Green Bay Packers (4-2) at Minnesota Vikings (1-5)
Josh Freeman was awful last week. He threw 33 incompletions (only 3 of which were drops) on 20 of 53 passing for 190 yards and an interception against a team that was previously one of the worst in the NFL defensively. ProFootballFocus said his performance graded out as the worst they’ve graded since they started in 2008 and it pretty much broke their grading system. It wasn’t totally his fault though. He definitely deserves a lot of the blame because his mechanics and accuracy looked awful, but he wasn’t put in a situation to succeed by the coaching staff. He had been with the team just 14 days and clearly didn’t know the playbook and understandably so.
The Vikings are lucky that he won’t be able go this week with a concussion (or they’re smart for inventing a concussion). Christian Ponder isn’t very good because of his limited arm, but he at least knows the playbook. He played pretty well at home against the Packers last year, completing 16 of 28 for 234 yards and 3 touchdowns, as his lack of arm strength can kind of be hidden inside in a dome where there is no wind. For that reason, I can’t put a lot of confidence in the Packers even though they should be the right side. They’ll be completely focused with only a game at home for the Bears and Josh McCown next week. Divisional road favorites are 36-22 ATS before being divisional away favorites since 2002.
Green Bay Packers 27 Minnesota Vikings 17
Pick against spread: Green Bay -9.5