4-3 to 3-4 Atlanta Falcons This one isn’t confirmed, but Falcons’ defensive coordinator Mike Nolan is a 3-4 guy. He did a great job in his first season with the Falcons, coaching them to a top-5 scoring defense, despite having to run a 4-3, because he wisely realized they didn’t have the personnel for an [...]
Another year, another Cowboys December meltdown. This year the script was a little bit different. Entering the month of December at 5-6, it didn’t look like there would be anything for the team to choke away, but three straight wins put them in control of their own destiny with two games to go. Even with [...]
Dallas Cowboys (8-7) at Washington Redskins (9-6) The name of the game is simple for the Dallas Cowboys. If they lose, they go home. If they win, they win the NFC East. For the Redskins, it’s a little bit more complicated. They clinch the division with a win, same as with the Cowboys, but they [...]
Last week: 16 (+1) Record: 8-7 Net points per drive: -0.07 (17th) DVOA: 0.3% (14th) Weighted DVOA: 1.1% (15th) Studs LT Tyron Smith: Did not allow a pressure on 45 pass block snaps LG Nate Livings: Allowed 1 quarterback hit on 45 pass block snaps, run blocked for 5 yards on 1 attempt QB Tony [...]
New Orleans Saints (6-8) at Dallas Cowboys (8-6) The Cowboys entered December at 6-6 after a rough month of November, traditionally a strong month for them, and it looked unlikely that they would be unable to choke again this December, mostly because there would be nothing to choke away. However, after two straight wins, they [...]
Last week: 19 (+3) Record: 8-6 Net points per drive: -0.06 (18th) DVOA: -1.9% (16th) Weighted DVOA: -4.0% (17th) Heading into December at 6-6, after a rough November, traditionally a strong month, it didn’t look like the Cowboys would choke it away in December again, because they didn’t really have anything to choke away. Now [...]
Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6) at Dallas Cowboys (7-6) After the Steelers’ loss last week, I was expecting them to be dogs here, especially after the Cowboys big win as dogs last week. There was no early line last week because Ben Roethlisberger’s status was still in doubt so I didn’t know really what to expect in [...]
Last week: 17 (-2) Record: 7-6 Net points per drive: -0.07 (17th) DVOA: -2.1% (17th) Weighted DVOA: -3.3% (18th) The Cowboys got an emotional win on this road this week, but they could be flat off that game at home, where they generally struggle, for an angry Pittsburgh team this week. They then host New [...]
Dallas Cowboys (6-6) at Cincinnati Bengals (7-5) Someone check me for a concussion because I like the Bengals this week. It’s not that the Bengals are bad or anything, but I just haven’t picked them yet this year. It’s nothing against them or anything and I haven’t really been missing out as they’re just 6-6 [...]
Last week: 17 (+0) Record: 6-6 Net points per drive: -0.08 (17th) DVOA: -2.0% (16th) Weighted DVOA: -3.9% (19th) Studs QB Tony Romo: 22 of 27 for 302 yards and 3 touchdowns, 1 throw away, 118.8 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 11 of 31 drop backs (1 scramble, 2 sacks, 5 of 8, 1 touchdown, [...]
Philadelphia Eagles (3-8) at Dallas Cowboys (5-6) 2 weeks ago, the Cowboys stood at 4-5, but many people still gave them a chance to win this division. The Giants weren’t looking great and the Cowboys, having played a very tough schedule in their first 9 games, had a very easy schedule down the stretch with [...]
Last week: 12 (-5) Record: 5-6 Net points per drive: -0.13 (20th) DVOA: 0.9% (15th) Weighted DVOA: 1.1% (15th) Tier 5: Teams many predicted to make the playoffs at the beginning of the season, but that are long shots now Studs WR Dez Bryant: Caught 8 passes for 145 yards and 2 touchdowns on 11 [...]
Last week: 12 (+0) Record: 6-4 If the Cowboys win at home this week against the 4-6 Redskins and the Giants lose to the Packers, these two teams will be tied at 6-5 and the Cowboys be the favorite because they have the much easier schedule. The Cowboys host Philadelphia, go to Cincinnati, then host [...]
Washington Redskins (4-6) at Dallas Cowboys (5-5) People really seem to have soured on the Cowboys after their near loss to the Browns last week. This line was at Dallas -6 last week and now it’s at -3 and the public is still pounding the underdog. The fact that the public is pounding the underdog [...]
Cleveland Browns (2-7) at Dallas Cowboys (4-5) As many of you who read these picks regularly know, I love using yards per play differential and rate of sustaining drives differential to compute real line. Yards per play differential measures how well a team does on an average play (offensive or defensive) and overrates teams that [...]
Last week: 17 (-5) Record: 4-5 I said anything could happen in the Dallas/Philadelphia game. Apparently me believing in the Cowboys again qualifies. They play 5 of their last 7 at home. After having the league’s toughest schedule through 8 games, they have the league’s 2nd easiest over their final 7 and that includes Pittsburgh, [...]
Dallas Cowboys (3-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-5) Last week, I enjoyed a relatively successful week. I hit 4 of my 6 big plays and went 9-5 overall, but it could have been a lot better. I hit my first 4 big plays and if I had hit my last 2, I would have enjoyed my [...]
Last week: 17 (+0) Record: 3-5 The Cowboys will stop underachieving once they fire Wade Phillips…oh wait… they did that 2 years ago. In an interview shown before Sunday Night Football, Owner/GM Jerry Jones said that if the GM were anyone other than him, he as Owner would have fired him by now. However, the [...]
Last week: 16 (-1) Record: 3-4 The good news for the Cowboys is that they rank 8th in yards per play differential and 7th in rate of sustaining drives differential. The biggest issue, by far, has been turnover differential so far for them, as they have a turnover differential of -11, 2nd worst in the [...]
New York Giants (5-2) at Dallas Cowboys (3-3) This line opened as Cowboys -1 and I was ready to make a big play on the Giants for several reasons. For starters, in the Tom Coughlin era, they are 39-21 ATS as a dog. Also in the Tom Coughlin era, they are 49-25 ATS on the [...]
If you’re wondering who Barry Church is, don’t feel bad. He’s a 2010 undrafted free agent who has made 4 career starts and is currently on IR after tearing his Achilles week 3. Apparently, the Cowboys felt it was urgent to give him a 4 year extension worth 12.4 million with 3.9 million guaranteed before [...]
Last week: 15 (-1) Record: 3-3 The Cowboys haven’t been playing well lately, but they get the Giants in Dallas this week and if they win, they’ll hold the season series and be tied with the Giants in the loss column. However, they’ll have to do it without middle linebacker Sean Lee, one of the [...]
Dallas Cowboys (2-3) at Carolina Panthers (1-4) Why does it seem like no matter who is coaching the Cowboys, they seem to continue to make the same dumb mistakes? Last week, they dominated throughout essentially, but were frequently penalized, something that’s been an issue for them all year and dating back to last year. They [...]
Last week: 12 (-3) Record: 2-3 Well, at least Jason Garrett didn’t ice his own kicker this time. However, he repeated one mistake from that infamous icing his own kicker game. In that game against Arizona, I would argue the biggest mistake was not making sure the Cowboys could run another play to at least [...]
Dallas Cowboys (2-2) at Baltimore Ravens (4-1) Since their impressive win over the Patriots week 3, the Ravens have fallen flat in back-to-back games against inferior opponents, winning by just 6 at home against Cleveland and winning by just 3 in Kansas City last week. Does this mean they’re not as good as they once [...]