Green Bay Packers (4-4) at Tennessee Titans (4-5)
The Titans may be just 4-5, but they actually rank 7th in the NFL in first down rate differential. They’ve been competitive in every game and have a -9 point differential on the season, despite being -7 in return touchdown differential. Aside from those 7 plays, they have a +39 point differential (which would be 6th best in the NFL) and have quietly played very solid football this season. They have 10 more first downs than their opponents on the season and, in offensive touchdowns, they have a +9 advantage (27 to 18).
The Packers are also better than their record, as their 3 of their losses have come by a combined 9 points and were all very winnable games. They could easily be 6-2 or 7-1 right now and rank 5th in first down rate differential. However, because the Packers are the Packers and the Titans are the Titans, the odds makers have underrated the Titans, but not the Packers here, even though these two teams actually have very similar records. The Packers are favored by a field goal here in Tennessee, so we’re getting great line value with the hosts. These two teams are much more even than people realize. About 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal and 1 in 4 games are decided by a field goal or less, so the Titans at 3 are my Pick of the Week this week.
Tennessee Titans 23 Green Bay Packers 20 Upset Pick +140
Pick against the spread: Tennessee +3
Confidence: Pick of the Week