Jan 062017

New York Giants (11-5) at Green Bay Packers (10-6) I always talk about the inconsistency of turnover margins and why using past turnover margins as evidence for predictions of future turnover margins is basically useless. On average, a team that wins the turnover battle by 4 in a game has a turnover margin of +0.0 […]

Dec 312016

New York Giants (10-5) at Washington Redskins (8-6-1) I typically don’t like to bet on teams that are expected to rest their starters, but I’m making an exception here because, even though this line suggests the Giants are going to rest their starters and they don’t have anything to play for locked into the 5th […]

Nov 262016

New York Giants (7-3) at Cleveland Browns (0-11) The Giants haven’t won a game by more than a touchdown all season and have a 7-2 record in games decided by a touchdown or less. Ordinarily, I like to pick against teams that are regularly squeaking out victories, especially as big favorites and especially as big […]

Nov 122016

Cincinnati Bengals (3-4-1) at New York Giants (5-3) This is a line I legitimately don’t understand. As a result of injuries and off-season losses, the Bengals are not the same team they were last season. They enter this game 15th in first down rate differential, a little better than 3-4-1 their record suggests, but average […]

Oct 222016

Los Angeles Rams (3-3) vs. New York Giants (3-3) at London The Rams have fallen back to earth in the last 2 weeks, losing back-to-back games after a surprising 3-1 start. They’re healthier now than they’ve been for a couple weeks, getting defensive ends Robert Quinn and William Hayes back from injury, but they’re still […]

Oct 012016

New York Giants (2-1) at Minnesota Vikings (3-0) The Vikings are the most overrated of the remaining undefeated teams. They’ve played a tough schedule, including wins over Green Bay and Carolina, but they haven’t won the rate of moving the chains battle in any of their three games. In fact, they enter this game 27th […]

Dec 242015

New York Giants (6-8) at Minnesota Vikings (9-5) The Giants have lost wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. for this critical late season game, as he was suspended for a game for a number of personal fouls in last week’s loss to the Carolina Panthers, including a headbutt of cornerback Josh Norman. The Vikings, meanwhile, get […]

Dec 122015

New York Giants (5-7) at Miami Dolphins (4-8) The Giants host the Panthers next week (against whom they’ll be 3.5 point home underdogs), so they could easily be caught looking forward to that game this week, when they face the Dolphins in Miami, a game in which they’re favored by 2.5. Road favorites like the […]