Green Bay Packers (9-4) at Oakland Raiders (6-7)
The public is all over the Packers this week, as 3.5 point favorites in Oakland. That’s not a surprise. Betting that the Packers will beat the Raiders by 4 or more points must seem like free money to a lot of people. I’m going the other way though. I love fading the public whenever it makes sense, because the public always loses money in the long run, and in this one, it definitely makes sense. The Packers rank 7th in rate of moving the chains differential, but the Raiders rank 12th. That suggests this line should be around even. Instead, we’re getting 3.5 points with the Raiders, which is huge, considering about 1 in 4 games are decided by a field goal or less.
The Raiders are also in a way better spot. While the Packers go to Arizona next week, for arguably the toughest game of their season, the Raiders host the Chargers, which is arguably their easiest game of the season. Teams are 101-169 ATS since 2008 as favorites before being underdogs when their opponent will next be favorites, including 11-23 ATS over that time period as road favorites. The Packers could definitely overlook the Raiders this week with such a tough game on deck, while the Raiders are highly unlikely to overlook the Packers. I like the Raiders to win outright, so I’ll take the 3.5 points in a heartbeat for my Pick of the Week.
Oakland Raiders 23 Green Bay Packers 20 Upset Pick +155
Pick against the spread: Oakland+3.5
Confidence: Pick of the Week