Mar 172015
 

Trade for Saints: I’m a little confused why the Saints wanted to move Kenny Stills. I understand why they wanted to move Jimmy Graham and Ben Grubbs. The Saints were in salary cap hell and needed to get expensive players off their books. Stills, however, was still on a rookie deal, so he wasn’t taking […]

Dec 232014
 

New York Jets (3-12) at Miami Dolphins (8-7) The Jets said it themselves (or at least safety Calvin Pryor did). Last week’s game at home against the Patriots was their Super Bowl. Unfortunately for the Jets, they can’t even win pretend Super Bowls, but they did only lose by 1, the 4th straight Patriots/Jets game […]

Dec 182014
 

Minnesota Vikings (6-8) at Miami Dolphins (7-7) At first glance, this line is actually a little bit too low at 7. The Dolphins rank 12th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at a 74.16% rate, as opposed to 72.84% for their opponents, a differential of 1.33%. Meanwhile, the Vikings rank all the […]

Dec 132014
 

Miami Dolphins (7-6) at New England Patriots (10-3) Both of these two teams are in great spots. The Dolphins are playing arguably the biggest game of their season (a must-win on the road against division rival New England), with no upcoming distractions, as their next game is a home game against Minnesota. The early line […]

Dec 062014
 

Baltimore Ravens (7-5) at Miami Dolphins (7-5) The Dolphins are the better of these two teams, but they are only favored by 2.5 here at home (less than the average homefield advantage adjustment of 3). The Dolphins rank 4th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 75.06% rate, as opposed […]

Oct 252014
 

Miami Dolphins (3-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-6) I’m completely split on this one. On one hand, the Jaguars are in a bad spot, having to go to Cincinnati next week where they will almost certainly be double digit underdogs (the early line is 11). Teams are 40-81 ATS before being double digit underdogs since 2010. […]

Oct 112014
 

Green Bay Packers (3-2) at Miami Dolphins (2-2) The Packers had a dominant win on Thursday Night Football last week, winning 42-10. However, that hurts them this week. The Packers will have had 10 days of basking in their own glory after last week’s blowout victory over the Buccaneers. Road favorites are 9-19 ATS after […]

Sep 272014
 

Miami Dolphins (1-2) at Oakland Raiders (0-3) in London The Dolphins should cover this spread fairly easily as mere 3.5 point favorites in a neutral site game against the pathetic Raiders. This line was at 7 last week before the Dolphins got blown out at home by the Chiefs. Obviously the line should have moved […]

Sep 202014
 

Kansas City Chiefs (0-2) at Miami Dolphins (1-1) One of my favorites trends involves road underdogs off of a road loss. Teams are 101-67 ATS in that situation since 2008, including 86-45 ATS when it’s their 2nd straight road game and they next play a home game. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate […]