Feb 052017

Atlanta Falcons (13-5) vs. New England Patriots (16-2) in Super Bowl LI There are distinct differences between these two teams, but they have one impressive similarity: both teams have lost key players and played as well or better without them. On New England’s side, one of their losses was a self-inflicted one if you can […]

Jan 212017

Green Bay Packers (12-6) at Atlanta Falcons (12-5) Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are red hot right now and understandably getting a lot of attention. Since an unimpressive 4-6 start, the Packers have won 8 straight games to make the playoffs with a 10-6 record and to win two playoff games and advance to the […]

Jan 132017

Seattle Seahawks (11-5-1) at Atlanta Falcons (11-5) This might sound weird considering they finished with the 2nd best record in the NFC and secured a first round bye, but I think the Falcons are an underrated team. In a year with so few top level teams, I don’t understand why the Falcons are not regularly […]

Dec 242016

Atlanta Falcons (9-5) at Carolina Panthers (6-8) The Falcons are 9-5, but they’re actually even better than that suggests, as they’ve gone 9-5 despite a 3-4 record in games decided by a touchdown or less. In fact, they rank 2nd in the NFL in both first down rate differential and point differential, ahead of the […]

Dec 102016

Atlanta Falcons (7-5) at Los Angeles Rams (4-8) The Rams have been beaten badly in back-to-back games. First they couldn’t stop anything against the Saints, who scored 7 offensive touchdowns in a 49-21 victory. Then last week they couldn’t move the ball, not breaking 100 yards until a garbage time touchdown drive and totalling just […]

Dec 032016

Kansas City Chiefs (8-3) at Atlanta Falcons (7-4) For weeks, the Chiefs have been at the top of my overrated teams list. They’re still on the list, as they are overly reliant on winning close games (5 wins by a touchdown or fewer), winning the turnover margin (+14 on the season), and getting return touchdowns […]

Nov 122016

Atlanta Falcons (6-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (4-4) The Falcons are 6-3 and one of the better teams in the league this season thanks primarily to a high flying offense that leads the NFL with a first down or touchdown on a whopping 43.26% of snaps, including 50% in back-to-back games against the Packers and Buccaneers […]

Oct 222016

San Diego Chargers (2-4) at Atlanta Falcons (4-2) I’m torn on this one. On one hand, the Chargers are in a tough spot. Because of a weird scheduling quirk, this road game against the Falcons is wedged between two meetings in a three week period with division rival Denver on San Diego’s schedule. The Chargers […]

Oct 152016

Atlanta Falcons (4-1) at Seattle Seahawks (3-1) The Falcons have started an impressive 4-1, with wins over Oakland, Carolina, and Denver, three tough football teams. Last week, they beat the Broncos by a touchdown in Denver, as 4 point underdogs. This week, they’re 6.5 point underdogs in Seattle. The Seahawks are a better team than […]

Oct 082016

Atlanta Falcons (3-1) at Denver Broncos (4-0) The Broncos were on my overrated teams list before the season, but they’ve proven me wrong thus far this season. After winning just 4 total games by more than a touchdown last season (including playoffs), I said the Broncos would have to play better this season to win […]

Sep 172016

Atlanta Falcons (0-1) at Oakland Raiders (1-0) The Raiders won a crazy shootout in come-from-behind fashion last week in New Orleans, winning 35-34 in a game that had a combined 993 total yards of offense. The Raiders moved the chains at an impressive 82.86% rate, just slightly better than the 79.49% rate at which the […]

Jan 012016

New Orleans Saints (6-9) at Atlanta Falcons (8-7) The Falcons delivered the Carolina Panthers their first loss of the season last week, winning 20-13 at home as 7 point underdogs. It was certainly a legitimate win, as they won the rate of moving the chains differential battle 82.14% to 73.08%, but anyone betting them as […]

Dec 252015

Carolina Panthers (14-0) at Atlanta Falcons (7-7) The Panthers are 14-0, but that doesn’t mean they’ll take their foot off the gas, at least not this week and possibly not at all, as they attempt a perfect season. This week, they’re actually still playing for playoff seeding, as 2 straight losses to finish the season, […]

Dec 192015

Atlanta Falcons (6-7) at Jacksonville Jaguars (5-8) This line was even a week ago on the early line, but the Jaguars have since become field goal favorites, a significant line movement, considering about 1 in 4 games are decided by a field goal or less. I love fading significant line movements whenever it makes sense […]

Dec 122015

Atlanta Falcons (6-6) at Carolina Panthers (12-0) The Falcons have lost 5 straight games and 6 of 7 since starting 5-0, to drop them down to 6-6. They still rank 12th in rate of moving the chains differential, but it has to be mentioned that the Falcons have played arguably the league’s easiest schedule thus […]