Sep 202014

Kansas City Chiefs (0-2) at Miami Dolphins (1-1) One of my favorites trends involves road underdogs off of a road loss. Teams are 101-67 ATS in that situation since 2008, including 86-45 ATS when it’s their 2nd straight road game and they next play a home game. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate [...]

Aug 162014

QB Ryan Tannehill (Miami) Ryan Tannehill showed improvement from his rookie year, when he completed 58.3% of his passes for an average of 6.81 YPA, 12 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions, a QB rating of 76.1. In 2013, he completed 60.4% of his passes for an average of 6.66 YPA, 24 touchdowns and 17 interceptions, a [...]

Mar 172014

This year’s cornerback free agent class was hyped as one of the better in recent memory and there are valid arguments for that, but each of the top cornerbacks had their warts (except cap casualty Darrelle Revis). Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Vontae Davis all have been inconsistent in their careers, before putting together strong contract years [...]

Mar 132014

The Dolphins obviously needed a blindside protector, possibly more than any team in the league, but this was a buyer’s market in terms of left tackles, which is a rarity considering top level blindside protectors rarely are allowed to hit the open market. However, this off-season Albert, Jared Veldheer, Eugene Monroe, and Anthony Collins all [...]

Dec 112013

New England Patriots (10-3) at Miami Dolphins (7-6) The Patriots lost Rob Gronkowski. How can they function? Well, while it’s very true that Gronk was the 2nd most important player on the team after Tom Brady and that this significantly hurts their Super Bowl chances, the Patriots have proven they can still move the ball [...]

Dec 072013

Miami Dolphins (6-6) at Pittsburgh Steelers (5-7) This line suggests that those two teams are even, with Pittsburgh favored by 3 at home, because 3 is the standard adjustment for home field advantage. I don’t think that’s true. The Steelers started the year 0-4 because of serious turnover battle problems (-9), but that kind of [...]

Nov 222013

Carolina Panthers (7-3) at Miami Dolphins (5-5) The Panthers have established themselves as a top level team with wins over the Patriots and 49ers in the past 2 weeks, winning both by a touchdown or less, despite going 2-14 in games decided by a touchdown or less since the start of the Cam Newton/Ron Rivera [...]

Nov 152013

Last week: 25 (+0) Record: 4-5 The Incognito/Martin situation and the loss of two starters on the offensive line were a big part of it, but the Dolphins’ loss to the Buccaneers was largely a result of this team’s lack of talent. GM Jeff Ireland should be fired, but not because of the Incognito/Martin situation. [...]

Nov 092013

Last week: 22 (-3) Record: 4-4 I’ll get into the Richie Incognito situation in depth in a different place, but purely on the field, I think it’s going to have a very negative effect. They are probably going to be without 2 of their starting offensive linemen for the season on an offensive line that [...]