Oct 252014
 

Miami Dolphins (3-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-6) I’m completely split on this one. On one hand, the Jaguars are in a bad spot, having to go to Cincinnati next week where they will almost certainly be double digit underdogs (the early line is 11). Teams are 40-81 ATS before being double digit underdogs since 2010. [...]

Oct 112014
 

Green Bay Packers (3-2) at Miami Dolphins (2-2) The Packers had a dominant win on Thursday Night Football last week, winning 42-10. However, that hurts them this week. The Packers will have had 10 days of basking in their own glory after last week’s blowout victory over the Buccaneers. Road favorites are 9-19 ATS after [...]

Sep 272014
 

Miami Dolphins (1-2) at Oakland Raiders (0-3) in London The Dolphins should cover this spread fairly easily as mere 3.5 point favorites in a neutral site game against the pathetic Raiders. This line was at 7 last week before the Dolphins got blown out at home by the Chiefs. Obviously the line should have moved [...]

Sep 202014
 

Kansas City Chiefs (0-2) at Miami Dolphins (1-1) One of my favorites trends involves road underdogs off of a road loss. Teams are 101-67 ATS in that situation since 2008, including 86-45 ATS when it’s their 2nd straight road game and they next play a home game. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate [...]

Aug 162014
 

QB Ryan Tannehill (Miami) Ryan Tannehill showed improvement from his rookie year, when he completed 58.3% of his passes for an average of 6.81 YPA, 12 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions, a QB rating of 76.1. In 2013, he completed 60.4% of his passes for an average of 6.66 YPA, 24 touchdowns and 17 interceptions, a [...]

Mar 172014
 

This year’s cornerback free agent class was hyped as one of the better in recent memory and there are valid arguments for that, but each of the top cornerbacks had their warts (except cap casualty Darrelle Revis). Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Vontae Davis all have been inconsistent in their careers, before putting together strong contract years [...]

Mar 132014
 

The Dolphins obviously needed a blindside protector, possibly more than any team in the league, but this was a buyer’s market in terms of left tackles, which is a rarity considering top level blindside protectors rarely are allowed to hit the open market. However, this off-season Albert, Jared Veldheer, Eugene Monroe, and Anthony Collins all [...]

Dec 112013
 

New England Patriots (10-3) at Miami Dolphins (7-6) The Patriots lost Rob Gronkowski. How can they function? Well, while it’s very true that Gronk was the 2nd most important player on the team after Tom Brady and that this significantly hurts their Super Bowl chances, the Patriots have proven they can still move the ball [...]

Dec 072013
 

Miami Dolphins (6-6) at Pittsburgh Steelers (5-7) This line suggests that those two teams are even, with Pittsburgh favored by 3 at home, because 3 is the standard adjustment for home field advantage. I don’t think that’s true. The Steelers started the year 0-4 because of serious turnover battle problems (-9), but that kind of [...]