Sep 162016

Dallas Cowboys (0-1) at Washington Redskins (0-1)

The Cowboys lost a very close one at home last week to the Giants, losing 20-19 in a game in which they actually moved the chains at a better rate than their opponents (78.13% to 77.78%). The Cowboys have not had much homefield advantage for several years and have been much better at covering on the road than at home. They are 15-34 ATS at home since 2010, including 8-26 ATS as home favorites, as opposed to 27-21 ATS on the road, including 19-12 ATS as road underdogs, as they are here (8-4 ATS as road divisional underdogs). That makes sense, as the Cowboys have fans scattered around the country and normally have many of their own fans in attendance at road games.

The Cowboys are also in a much better spot than the Redskins are this week. Next week, the Cowboys host the lowly Bears, while the Redskins have to turn around and head to New York for another divisional game against the Giants, this time a game in which they’ll be underdogs. Favorites are just 56-80 ATS since 2012 when their opponents will next be favorites. On top of that, divisional home favorites like the Redskins are just 22-61 ATS since 2002 before being divisional road favorites. The Redskins, fresh off of a terrible performance on Monday Night Football against the Steelers, might look past this “easier” game with a road divisional game on deck. As long as we’re getting the full field goal with them, I like the Cowboys’ chances of covering and pulling the upset. This is a big play.

Dallas Cowboys 27 New York Giants 24 Upset Pick +125

Pick against the spread: Dallas +3

Confidence: High

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