Dec 242014
 

Carolina Panthers (6-8-1) at Atlanta Falcons (6-9) This line is off as it suggests the Falcons are the better of these two teams, considering they are favored by 4. Meanwhile, rate of moving the chains suggests the Panthers are the better team, as they rank 15th in the NFL, moving the chains at a 73.82% […]

Dec 202014
 

Atlanta Falcons (5-9) at New Orleans Saints (6-8) The Saints recently won 20 straight home games with Sean Payton and Drew Brees, covering in almost all of them (18-1-1 ATS), but they’ve since lost 4 straight games at home, all as favorites. On the season, they are just 2-5 ATS at home and oddly enough […]

Dec 052014
 

Atlanta Falcons (5-7) at Green Bay Packers (9-3) The Packers have been outstanding at home this season, moving the chains at an 80.51% rate, as opposed to 70.62% for their opponents, a differential of 9.89%. This home dominance is nothing new for them. Aaron Rodgers is 26-9-1 ATS at home since 2010 and 32-4 straight […]

Nov 132014
 

Carolina Panthers (3-6-1) at Atlanta Falcons (3-6) The Panthers are 3-6-1, but they’re even worse than their record suggests. Five of their 6 losses have come by 18 points or more (Green Bay, New Orleans, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia) and their -83 point differential is worse than every team’s but 5 (Oakland, Tampa Bay, NY Jets, […]

Nov 082014
 

Atlanta Falcons (2-6) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-7) The Falcons are coming off of a bye in this game. One of the more powerful trends says that road favorites dominant off of a bye, going 50-21 ATS since 2002, including 24-6 ATS in divisional matchups, like this one here. It makes sense as road favorites […]

Oct 222014
 

Detroit Lions (5-2) at Atlanta Falcons (2-5) in London This is technically a home game for the Falcons, but it’s a neutral site game in London. Given that, we’re getting significant line value with the Lions as either the Lions are being overrated or the Falcons are being underrated. The Lions rank 7th in the […]

Oct 162014
 

Atlanta Falcons (2-4) at Baltimore Ravens (4-2) The Falcons got off to a good start, which included a 56-14 home victory over division rival Tampa Bay week 3, which pushed them to 2-1. However, they’ve lost 3 straight now and haven’t really been playing that well. They are moving the chains at a 74.11% rate, […]

Sep 302014
 

Atlanta Falcons (2-2) at New York Giants (2-2) The Falcons’ road woes are well documented and they reared their head again last week as the Falcons lost to the Vikings and rookie quarterback Teddy Bridgewater in Minnesota, a week after blowing out the Buccaneers 56-14 on Thursday Night Football. Now they are once again on […]

Sep 272014
 

Atlanta Falcons (2-1) at Minnesota Vikings (1-2) Atlanta dominated last week at home against the Buccaneers, winning 56-14, moving the chains at an 82.05% rate, as opposed to 47.83% for the Buccaneers. However, now they go on the road to Minnesota and they haven’t had nearly as much success on the road in the Matt […]

Sep 182014
 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-2) at Atlanta Falcons (1-1) The Falcons looked pretty good week 1 against the Saints, but they fell flat on their face in Cincinnati last week. However, I expect them to bounce back here for three reasons. One, Jake Matthews is back from injury and will take over again on the blindside. […]

Sep 112014
 

Atlanta Falcons (1-0) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-0) I had the Bengals going 12-4 before the season started. I thought they were better than their record last season because they were able to be a dominant team (11-5) without relying on always winning the turnover battle. Turnover margins are really unpredictable and inconsistent on a week-to-week […]

Aug 172014
 

QB Matt Ryan (Atlanta) Last season, Matt Ryan had his worst quarterback rating since 2009, but a quarterback rating of 89.6 is still really solid and most of his statistical decline can be attributed to the decline of his supporting cast. He completed 67.4% of his passes for an average of 6.94 YPA, 26 touchdowns, […]