This random signing of a linebacker by the Dolphins wasn’t as bad as the Dannell Ellerbe atrocity. Wheeler played pretty well last season, grading out as ProFootballFocus’ 7th rated 4-3 outside linebacker, but you have to remember where he was a year ago. Last off-season, he didn’t even get a million dollars on a 1 [...]
Clemons is an unheralded player, but he graded out positively both against the run and in coverage last year. He barely played in 2011 and struggled in his first two years in the league after the Dolphins took him in the 5th round of the 2009 NFL Draft, so credit the Dolphins for not committing [...]
This was the one move that came completely out of nowhere. Middle linebacker wasn’t a need of the Dolphins’. Sure, Karlos Dansby was getting older, but he still played at a very high level and cutting him and giving Dannell Ellerbe even more money makes absolutely no sense. Dansby was owed about 15 million over [...]
Brian Hartline had a 1000 yard breakout season last year, catching 74 passes for 1083 yards, after combining for 109 catches for 1670 yards in his first 3 years in the league after going in the 4th round of the 2009 NFL Draft out of Ohio State. However, those numbers are deceiving. First, he only [...]
The Dolphins have been searching for Dan Marino’s replacement since he retired. Desperate for a quarterback, the Dolphins took raw quarterback Ryan Tannehill 8th overall in the 2012 NFL Draft and when veteran Matt Moore struggled in the pre-season, they made Tannehill a rookie starter. It’s tough to make much of a verdict on his [...]
Miami Dolphins (7-8) at New England Patriots (11-4) I can’t handicap week 17 games like I do other games (maybe that’s a good thing because I’ve had a rough few weeks), because one of the things I do is look for upcoming distractions and dynamic changes on their schedule. In week 17, I can’t do [...]
Last week: 22 (+3) Record: 7-8 Net points per drive: 0.05 (15th) DVOA: -4.2% (19th) Weighted DVOA: -6.6% (20th) Studs LG Richie Incognito: Did not allow a pressure on 29 pass block snaps, run blocked for 45 yards on 4 attempts RB Lamar Miller: Rushed for 71 yards (30 after contact) on 10 attempts RB [...]
Buffalo Bills (5-9) at Miami Dolphins (6-8) The Bills got blown out last week, losing 50-17 “at home” in Toronto to the Seahawks. As a result, they rank 28th in points per drive at -0.58. The Dolphins, on the other hand, rank 17th at -0.04. If you take the difference, multiply by 11 (average amount [...]
Last week: 21 (-1) Record: 6-8 Net points per drive: -0.04 (17th) DVOA: -4.7% (18th) Weighted DVOA: -6.4% (20th) The Dolphins are also done winning I think. They almost definitely won’t win in New England week 17, but they might be so distracted by that game that they get upset this week at home by [...]
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-11) at Miami Dolphins (5-8) I’ve mentioned the six and six trend here several times. Teams are 23-64 ATS since 2002 as favorites of 6 or more if they finish with 6 wins or fewer. The Dolphins might be a candidate for that here as 7.5 point favorites over the Jaguars. They are [...]
Last week: 18 (-3) Record: 5-8 Net points per drive: -0.18 (21st) DVOA: -5.9% (20th) Weighted DVOA: -8.3% (23rd) The Dolphins have two very winnable home games in a row against the Jaguars and Bills before closing out in New England. Chalk has this team finishing at 7-9 and that seems like what’s going to [...]
Miami Dolphins (5-7) at San Francisco 49ers (8-3) The 49ers lost to the Rams last week in St. Louis, which has gotten a lot of Alex Smith supporters saying “I told you so,” questioning Jim Harbaugh’s decision to bench Alex Smith for Colin Kaepernick. These people seem to be forgetting that Smith was losing to [...]
Last week: 18 (+3) Record: 5-7 Net points per drive: -0.1 (18th) DVOA: -5.3% (21st) Weighted DVOA: -6.6% (21st) Studs LG Richie Incognito: Allowed 1 quarterback hit on 36 pass block snaps, run blocked for 6 yards on 1 attempt RG John Jerry: Did not allow a pressure on 36 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, [...]
New England Patriots (8-3) Miami Dolphins (5-6) The Patriots are on quite a roll right now. Once called an “average team” by Tony Dungy when they stood at 3-3, the Patriots have now won 5 games in a row including their last 2 by a combined 65 points and 3 of 4 by 30 or [...]
Last week: 19 (-2) Record: 5-6 Net points per drive: -0.05 (17th) DVOA: -5.6% (20th) Weighted DVOA: -7.6% (21st) Tier 6: Not going to make the playoffs, but they can pull some upsets down the stretch Studs QB Ryan Tannehill: 18 of 26 for 253 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception, 1 throw away, 1 [...]
Seattle Seahawks (6-4) at Miami Dolphins (4-6) As I mentioned in the Tennessee/Jacksonville write up, one situation I love betting on is road favorites after a bye. It’s strong for divisional matchups, as teams are 22-3 ATS as divisional road favorites off a bye since 2002, but that trend is still 22-12 ATS for non-divisional [...]
Last week: 16 (-3) Record: 4-6 Ryan Tannehill was awful last week at Buffalo, going 14 of 28 for 141 yards, 1 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, but he was a rookie quarterback on the road on a short week. Still, it’s safe to say that any early hype about him is dead now that they’ve [...]
Last week: 12 (-4) Record: 4-5 They haven’t had a very good two weeks. Two weeks ago, they were in a playoff spot, 4-3, and road favorites heading to Indianapolis. Now they are 4-5 and dogs in Buffalo. Andrew Luck and taken back the title of best AFC rookie quarterback from Ryan Tannehill (did he [...]
Miami Dolphins (4-5) at Buffalo Bills (3-6) Things have really gone south for the Dolphins in the past few weeks. How south? 2 weeks ago they were in a playoff spot in the AFC and road favorites going to Indianapolis. Two weeks later, they are 4-5 and are dogs in Buffalo. Not only that, but [...]
Tennessee Titans (3-6) at Miami Dolphins (4-4) Jake Locker returns this week for the Titans. It’s amazing. It’s almost as if his shoulder magically healed as soon as veteran backup Matt Hasselbeck had a bad game. Locker has more upside definitely and is the right quarterback for this team right now, because they’re not going [...]
Last week: 12 (-2) Record: 4-4 In spite of a close road loss in a previously underrated Colts team, the Dolphins are still legitimate playoff contenders and if history is any indication, they’re more likely to make it than some other borderline playoff teams in the AFC right now, other than San Diego. Every year, [...]
Miami Dolphins (4-3) at Indianapolis Colts (4-3) Both of these teams sit at 4-3, meaning this game could easily have playoff implications and one or both of these teams could make the playoffs. I bet you didn’t see that coming. I would say these teams are pretty equal. I had Miami ranked 10th in my [...]
Last week: 12 (+2) Record: 4-3 If the season ended today, Miami and Indianapolis would be in the playoffs in the crappy AFC. Those two teams square off this week in Indianapolis in a game that could have playoff implications. I have Miami ranked higher right now. They rank 21st in yards per play differential [...]
Miami Dolphins (3-3) at New York Jets (3-4) The Jets beat the Dolphins in Miami earlier this year, therefore they should beat them in New York right? Well, that seems to be what the public thinks as the Jets are a heavily public lean, but I disagree for several reasons. The first one is that [...]
Last week: 12 (+0) Record: 3-3 On bye.