Dec 202014
 

Philadelphia Eagles (9-5) at Washington Redskins (3-11) This is one of two games this week where the line is really off, according to rate of moving the chains differential (the other one is Chicago/Detroit). The Redskins haven’t been quite as bad as their record this season, moving the chains at a 70.28% rate, as opposed [...]

Dec 122014
 

Dallas Cowboys (9-4) at Philadelphia Eagles (9-4) The Eagles won in Dallas a few weeks ago, but that doesn’t mean these two teams aren’t even. The Eagles rank 11th, moving the chains at 71.46% rate, as opposed to 70.14% for their opponents, a differential of 1.32%. The Cowboys, very similarly, rank 14th, moving the chains [...]

Dec 062014
 

Seattle Seahawks (8-4) at Philadelphia Eagles (9-3) The Seahawks are not nearly as good on the road as they are at home. Since 2007, the Seahawks are 46-20 at home, including playoffs and they aren’t just having success straight up as they are 44-21-1 ATS. They outscore opponents on average by 7.80 points per game [...]

Nov 262014
 

Philadelphia Eagles (8-3) at Dallas Cowboys (8-3) The Cowboys have been horrible as home favorites since 2010, going 7-22 ATS in that situation. This isn’t unique to them as the whole NFC East recently has had less homefield advantage than average recently. At home, the NFC East is 73-82 since 2010, outscoring opponents by an [...]

Nov 222014
 

Tennessee Titans (2-8) at Philadelphia Eagles (7-3) Both of these teams will be divisional road underdogs next week, Philadelphia in Dallas and Tennessee in Houston, so both of them are in bad spots. Teams are 86-106 ATS since 2002 as non-divisional home favorites before being divisional road underdogs, while non-divisional road underdogs are 51-80 ATS [...]

Nov 152014
 

Philadelphia Eagles (7-2) at Green Bay Packers (6-3) Both of these two teams had blowout victories on national television last week, as the Eagles blew out the Panthers on Monday Night Football by the final score of 45-21 and the Packers blew out the Bears on Sunday Night Football by the final score of 55-14. [...]

Nov 082014
 

Philadelphia Eagles (6-2) at Carolina Panthers (3-5-1) The Eagles have lost Nick Foles for an extended period of time, but he had not been playing well. He was completing 59.8% of his passes for an average of 6.96 YPA, 13 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions and he wasn’t even as good as his numbers, ranking 29th [...]

Nov 012014
 

Philadelphia Eagles (5-2) at Houston Texans (4-4) This line had a significant movement from last week, moving two points from an even line to 2 points in favor of Philadelphia. It’s not a huge deal considering it’s still less than a field goal, but it still doesn’t make any sense that it would move like [...]

Oct 252014
 

Philadelphia Eagles (5-1) at Arizona Cardinals (5-1) I’m not happy that these two teams are playing each other because I think they’re two of the most overrated teams in football. Neither is as good as their record and yet one will advance to 6-1, though I guess that’ll make for easier betting situations in the [...]

Sep 232014
 

Philadelphia Eagles (3-0) at San Francisco 49ers (1-2) Ordinarily, I’d be all over the 49ers here considering how good they’ve been as big favorites and how good they’ve been off of a loss in the Jim Harbaugh era. Since 2011, the 49ers are 7-4-1 ATS off of a loss and 9-3 straight up, outscoring opponents [...]

Sep 182014
 

Washington Redskins (1-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (2-0) The Redskins looked very good in Kirk Cousins 2014 debut last week, as Robert Griffin went down with a significant ankle injury a few plays into what ended up being one of the most dominant performances by a team I’ve seen in a while. The Redskins moved the [...]

Sep 132014
 

Philadelphia Eagles (1-0) at Indianapolis Colts (0-1) The Eagles were down 17-0 early against the Jaguars last week at home, before coming back and winning 34-17. Their offense looked solid again, as it did last season with Nick Foles, but their defense continued to struggle. This line suggests these two teams are even, but I [...]

Sep 062014
 

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (0-0) The Jaguars are a popular “sleeper” team and are popularly seen as one of the most improved teams in the NFL this off-season. I don’t understand that at all. The Jaguars may have won 4 games last season, but they were even worse than their 4-12 record would [...]

Aug 172014
 

QB Nick Foles (Philadelphia) Foles broke into the lineup because of a Vick injury (what else) and took the starting job and ran with it, completing 64.0% of his passes for an average of 9.12 YPA, 27 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. He led the league in QB rating at 119.2, ahead of even Peyton Manning, [...]

Jan 022014
 

New Orleans Saints (11-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (10-6) At first glance, this line, which favors Philadelphia by 2.5 points, seems off. The Saints had a fantastic regular season on the whole, moving the chains at a 76.98% rate, as opposed to 68.85% for their opponents, a differential of 8.13% that ranks 2nd in the NFL. [...]

Dec 262013
 

Philadelphia Eagles (9-6) at Dallas Cowboys (8-7) I was kicking myself when I saw this line opened at Philadelphia -3. It was at Dallas -3 a week ago and there was no reason not to take that, even before Philadelphia demolished Chicago last week. For one, Philadelphia is obviously a better team than the Cowboys, [...]