Oct 032015

New York Jets (2-1) at Miami Dolphins (1-2) in London The Dolphins fell flat on their face in their home opener last week, losing 41-14 to the Buffalo Bills. The Dolphins, for some reason, haven’t had much of a homefield advantage in recent years, going 13-12, getting outscored by an average of 0.04 points per […]

Sep 192015

Miami Dolphins (1-0) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1) I had the Dolphins as one of the best teams in the league going into the season. They were arguably the best non-playoff team in the league last season, finishing 10th in rate of moving the chains differential. Now they’re improved on the offensive line, improved in the […]

Sep 122015

Miami Dolphins (0-0) at Washington Redskins (0-0) I hate making big plays on road favorites that are heavily backed by the public. Those always scream “trap game” to me. Whenever the public is heavily on a road favorite it’s usually for the wrong reason. That reason is that the lines can seem to be too […]

Mar 172015

Trade for Saints: I’m a little confused why the Saints wanted to move Kenny Stills. I understand why they wanted to move Jimmy Graham and Ben Grubbs. The Saints were in salary cap hell and needed to get expensive players off their books. Stills, however, was still on a rookie deal, so he wasn’t taking […]

Dec 232014

New York Jets (3-12) at Miami Dolphins (8-7) The Jets said it themselves (or at least safety Calvin Pryor did). Last week’s game at home against the Patriots was their Super Bowl. Unfortunately for the Jets, they can’t even win pretend Super Bowls, but they did only lose by 1, the 4th straight Patriots/Jets game […]

Dec 182014

Minnesota Vikings (6-8) at Miami Dolphins (7-7) At first glance, this line is actually a little bit too low at 7. The Dolphins rank 12th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at a 74.16% rate, as opposed to 72.84% for their opponents, a differential of 1.33%. Meanwhile, the Vikings rank all the […]

Dec 132014

Miami Dolphins (7-6) at New England Patriots (10-3) Both of these two teams are in great spots. The Dolphins are playing arguably the biggest game of their season (a must-win on the road against division rival New England), with no upcoming distractions, as their next game is a home game against Minnesota. The early line […]

Dec 062014

Baltimore Ravens (7-5) at Miami Dolphins (7-5) The Dolphins are the better of these two teams, but they are only favored by 2.5 here at home (less than the average homefield advantage adjustment of 3). The Dolphins rank 4th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 75.06% rate, as opposed […]

Oct 252014

Miami Dolphins (3-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-6) I’m completely split on this one. On one hand, the Jaguars are in a bad spot, having to go to Cincinnati next week where they will almost certainly be double digit underdogs (the early line is 11). Teams are 40-81 ATS before being double digit underdogs since 2010. […]