out as Pro Football Focus’ worst ranked quarterback, only ahead of Matt Stafford, on the season. It might be in the Colts’ best interest […]

Oct 172015

New England Patriots (4-0) at Indianapolis Colts (3-2) Normally, I love fading huge line movements, I can fade a heavy public lean in the process, as huge line movements are typically because of week-to-week overreactions. This game had one of those line movements, as the Colts have gone from being 5 point underdogs to 9.5 […]

Oct 042015

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2) at Indianapolis Colts (1-2) This line has finally been posted as Andrew Luck has been ruled out and the Colts are 3.5 point favorites here at home for Jacksonville. For anyone who took Jacksonville earlier this week when they were +8 (like me) congratulations and if you took Indianapolis -8…well you shouldn’t […]

Sep 182015

New York Jets (1-0) at Indianapolis Colts (0-1) One of my favorite things to do in betting is to go against significant week-to-week line movement. The logic behind it is this: significant line movements from one week to another that aren’t the result of serious injury are usually overreactions to one week and thus provide […]

Jan 172015

Indianapolis Colts (13-5) at New England Patriots (13-4) After the Ravens beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh, ensuring that they would go to New England in the 2nd round for yet another Patriots/Ravens playoff matchup, I started discussing on Twitter who the Patriots would choose to play in the 2nd round if they had the choice, […]

Jan 082015

Indianapolis Colts (12-5) at Denver Broncos (12-4) Last week was an overall successful weekend. I hit 3 out of 4 plays, including both of my big plays (Baltimore +3 and Carolina -6). The one I missed was the Indianapolis/Cincinnati game, as I made a low confidence pick on Cincinnati. I understood the AJ Green absence […]

Jan 022015

Cincinnati Bengals (10-5-1) at Indianapolis Colts (11-5) In addition to adjusting playoff teams’ rate of moving the chains differentials for strength of schedule, another thing I did differently this week was breaking out schedule adjusted differential into a team’s last 4 games and into a team’s last 8 weeks instead of just the whole season. […]

Dec 232014

Indianapolis Colts (10-5) at Tennessee Titans (2-13) The Colts were embarrassed last week in a 42-7 loss in Dallas. I had Colts +3 as my Pick of the Week and I messed up big time. I failed to take into account the Colts’ relative road struggles, their struggles with quality opponents in recent years, including […]

Dec 162014

Indianapolis Colts (10-4) at Dallas Cowboys (9-5) The Cowboys got an impressive victory in Philadelphia last week and that moved this line from even to 3 over the past week. I love fading significant line movements whenever it makes sense. This is a significant movement, going as it’s now at a key number, and fading […]