Jan 082015

Dallas Cowboys (13-4) at Green Bay Packers (12-4) This is the first time in NFL history that an 8-0 home team has met an 8-0 road team in the playoffs and both teams are in the location where they’ve had the most success this season, the Packers in Lambeau and the Cowboys, well, anywhere other […]

Jan 012015

Detroit Lions (11-5) at Dallas Cowboys (12-4) The Cowboys have been pretty inconsistent this season. They come into the playoffs red hot, ranking 3rd among playoff teams (only behind Seattle and Carolina) in rate of moving the chains differential adjusted for schedule. This makes sense as they won their final 4 to qualify for the […]

Dec 242014

Dallas Cowboys (11-4) at Washington Redskins (4-11) I’m torn on this one. On one hand, this line has shifted from 8 to 6 over the past week. I love fading significant line movements as they’re often overreactions. This line movement could very well be an overreaction. While the Redskins beat the Eagles last week, they […]

Dec 162014

Indianapolis Colts (10-4) at Dallas Cowboys (9-5) The Cowboys got an impressive victory in Philadelphia last week and that moved this line from even to 3 over the past week. I love fading significant line movements whenever it makes sense. This is a significant movement, going as it’s now at a key number, and fading […]

Dec 122014

Dallas Cowboys (9-4) at Philadelphia Eagles (9-4) The Eagles won in Dallas a few weeks ago, but that doesn’t mean these two teams aren’t even. The Eagles rank 11th, moving the chains at 71.46% rate, as opposed to 70.14% for their opponents, a differential of 1.32%. The Cowboys, very similarly, rank 14th, moving the chains […]

Dec 032014

Dallas Cowboys (8-4) at Chicago Bears (5-7) This line is off. The Bears rank 18th, moving the chains at a 74.74% rate, as opposed to 74.80% for their opponents, a differential of -0.06%. The Cowboys, meanwhile, rank 14th, moving the chains at a 75.27% rate, as opposed to 74.30% for their opponents, a differential of […]

Nov 262014

Philadelphia Eagles (8-3) at Dallas Cowboys (8-3) The Cowboys have been horrible as home favorites since 2010, going 7-22 ATS in that situation. This isn’t unique to them as the whole NFC East recently has had less homefield advantage than average recently. At home, the NFC East is 73-82 since 2010, outscoring opponents by an […]

Nov 212014

Dallas Cowboys (7-3) at New York Giants (3-7) One of the more powerful trends says that road favorites of 3 or more are incredibly dominant off of a bye, going 40-12 ATS since 2002, including 21-4 ATS in divisional matchups, like this one here. It makes sense. The Cowboys are a significantly better team than […]

Nov 082014

Dallas Cowboys (6-2) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-8) in London Tony Romo is back for the Cowboys this week after missing last week with a back bruise. Given that, we should be getting significant line value with the Cowboys as just 7 point favorites on a neutral field here in London over the Jaguars. Despite missing […]

Oct 252014

Washington Redskins (2-5) at Dallas Cowboys (6-1) Last week I picked against the Cowboys when they planned the Giants here at home in Dallas. That didn’t work out as the Cowboys won 31-21 as 6.5 point favorites, but it could have easily been a different result (against the spread). The Giants led 14-7 earlier and […]

Oct 082014

Dallas Cowboys (4-1) at Seattle Seahawks (3-1) The Seahawks are basically an auto-bet at home. Since 2007, the Seahawks are 43-19 at home, including playoffs and they aren’t just having success straight up as they are 42-19-1 ATS. They outscore opponents on average by 7.73 points per game. This is opposed to a 23-40 record […]

Oct 012014

Houston Texans (3-1) at Dallas Cowboys (3-1) The Cowboys have greatly exceeded my expectations. By far the biggest surprise has been the play of their defense. They haven’t been good or anything, but considering the complete lack of talent they came into the season with, a lot of credit needs to be given to new […]

Sep 252014

New Orleans Saints (1-2) at Dallas Cowboys (2-1) This is a tough one. On one hand, the Saints’ road struggles are well documented and they’ve been especially bad over the past two seasons. Just this season, they’ve already lost in Atlanta and Cleveland as road favorites. The Saints are 3-9 ATS on the road since […]

Sep 202014

St. Louis Rams (1-1) at Dallas Cowboys (1-1) This game is relatively meaningless for the Cowboys as compared to next week’s game against the Saints in Dallas. Teams are 74-117 ATS as road favorites before being home underdogs since 1989, including 20-39 ATS when both games are non-divisional. They could easily overlook the Rams. They […]