Nov 252015

Carolina Panthers (10-0) at Dallas Cowboys (3-7) Carolina is undefeated and Dallas is 3-7, but the Cowboys are the ones favored here in Dallas (albeit by 1 point). That’s because 5 of the Cowboys’ 7 losses have come by less than a touchdown and they’re finally healthy offensively. Tony Romo made just his 3rd start […]

Oct 312015

Seattle Seahawks (3-4) at Dallas Cowboys (2-4) The Dallas Cowboys lost their 2nd most important offensive player (wide receiver Dez Bryant) to a serious injury in the first week of the season and their most important offensive player (quarterback Tony Romo) to a serious injury in the second week of the season. The Cowboys managed […]

Oct 102015

New England Patriots (3-0) at Dallas Cowboys (2-2) How good has the Patriots’ offense been this season? Well, only two teams have more offensive touchdowns than they do (Cincinnati and Atlanta) and that’s despite the fact that the Patriots are coming off of a bye and 30 teams have played more games than them. They’re […]

Jan 082015

Dallas Cowboys (13-4) at Green Bay Packers (12-4) This is the first time in NFL history that an 8-0 home team has met an 8-0 road team in the playoffs and both teams are in the location where they’ve had the most success this season, the Packers in Lambeau and the Cowboys, well, anywhere other […]

Jan 012015

Detroit Lions (11-5) at Dallas Cowboys (12-4) The Cowboys have been pretty inconsistent this season. They come into the playoffs red hot, ranking 3rd among playoff teams (only behind Seattle and Carolina) in rate of moving the chains differential adjusted for schedule. This makes sense as they won their final 4 to qualify for the […]

Dec 242014

Dallas Cowboys (11-4) at Washington Redskins (4-11) I’m torn on this one. On one hand, this line has shifted from 8 to 6 over the past week. I love fading significant line movements as they’re often overreactions. This line movement could very well be an overreaction. While the Redskins beat the Eagles last week, they […]

Dec 162014

Indianapolis Colts (10-4) at Dallas Cowboys (9-5) The Cowboys got an impressive victory in Philadelphia last week and that moved this line from even to 3 over the past week. I love fading significant line movements whenever it makes sense. This is a significant movement, going as it’s now at a key number, and fading […]

Dec 122014

Dallas Cowboys (9-4) at Philadelphia Eagles (9-4) The Eagles won in Dallas a few weeks ago, but that doesn’t mean these two teams aren’t even. The Eagles rank 11th, moving the chains at 71.46% rate, as opposed to 70.14% for their opponents, a differential of 1.32%. The Cowboys, very similarly, rank 14th, moving the chains […]

Dec 032014

Dallas Cowboys (8-4) at Chicago Bears (5-7) This line is off. The Bears rank 18th, moving the chains at a 74.74% rate, as opposed to 74.80% for their opponents, a differential of -0.06%. The Cowboys, meanwhile, rank 14th, moving the chains at a 75.27% rate, as opposed to 74.30% for their opponents, a differential of […]

Nov 262014

Philadelphia Eagles (8-3) at Dallas Cowboys (8-3) The Cowboys have been horrible as home favorites since 2010, going 7-22 ATS in that situation. This isn’t unique to them as the whole NFC East recently has had less homefield advantage than average recently. At home, the NFC East is 73-82 since 2010, outscoring opponents by an […]

Nov 212014

Dallas Cowboys (7-3) at New York Giants (3-7) One of the more powerful trends says that road favorites of 3 or more are incredibly dominant off of a bye, going 40-12 ATS since 2002, including 21-4 ATS in divisional matchups, like this one here. It makes sense. The Cowboys are a significantly better team than […]