May 122012
 

What is this madness? Well, though it may look like something straight out of lost (4,8,15,16,23,42) it is actually the NFL Draft Pick Trade Value Chart. Basically, it is the excepted numerical value of each pick and it is very useful for trying to do draft day trades. Say you had the 13th pick and wanted to move down to 18th. Since the 13th pick has a value of 1150 and the 18th pick has a value of 900, you would expect a pick with a value of near 250 (68th pick) in return for your swap. An example of poor use of this chart, Eric Mangini. When he moved down through 3 trades from 5th to 21st in 2009, he should have gotten 900 points worth of value in return. Instead, he got the 52nd pick (380), the 191st pick (15), the 195th pick (13.4), and three players from the Jets. Add that up and for the trade to be fair according to this chart, those 3 players from the Jets had to equal 491.6 points (roughly the 41st pick). Something tells me Kenyon Coleman, Abram Elam, and Brett Ratliff aren’t worth an early 2nd rounder.

Round 1

Round 2

Round 3

Round 4

Round 5

Round 6

Round 7

1

3,000

33

580

65

265

97

112

129

43

161

27

193

14.2

2

2,600

34

560

66

260

98

108

130

42

162

26.6

194

13.8

3

2,200

35

550

67

255

99

104

131

41

163

26.2

195

13.4

4

1,800

36

540

68

250

100

100

132

40

164

25.8

196

13

5

1,700

37

530

69

245

101

96

133

39.5

165

25.4

197

12.6

6

1,600

38

520

70

240

102

92

134

39

166

25

198

12.2

7

1,500

39

510

71

235

103

88

135

38.5

167

24.6

199

11.8

8

1,400

40

500

72

230

104

86

136

38

168

24.2

200

11.4

9

1,350

41

490

73

225

105

84

137

37.5

169

23.8

201

11

10

1,300

42

480

74

220

106

82

138

37

170

23.4

202

10.6

11

1,250

43

470

75

215

107

80

139

36.5

171

23

203

10.2

12

1,200

44

460

76

210

108

78

140

36

172

22.6

204

9.8

13

1,150

45

450

77

205

109

76

141

35.5

173

22.2

205

9.4

14

1,100

46

440

78

200

110

74

142

35

174

21.8

206

9

15

1,050

47

430

79

195

111

72

143

34.5

175

21.4

207

8.6

16

1,000

48

420

80

190

112

70

144

34

176

21

208

8.2

17

950

49

410

81

185

113

68

145

33.5

177

20.6

209

7.8

18

900

50

400

82

180

114

66

146

33

178

20.2

210

7.4

19

875

51

390

83

175

115

64

147

32.6

179

19.8

211

7

20

850

52

380

84

170

116

62

148

32.2

180

19.4

212

6.6

21

800

53

370

85

165

117

60

149

31.8

181

19

213

6.2

22

780

54

360

86

160

118

58

150

31.4

182

18.6

214

5.8

23

760

55

350

87

155

119

56

151

31

183

18.2

215

5.4

24

740

56

340

88

150

120

54

152

30.6

184

17.8

216

5

25

720

57

330

89

145

121

52

153

30.2

185

17.4

217

4.6

26

700

58

320

90

140

122

50

154

29.8

186

17

218

4.2

27

680

59

310

91

136

123

49

155

29.4

187

16.6

219

3.8

28

660

60

300

92

132

124

48

156

29

188

16.2

220

3.4

29

640

61

292

93

128

125

47

157

28.6

189

15.8

221

3

30

620

62

284

94

124

126

46

158

28.2

190

15.4

222

2.6

31

600

63

276

95

120

127

45

159

27.8

191

15

223

2.3

32

590

64

270

96

116

128

44

160

27.4

192

14.6

224

2

My issues with this chart:

High draft picks are valued too high. So the 1st pick is worth two 7th picks? What?! Let’s take a look at the last 12 7th picks and the last 12 1st picks

1st

2011: Cam Newton

2010: Sam Bradford

2009: Matt Stafford

2008: Jake Long

2007: JaMarcus Russell

2006: Mario Williams

2005: Alex Smith

2004: Eli Manning

2003: Carson Palmer

2002: David Carr

2001: Michael Vick

2000: Courtney Brown

7th

2011: Aldon Smith

2010: Joe Haden

2009: Darrius Heyward Bey

2008: Sedrick Ellis

2007: Adrian Peterson

2006: Michael Huff

2005: Troy Williamson

2004: Roy Williams (WR)

2003: Byron Leftwich

2002: Bryant McKennie

2001: Andre Carter

2000: Thomas Jones

I know the 1st pick group has a little more talent, but two times more? I would much rather have my pick of 4 of those 7th pick guys than 2 of those 1st pick guys.

Further showing this, Tom Brady was drafted with the 199th pick, value 11.8. I know Brady is an anomaly, but considering the 1st pick has a value of 3000, are you over 250 times more likely to draft a stud QB with the 1st pick than the 199th pick?

This is why so many of the teams that have had success this decade trade down. The Patriots do it every year and it’s no surprise that they lead the NFL in Super Bowl wins this decade.

 

 

 

 

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