Denver Broncos (7-1) at San Diego Chargers (4-4)
Dominant teams usually play very well off of a bye. Since 2002, road favorites of 3.5 or more are 29-8 ATS since 2002, including 12-1 ATS in a divisional game. This makes sense. Dominant teams are better suited to using an extra week off. Peyton Manning, for instance, is 9-1 ATS off of a regular season bye since 2004, in his last 10 instances. The Broncos are in a very good position here as 7 point road favorites after a bye.
The Broncos are also in another good spot as divisional road favorites before being divisional home favorites against the Chiefs next week. Teams are 38-22 ATS in that spot since 2002. The Broncos are a dominant team with a league leading +125 points differential. They’ve won 6 of their 8 games by 16 or more and they should win this one here by at least 7 with a bye off to prepare for the Chargers. This is my Pick of the Week.
Denver Broncos 38 San Diego Chargers 24
Pick against spread: Denver -7
Confidence: Pick of the Week